Post Photo: Blue Tsunami November 3, 2020 | © Pixabay
The developments in the USA still concern me. There is a discussion going on over there about where the Republican Party will go. Will Donald Trump continue to set the pace — this is to be feared — or can the GOP “free itself” in the near future and renew itself politically and morally. No matter what happens, Europe and Germany will be affected by the outcome.
Such questions have not been discussed much in our country up to now. I wrote the enclosed paper on this — it got longer and longer as I worked on it.
Originally I wanted to add a chapter on "Consequences and challenges for Europe", but this would have made the paper even longer. Maybe I'll write a separate paper on that.
"America is Back" — But where are Republicans going?
The new US President broadcast to the virtual Munich Security Conference on February 19.2.2021, XNUMX Joe Biden A clear message from the White House in Washington DC: "We are sending a clear message to the world: America is back!" Donald Trump breathed a sigh of relief in November 2020; Now it's official: the end of the "America first" policy has been heralded.
After four years of Trump, the great cleanup – political and moral – has begun in the United States. Thomas L Friedman wrote in his New York Times column on 20.1.21/20.1.2021/XNUMX: "This has been a horrible, horrible experiment... I honestly believe we can get back to our best, it's up to all of us to make that happen." On the occasion At the inauguration on January XNUMX, XNUMX, the new president advised his compatriots and the world: “There is truth and there are lies, lies that are told for the sake of power and one’s own profile; but every leader has a duty and responsibility as a citizen, as an American, and especially as a leader who has pledged to honor our Constitution and protect our country, defend the truth and defeat the lies.” The direction of those words was clear, without Biden having to name his predecessor who was voted out.
In terms of foreign policy, Biden's "America is back!" signifies a promise to allies that diplomacy will now come first, that US politics will again be predictable and relevant and less impulsive and personified. The allies have clarity again - as do the opponents in Moscow, Beijing and elsewhere. In a report on the president's speech to the virtual Munich security conference, which Biden had frequently attended in person in the past, the New York Times writes of "something of a homecoming" - "something like a homecoming", but also notes that the country has lost some of its strength and influence over the last four years.
The Biden administration has already initiated the foreign policy change of course. The United States has rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement. The blockade against the election of Ngozi Okonjo-Iwela from Nigeria to Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) was abandoned. For Trump, bilateral trade deals were the ultimate; It will be interesting to see what will become of the WTO.
Of particular significance given the pandemic, Biden has announced the reversal of the US withdrawal from the WHO; he pledged to provide two billion dollars for the procurement of corona vaccine for developing countries; another four billion dollars are to follow by 2022.
Along with Britain, France and Germany, the United States will seek to revive the nuclear deal with Iran that Trump unilaterally withdrew. This will be a difficult undertaking, because those in power in Tehran will expect additional guarantees that the Americans will not jump out again one day. When and how can the sanctions Trump has imposed on Iran be lifted? Mutual distrust has grown as all the problems of the Middle East are on the table.
The new American President has expressly committed himself to the mutual support obligation between the NATO partners: “We want to keep our word. An attack on one is an attack on all.” The withdrawal of troops from Germany announced by Trump, ordered by Trump as a punitive action against Germany, has been stopped. The troop withdrawal had been criticized by both Democratic and Republican senators.
After showing all the changes that took place at the beginning of the Democratic President's term Joe Biden looming, I want to address an issue that's hotly debated in the United States: what will become of the Republican Party? From the once proud GOP (Government of the People) the Donald Trumpp, and which is deeply torn and divided at both the top and the bottom after the election defeat and everything that has happened since. Will the GOP continue to embrace Trump's slogans, "America first!" and "Make America great." again!” (MAGA) or are you looking for a new programmatic basis? The outcome of the internal disputes among the Republicans in America is currently completely open. It would not be appropriate for Europe to want to give cheap advice on how to solve the tricky situation. Republicans must solve their own problems. However, it makes sense, if not necessary, to keep a close eye on the struggles over the future of the conservative party in America, because whatever the outcome, it will have immediate repercussions for Europe and also for Germany. Trump has indicated several times that he will be back in the running for the presidency in 2024. While much can be done before then, another Trump presidency would start all over again the drama that allies thought they had put behind them. The allies and also the opponents of the USA will have to take this unforeseeable uncertainty into account in the near future.
Quo vadis America? Putin will hope China is strong enough to remain calm and Iran will be very cautious. Donald Trumpwill address the Conservative Public Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando, Florida on 28.2.21/XNUMX/XNUMX and will likely announce his future plans.
Before the eyes of the world: tall tales, storming the Capitol, impeachment and acquittal for Trump
Before and after deselecting Donald Trump On November 3.11.2020, 4.1.21, the question was discussed in the United States as to whether he would voluntarily leave the White House at the end of his term of office, since he had not made the usual admission to the end that he had lost the election. On the contrary! Trump and his supporters, his party friends and also parts of the media world, such as Fox News, told new lies every day about election fraud, fraud, reprogrammed voting machines - the election victory had been "stolen" from him. Trump could not provide evidence. Through legal channels, his appeals - from the lower levels to the Supreme Court - were unsuccessful. As the chances of legal recourse dwindled, the public appearances and declarations grew ever more strident. The New York Times wrote of erratic behavior on XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX. Trump is now trying to overturn the election results of several swing states using dubious means. So he continued in a long phone conversation Brad Raffensperger, a Republican and Trump supporter who runs the Georgia election, is under intense pressure to "find" enough votes to knock Biden out of the race. He had Michigan Republican politicians come to the White House, expecting them not to recognize the Biden election results there, and finally he harassed his vice president Mike Pence, he should reject the result reports from the states, although the constitution does not grant the Vice President any authority to do so.
On Wednesday, January 6, 2021, a drama unfolds in Washington DC before the eyes of the world that has never happened before in American history: Spurred on by their own president, large numbers of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol, where the According to the US Constitution, the representatives and senators were there to formally receive the election results of the 50 individual states and finally the election victory of Joe Biden officially confirm. The aggressive and partly armed mob spread fear and terror. The session was interrupted and the people's representatives had to be brought to safety fearing for their lives,
"We are here because 'our president' called us," the attackers said. They yelled "Stop the steal" and "Hang Mike Pence' and also showed what spirited children they are in other respects. On February 26.2.21, XNUMX, the New York Times reported on the bad experiences of the black police officer Harry Dunn, who has served with the Capitol Police for 13 years. Dunn is over 1,90'6, a closet of a man, and yet the events of January XNUMX were enough to scare him. Dunn describes how the rioting and clashes at the Capitol began when participants in the big Trump rally rushed to the Capitol in large numbers and breached the outer perimeter perimeter. "They're fighting. They're throwing smoke bombs. These were terrorists. They had weapons, and they were attacking us.” Those images, and what happened later, were broadcast on television around the world.
During the bloody clashes in the rooms of the Capitol, wild insults were poured out on the police officers. "I got called... a couple dozen times today," reports Dunn; everyone knows the common swear word for Afro-Americans and is not mentioned in the NYT report. Dunn reports on a conversation with a colleague after hours of arguments and fights: "I'm looking at him. He's got blood on him. I've got bloody knuckles. We're hurting. "Is this America?" and I started crying. Tears are coming down my face. "Is this America?" A black cop cried over his country! (New York Times 26.2.21/XNUMX/XNUMX: “Battling the Mob, a Black Officer Came Face to Face With Racism”).
The term "Insurrection" - riot, uprising - appears in the newspaper headlines in the following days. Almost prophetically, Der Spiegel wrote before the US elections:
Der Spiegel – No. 45/30.10.20/XNUMX/XNUMX
“Whether Donald Trump wins or loses Tuesday's election, hatred and political discord will cripple the country for years to come. The President has damaged the political system so massively that it is almost impossible to repair it.”
This description in the mirror was certainly not exaggerated. The New York Times described Trump's efforts to reverse the election results on 4/5.1.21/XNUMX/XNUMX - i.e. immediately before the storming of the Capitol - as a completely unimaginable scenario, but one that had been feared since the beginning of his term in office. “Trump's attempts sound familiar to anyone who has studied authoritarian regimes around the world, such as that of the President Vladimir VPutin in Russia and Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Hungary,” says the NYT report. (New York Times, 4/5.1.21/XNUMX: "The Insurgency From Inside the Oval Office") - What is remarkable about this quote for Europeans is that scientists and journalists repeatedly cite Orban's Hungary as an example of an authoritarian regime alongside Putin's Russia. This should finally prompt the EU to take action.
After the storm on the Capitol on January 6.1.2021th, 3.11.2020, five people died. A strange security situation had developed in the United States and especially in the capital Washington DC after the elections on November 2rd, 6. The Capitol is still sealed off with fences and barbed wire and is guarded by the National Guard. The security measures cost XNUMX million dollars a day. But rather than reassure the country after the election, the President threw the match in the powder keg at the Jan. XNUMX event when he delivered a long and fiery speech urging his fans and supporters to go to the Capitol and "fight like the devil." “ – “fight like hell!”
After that, the Democrats had no other choice: they had to fight the second impeachment trial in the House of Representatives in order to remain credible for their advocacy and defense of the constitution Donald Trump initiate. This time for "Incitement of Insurrection" - "(Incitement of Insurrection"). Ten Republican lawmakers voted with Democrats in the House of Representatives to impeach. liz cheney, a top Republican leader in the House justified her vote by saying that there had never been a greater betrayal by a president of his office and his oath to the Constitution. Like the other 9 Republican MPs who agreed to the indictment, she has experienced criticism, reprimands and insults from her own ranks.
In the subsequent trial before the Senate, the prosecutors (House Managers) presented convincing evidence and arguments linking the words and deeds Donald Trumps and the storming of the Capitol. In addition to the 50 votes of the Democrats, a further 17 Republican senator votes would have been needed in the Senate to impeach him and make it impossible for him to hold public office in the future. But only 7 Republicans found Trump guilty. The two-thirds majority was not reached in the final vote on February 13.2.2021, XNUMX, and Trump was thus acquitted again.
The 43 Republican senators had a procedural bridge Donald Trump given the opportunity to run again for the presidency, possibly in 2024. The reasoning was: Trump's current term of office had already ended on January 20 and it was not possible to subsequently remove Trump from office as a private individual. In fact, this has never happened before in impeachment proceedings against a president. However, many American constitutional lawyers are of the opinion that this is not excluded by the constitution. Subsequent removals from office have certainly been carried out in the past for lower-ranking officials. Trump's acquittal could one day fall at Republicans' feet. He remains eligible to run for the presidency.
Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican faction leader, delivered a tour de force of political tactics in all of this Niccolo Machiavelli would certainly have enjoyed it. First, McConnell delayed the start of the Senate process until Trump's term was up. Then he issued the motto that the private individual Trump could not be subsequently removed from office and voted for acquittal himself. Immediately after the decision, he delivered a fiery speech in the Senate, declaring that there was no doubt Trump had shamefully neglected his duties - but that regular justice was now responsible. The commentator of the Heilbronner voice wrote: "The acquittal for Donald Trump also shows the bottom of the Republicans in the USA" (Thomas Spang: "Political bootlickers"; Heilbronn voice: 15.2.21).
Many of the Capitol strikers may have proudly gone home on the evening of January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX and felt like "great patriots". Some Republican lawmakers may have seen Trump's acquittal as a political victory. They don't seem to realize what they have done to their country's reputation in the eyes of the world. The USA became a politically and morally weakened country. How bizarre it sounds, given all the television footage of the storming of the Capitol, when Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, at the Senate investigation that began in mid-February, said that left-wing provocateurs and false Trump supporters were among the mob. What a fairy tale! The senator did not provide any evidence. Anyone who has seen the rioters on TV, with MAGA caps, banners, Trump flags, Confederate flags and even Christian crosses, has realized: these people were real, they were not Trump dummies or left-wing actors who were staging a riot have played. Subsequent arrests and charges bear this out.
But why does an honorable senator tell such unbelievable stories and for whom are they intended? Trump will be happy with the senator from Wisconsin. The world watched the odd performance, and many may have shaken their heads in amazement, but the new American "patriots" don't seem to care. For all our deep-rooted sympathy for America, I ask: How can a country be a model of democracy and the rule of law in the world whose president incites an armed mob to storm the parliament and whose friends in that parliament then protect that same president from any sanctions? American diplomats will have a difficult time in the near future, for example when they reprimand China for its actions in Hong Kong. China's head of state Xi Jinping will give you friendly greetings with a mild smile Donald Trump Apply.
The Republican Party (GOP) – Torn at the top, Trump surrendered at the base
With a few examples, I want to show where America is after four years of Trump's presidency. On 18.2.21/XNUMX/XNUMX, the New York Times reported that the Pentagon leadership met with Secretary of Defense Mark T Esper and general Mark A Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, withheld two very special applications for promotion until after the elections on November 3.11.20rd, XNUMX, so as not to endanger them. One speculated in the Pentagon on the election victory of Joe Biden; the calculation may now actually work out with other staff in the White House. It was the promotion of two highly qualified generals to four-star rank. The problem with this: It was about two women, about qualified candidates, but you knew from previous experience that the Trump White House was very reluctant to do so. The Pentagon held out even as Trump six days after the election Mark Esper had fired.
The example shows the distrust between the White House and parts of the administration, which was not only present in the military. At the State Department, diplomats who were loyal to Trump have left Mike Pompeo didn't want to work. The FBI and the secret services felt let down when Trump, for example, believed Putin more than his own services. Trump did not think much of his corona experts or other scientists when making public statements.
The political attitudes of the American public are documented by a CBS News survey published on February 9.2.21, XNUMX (CBS News poll: "Majority favor conviction as impeachment trial begins, but many Republicans urge loyalty to Trump"). The following results are interesting on the topics of Trump and GOP:
About the impeachment process:
Should the Senate - condemn Trump: 56%
– Do not condemn Trump 44%
Republican attitudes:
How important is loyalty to Trump to the party – very important 46%
– somewhat important 27%
– not very important 15%
– not important at all 12%
Attitude of Republicans:
Should Trump form his own party, would they join?
Yes 33%
maybe 37%
no 30%
In these numbers lies one of the reasons for the behavior of the party leadership and the base of the Republican Party when it comes to the political future of Donald Trump goes. Where do you want the GOP to go? The struggle over the future direction of the party is in full swing.
For the leadership elite in Washington DC, the main question is how the lost ground, especially the majority in the Senate, can be regained in the midterms, the next elections in 2022: With or without, or even against Trump? These longer-term tactical considerations are overshadowed by the (still) existing uncertainty as to whether Trump will run for the presidency again in 2024. Should he do so, a reorientation of the party would not be possible in the foreseeable future. Personal profiling attempts by individual politicians would have to be put on hold for a long time.
In the party base, completely different questions are in the foreground: How loyal are you to Trump? How to punish the "traitors" who did not support or criticize Trump in the House and Senate? 73 percent of Republicans consider loyalty to Trump important or even very important. Trump can use this pound to grow when planning his future or when he campaigns against critics in the GOP. According to the base, critics of Trump must be confronted with Trump-loyal opponents in the primary elections. This means that anyone who criticizes Trump is jeopardizing their political career. This fact is also reflected in the fact that of the 7 senators who voted to condemn Trump on February 13.2.21, 2, 3 will retire and 2026 will not stand for re-election until 2. So only XNUMX of Trump's opponents took the "full risk".
The Washington DC establishment is very sensitive to the mood of its home base, and that varies considerably by constituency. On February 13.2.21, 7, Der Spiegel reported on the mood in the countryside of Georgia (Der Spiegel, No. 13.2.21, February XNUMX, XNUMX: "Miss America"). The chair of the GOP in one district of the conspiracy theorist's constituency Marjorie Taylor Greene is quoted as saying, "We need someone to protect America and protect us from socialism." What is meant by socialism in upstate Georgia becomes clear when the woman rails against state health insurance, "which only benefits those , who lay on the lazy skin". "If someone in town gets sick and can't pay their medical bills, we collect donations or have a barbecue to raise the money. We don't need the state, we take care of ourselves.” A very romantic idea of social and economic policy that has long been outdated in supposedly “socialist” Europe, because healthy citizens contribute far more to the common good than sick ones. Herein lies one of the reasons for the Republican fight against Obamacare.
The Chair of the Gordon County GOP reflects deeply held beliefs. Anyone who wants to be elected here cannot talk about new social security systems. Marjorie Taylor Green put her democratic opponent in her place on November 3.11.20rd, 74,7 with 2020 percent. The Republicans in a swing state like Georgia - they lost both Senate seats to the Democrats in the XNUMX runoff - are faced with a dilemma: How can you bring back the lost voters in the urban surroundings of large cities, such as Atlanta, without the Ur -Losing conservatives in the flat country? They in particular are willing to join a Trump party. In the American two-party system, however, two conservative parties don't stand a chance.
It's reports like this from the rural base of the GOP that not only show how the people there think, but above all where the strengths for Donald Trump to lie. “For any Republican candidate going forward, how close your relationship with Trump is will be absolutely critical,” said a rural Central Committee member of the Virginia Republican Party (cited by Hubert Wezel: "Ex-president isn't it"; sueddeutsche.de 25.2.21). This means it would be too soon Donald Trump write off politically. What happens in Washington DC is one thing, what happens in the countryside is another. Republicans in the countryside will have a major say in the future of the GOP; they will want Trump on board. This race is not decided yet. But it will also be decisive whether Biden and the Democratic majority in both houses succeed in shaping a successful policy and thus winning the midterms in two years and the elections in 2024.
In this stalemate, many Republicans are acting cautiously and cautiously. 100 percent Trump fans, such as the senators, are currently speaking up Ted Cruz from Texas and Ron Johnson from Wisconsin on the one hand or the absolute Trump opponents, like the MP Adam kinzinger from Illinois on the other side. KInzinger was not only reprimanded by his own party for agreeing to the charges against Trump, but also publicly pilloried by his own relatives. "We only live in fear," Kinzinger is quoted as saying in the New York Times. “Fear of the Democrats, fear of the future, fear of everything. This will work for a term or two. The problem is, it will do terrible harm to democracy" (NYT 16.2.21/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Adam Kinzinger's Lonely Mission"). In the Heilbronner Voice, a cousin of KInzinger was quoted as saying that her cousin had joined the "devil's army" (Heilbronner Voice, February 18.2.21, XNUMX: "lonely struggle").
From afar, the once-proud Republican Party now looks like a game of pick-and-stick balls. Even the smallest vibration changes the position of the rods. One could also speak of a shark tank in which everyone watches everyone else suspiciously. Whoever moves first loses. So far no one from the top echelon has thrown their hat in the ring. Everyone is currently working. according to your own plan but on your own account. senator Lindsey Graham traveled to Trump in Florida to win him over to constructive cooperation in the next elections. Trump is the most convincing man in the party. Kevin McCarthy, the House faction leader, was the first of the top echelons to knock on Trump's door at Mar-a-Lago. More "pilgrimages" are likely to follow in the near future.
A different, in my opinion far-sighted tactics pursued Mitch McConnell, the parliamentary group leader in the Senate. He had voted against Trump's conviction and then publicly shot him through the wolf. My impression was: someone is trying to carry water on both shoulders. Trump immediately fired back and called on Republicans to replace McConnell. Unlike the others, this one will not travel to Florida; he has not spoken to Trump since 15.12.20/17.2.21/XNUMX. CNN posted on the internet on XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX: “McConnell's plan for how to treat Trump: Ignore him.” He wants a GOP without Trump and is working to bring Republicans together to fight the Biden agenda. Should he succeed, he would once again be the hero of the party who prevented the breakup. But even then, the Republicans would probably be faced with the question again in a few years' time: What price does the party have to pay in order to be able to look at the citizens with honest eyes. Or – looking at it from the outside: What moral foundation does the country need in order to be recognized as a leading power in the world? The GOP has a political and a moral problem.
Two more names should be mentioned here: Mike Pence, the vice president under Trump, and the MP mentioned earlier Marjorie Taylor Greene, from Virginia, who Der Spiegel described as the new star of the far right. At first glance, one could see Pence as the tragic figure in royal drama. As vice president, he had the chance to succeed the incumbent in the running for the presidency. But Trump lost, and when Pence didn't do what his boss wanted him to do and what he couldn't do under the Constitution, Trump cleared him for firing. With the battle cry "Hang Mike Pence' Trump's supporters marched through the Capitol. A tragic figure? Maybe. But I can't feel sorry for him. Pence knew what he was dealing with Donald Trump admitted. He made him eligible for evangelicals, he stood by Trump for four years, praised him and was often silent when he could or should have said something. Trump could not have fired the vice president like he could have fired his secretary of state Rex Tillerson, his chief of staff John Kellyor nearing the end his Minister of Justice William Barr and the Secretary of Defense Mark Esper.
I remember a TV broadcast from the Corona task force that Pence was responsible for. He has effusively announced a brief address from Trump, praising his foresight and wisdom in planning and dictating the pandemic. He did this to enhance Trump's public image, perhaps also to flatter him. But how may he have felt about it, because he knew that Trump knew internally about the danger of the virus, but publicly downplayed and downplayed it. Perhaps Pence will explain in his memoirs how the system worked inside Trump and thus do autocracy research a service.
Zu Marjorie Taylor Greene I venture a prediction that she won't make the senior Republican leadership echelon. She may excite her constituents in Gordon County, Georgia, but she won't be able to win over the Democrat-leaning people in the urban regions. In the 2020 GOP nominee search primaries, she has the neurosurgeon John Cowan kicked out of the race. Its program read: “Pro live, pro Trump; per gun". Cowans is certainly not a progressive Republican either. He later remarked: "The lady is crazy." (Der Spiegel, No. 7/February 13.2.2021, XNUMX).
What will become of the Republican Party is currently not foreseeable. Either a personality cult party with a two-word program: "Donald Trump." Or there is a return to American conservatism – although this was no longer particularly pronounced even before Trump. Trump will shake up the GOP in his speech at CPAC on 28.2.21/XNUMX/XNUMX. I will observe the developments with interest - out of respect and also out of emotional ties to America. It's not my place to give advice. But whatever happens, Europe will be affected.
