Posted by Hans Müller on Apr 16, 2024 at 22:08 p.m

Contents

• Phase II of the US elections has begun - The caucuses in Iowa took place on January 15.1.2024, XNUMX
• A special feature in Iowa: the caucus events
• The Iowa Caucus results
• Iowa does not confirm all predictions
• On the importance of New Hampshire – A look back
• Breaking News: DeSantis throws down
• The New Hampshire primary results for the Republicans
• Biden Democrats win NH primary
• The New Hampshire primary results for the Democrats
• A few insights from the New Hampshire primary
• Hat Nikki Haley another chance?
• South Carolina Republican Primary on February 24.2.2024, XNUMX
• Who Donald Trump South Carolina has turned around
• Michigan Primaries on February 27.2.2024, XNUMX – Various open questions
• Super Tuesday – March 5.3.2024, XNUMX – No surprises
• The final round has begun – from speeches from Donald Trump
• Joe Bidens “State of the Union Address”
• Economic policy and other fundamentally different approaches
• Why enjoy Donald Trump so highly regarded by white evangelical Christians? – On the “deification of a sinner”
• Electoral scolding?
• America is experiencing a dirty election campaign
• Trump rambles
• Auch Biden can distribute
• The political climate in the USA has become worse
• What if …? – The concerns of Americans
• The big goal of the Heritage Foundation: The anchoring of the Trumpism
• Who cares...?
• What if … Trump is not elected?
• Senator's Plan B Chuck Schumer
• What if …. The concerns of Europeans
• Pragmatic approaches from the Federal Chancellor
• And what else?
• Europe – What to do?
• Who develops a future strategy?
• The last

 

Phase II of the US elections has begun - The caucuses in Iowa took place on January 15.1.2024, XNUMX

In the middle of preparing this paper, there was breaking news on January 21.1.2024, XNUMX: Ron De Santis throw down! This was to be expected, but so soon? I'll report on the developments leading up to the task later.

In part 1 of my forum post - dated January 1.1.2024st, 5.11.2024 - I looked at a number of developments in the United States and various aspects in the run-up to the actual election campaign. The US presidential election will take place on November 1th, 2. At the end of Part XNUMX, I gave an outlook on various topics to be discussed in Part XNUMX, for example “The Fascism Discussion in the United States” and an examination of the two American parties. Given developments in the Iowa caucuses, I would like to leave these topics for a later post. For this I ask for your indulgence.

Part 2 presented here will focus on a whole series of developments among the Republicans. This is not least because the Democrats only began their primaries on February 3.2.2024, XNUMX in South Carolina - this has Joe Biden clearly won. Standing in New Hampshire Biden not on the state's official ballot on January 23.1.2024, XNUMX. He entered the race as a so-called “write-in candidate”. His name had to be added by hand by the voters. Bidens Opponents were the congressman Dean Phillips from Minnesota and the author Marianne Williamson from Texas - both have since given up their campaigns. The president also won his party's primaries in New Hampshire. His candidacy is being intensively discussed in the media and is also not without controversy in parts of the Democratic Party.

In the final chapter of Part 1 I discussed the political priorities and also the difficulties of the application campaign Ron De Santis, the governor of Florida. The Süddeutsche Zeitung had written: “At the start of his campaign DeSantis as the only Republican politician who is the high favorite Trump could become dangerous, a good two months later he is seen in large parts of Washington as the overrated candidate in the field” (sueddeutsche.de, August 1.8.2023, XNUMX: “Wrong target group, wrong strategy”).

This – and this seems to me to be one of the key findings of the Republican caucus meetings (primaries) in Iowa on January 15.1.2024, XNUMX – has not changed in the meantime. Contrary to previous forecasts, the DeSantis in Iowa even behind Nikki Haley We only saw him in third place, but he defended second place - a long way behind Trump Haley stayed close on his heels and went optimistically into the next Republican round on January 23.1.2024, XNUMX in New Hampshire. 

The USA correspondent of the Heilbronner Stimme, Thomas Spang, wrote on the situation of the Florida governor's campaign: "DeSantis has reached the end of the line. Even if he ends up just ahead Haley there is no realistic path for him to be nominated. He should drop out of the race" (Heilbronn voice, January 17.1.2024, XNUMX: “Harrowing reality”; Comment from Thomas Spang).

I want to draw a final connection to Part 1. It's about the campaign Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, who, in contrast to Nikki Haley and all other Republican candidates with clearly critical statements against Donald Trump had gone into battle. He had no chance of becoming the Republican presidential candidate. Party friends had advised him to go in favor of Rum Desantis and Nikki Haley to get out. I had assumed that he would still run in New Hampshire on January 23.1.2024, 10.1.2024, because the Republican voter base there is more favorable to him than in Iowa. But my guess was wrong: on January XNUMX, XNUMX Christie gave up the race. He did not make an endorsement, on the contrary: he denounced his opponents for having held the former president in public for a very long time. “I would rather lose for telling the truth than lie to win.” Some of his supporters complied Christie's Withdrawal disappointed and perplexed. The New York Times quoted about it Tom Barton from Washington, NH, who had intended Christie to vote and said he couldn't support another Republican: "You don't have the courage to tell the truth about Trump to say.” However, it was suspected before the caucus meetings in Iowa that his withdrawal in particular Nikki Haley will be useful, since their political ideas in foreign policy, national security and the rule of law are largely the same as those of Chris Christie cover. Christie However, when he left, his party once again warned of the dangers of another presidency Donald Trump warned (nytimes.com, January 10.1.2024, XNUMX: “Christie's Exit Is Jolted as Hot Mic Picks Up His Unvarnished View of Rivals”).

Not without an ironic and bitter undertone Christie: “Imagine for a moment what would have happened if Donald Trump would have been sitting behind the desk when 9/11 (the attack on the World Trade Center on September 11.9.2001, 2016) happened. The first thing he would have done was run into the bunker to protect himself. He would have put himself first, not the country, and anyone who refuses to determine that he (Trump) is unfit to be President of the United States is themselves unfit to be President of the United States.” Ultimately, there is something like a bit of self-justification in this statement. He may have later regretted supporting Trump in XNUMX. That's probably why he described his current campaign as something like a reparations tour. In the report of the New York Times shall Chris Christie described as a member of the Republican old guard and further noted: “It is not to be expected that the address of Mr Christie will move even one needle within the Republican Party. Many of the outstanding people have tried this in recent years without success.” The NYT mentions, among other things My Romney, of Trump as a “fraud”, as well as liz cheney, can Trump accused of having “declared war on the constitutional state.” Your statements have been published in the GOP hardly does anything (nytimes.com, October 10.1.2024, XNUMX: “Chris Christie Goes Down Swinging at Trump and Pleading With His Party”).

 

A special feature in Iowa: the caucus events

Unlike in most US states, the primary elections are ongoing (Primaries) in Iowa is not like normal elections, in which voters come to a polling station, fill out the ballot, put it in a ballot box and then go home. In Iowa find so-called caucuses instead of meetings of the parties, which serve to come together, discuss and at the end throw a piece of paper with a name into an urn. It can certainly happen that those entitled to vote come to the polls with an idea of ​​who they want to vote for caucuses came, but changed their minds during the course of the event.  

Thomas Spang, the USA correspondent of the Heilbronn voice headlined his preliminary report on Iowa with “How strong is Donald tramp really?"  Trump was far ahead in the polls with 48 percent. "For DeSantis It's all about everything on Monday evening. “He visited 99 constituencies and tried to sell himself as Trump without drama.” However, he was in the polls Haley with 20 percent DeSantis with only 16 percent. Haley fought for second place in Iowa: “If Haley an DeSantis passes, she would have the chance to emerge as a clear alternative in New Hampshire Donald Trump to offer.”

The state of Iowa has 99 counties. On January 15.1.2024, 1, 657 caucus meetings took place there. The primary phase of the American election campaign ends with the party conferences of the two parties. The Republicans will meet from July 15th to 18.7.2024th, 19 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin; the Democrats from August 22.8.2024th to XNUMXnd, XNUMX in Chicago, Illinois. (Sources: Heilbronn voice, January 15.1.2024, XNUMX: How strong is Donald Trump really?” and “The Long Road to the White House”; two reports from Thomas Spang).

 

The Iowa caucus results

(Extrapolation after counting 95% of the votes cast)                                                          

                                                     Forecasts January 2024 Result January 15.1.2024, XNUMX

 

Donald J. Trump                                    48% 51,0%

Ron De Santis                                           16% 21,2%

Nikki Haley                                               20% 19,1%

Vivek Ramaswamy                                   8% 7,7%

(Forecast figures CNN)

(Various other applicants are not mentioned here)

 

Iowa did not confirm all predictions

It is obvious and was already predictable in the forecasts: Iowa is Trump country. He won 98 of the 99 counties; a county went up Nikki Haley. The New York Times wrote from one “Runaway Victory”; he simply galloped away from everyone else. In fact it has Trump – different from his opponents DeSantis and Haley – exceeded all forecasts and expectations and climbed above the 50 percent mark. 

Ron De Santis Although he defended second place, the gap was increasing Nikki Haley is not very clear. A few days earlier, things had looked even worse for him when he had even fallen to third place in a poll. The evangelical voter groups “saved” him second place because they have particular weight in the Iowa caucuses. According to surveys before the votes, 51 percent of these groups were in favor Trump, 22 percent for DeSantis and only 12 percent for Haley. The weather had a significant influence on visitor frequency and thus also on the result. Bitter cold and snowstorms resulted in 2024 seeing the lowest turnout since 2000. 

(Sources: nytimes.com, January 13.1.2024, XNUMX: “Trump Far Ahead, With Haley Edging DeSantis for Second, Key Iowa Poll Finds”; nytimes.com, January 15/16.1.2024, 2000: “This Year’s Iowa Caucus Is On Track For Lowest Turnout Since XNUMX”).

Based on these forecast figures, it was not surprising that Nikki Haleys The election campaign was followed particularly closely by democratic and independent voters. The New York Times reported in detail about how previously “Democratic” or “Independent” registered voters could be changed to vote for the Republican caucuses participate and for Nikki Haley to be able to vote. This revealed one of the peculiarities of the American electoral system and the primaries. This “rebooking” is not happening on an overwhelming scale, but it was an option in Iowa in 2024 after the Democrats did not vote there on January 15.1.2024, XNUMX Caucus meetings carried out. Some looked in Nikki Haley a “sensible Republican” who can move the country away from bitter partisanship and return the national discourse to civilized lines. Some were attracted by her call to unite the country and resolve difficult issues, such as the abortion issue, across party lines. Others were simply driven by fear Trump could Biden defeat and move back into the White House. 

Cited as an example New York Times an Mr. Brown from Clinton, Iowa: "I received my Republican caucus ticket and now I have to go to my father's grave to apologize." The father of Mr. Brown was a loyal democrat and war veteran who always voted strictly according to party affiliation. However, the NYT report notes that the Republicans Caucus meetings on January 15.1.2024, XNUMX were ultimately only attended by a few non-Republicans. What's interesting is how Nikki Haley is judged by opponents from within their own ranks. DeSantis called them “liberals” – a real insult for Republicans in America. Others accuse her of not announcing the conservative agenda enough (nytimes.com, January 13.1.2024, XNUMX: “In Iowa, Nikki Haley Has the Attention of Democrats and Independents”).

 

Iowa can be summarized as follows:

• Trump won hands down; a sign of how tight his grip is on the Republican electorate.
• The two opponents Nikki Haley and Ron De Santis have been arguing for weeks, but they are barely apart after the caucuses in Iowa.
• The prospects for DeSantis are, however, gloomy. He has no chance of winning in any of the next primaries Haley to discontinue. His forecast numbers are even weaker in the upcoming states.
• The primary elections already cost large sums of money. In Iowa, Republican candidates spent more than $123 million on campaign advertising.
• Despite the clear victory of Trump The result from Iowa does not allow any clear conclusions to be drawn, neither about the Republican candidacy nor about the election results of November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX. The Iowa caucuses do not reflect what is happening across the country. In addition, on January 15.1.2024, 15, only around 720 percent of the almost 000 Republican registered voters voted there. Even in normal years, the winners of Iowa rarely became the Republican candidates. Since 1980, the Iowa winners in contested races have also ended up becoming the Republican candidates. Just one of them – George W. Bush - became American president in 2000.

(Sources:  nytimes.com, January 16.1.2024, XNUMX: “Trump’s Big Win in Iowa”; nytimes.com, January 16.1.2024, 5: “XNUMX Takeaways From Trump’s Runaway Victory in the Iowa Caucuses”).

In New Hampshire the cards between the two will be reshuffled on January 23.1.2024rd, XNUMX. Nikki Haley is within striking distance of Donald Trump, not least because many Christie supporters be defected to her. Here will Haley a real danger for Trump (nytimes.com, January 11.1.2024, XNUMX: “With Chris Christie Out, Nikki Haley Is Poised to Benefit in New Hampshire”).

Above all, it was barely registered Vivek Ramswamy gave up the race after finishing 4th in Iowa. Although him Trump two more days before the Caucus meetings called a fraudster Ramaswamy on January 15.1.2024, XNUMX an election recommendation for Trump away (nytimes.com, January 15/16.1.2024, XNUMX: “Vivek Ramaswamy, Wealthy Political Novice Who Aligned With Trump, Quits Campaign”).

And another little thing on the outskirts of Iowa should be mentioned, which in retrospect could possibly become an early warning of disaster. As in previous elections Trump also before the Iowa caucuses indicated that if his expectations were not met, he would not accept the result. He accused Ron De Santis, he wanted to manipulate the election, and in fact it had DeSantis campaign There was an incident that had no further consequences: Casey desantis, the governor's wife, had the supporters of in December 2023 Ron De Santis asked to come to Iowa from outside and to the Caucus meetings to participate. Iowa Republicans immediately objected to the request because only Iowa residents are allowed to attend the meetings. But Donald Trump had - as in 2020 - found a straw with which he could possibly identify alleged election fraud. 

The New York Times In her report, she referred to high expectations in Iowa and also to his previous practices of accepting or not accepting election results: "What would he do if he didn't like the results (in Iowa)?" (nytimes.com, January 14.1.2024, XNUMX: “Trump Has Made Claims About Caucus Fraud. “What if He Underperforms?”). Was this heralding a new election denial affair? The last one led to the storming of the Capitol in Washington on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX and has since brought him a number of criminal proceedings.

 

On the importance of New Hampshire – A look back

Located in Iowa Ron De Santis second far behind Trump and only just ahead Nikki Haley. The race between the two will be decided in New Hampshire. That DeSantis in Iowa only just ahead Haley lies shows that his campaign is still weak. "If she wins New Hampshire or comes in a very close second, it would cause a seismic shock in the Republican Party," he said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategy expert. However, a comment was heard from a microphone that had not yet been switched off Chris Christie captured: “She’s not ready for that yet”.  Christie after his withdrawal neither had any support Haley still for DeSantis made an election recommendation. He blames the former UN ambassador for two weaknesses in particular: that when asked, she did not name slavery as the reason for the American Civil War (1861-1865) and that she - like all other Republican candidates - stated that Trump to vote, he should become the candidate, even if he is convicted in the ongoing criminal proceedings. Is criticized Haley also for not ruling out Trumps To become “Running Mate” for the Vice Presidency position. 

But what will happen? Ron De Santis, should him Nikki Haley beat in New Hampshire? Matt Moore, a former chairman of the Republican Party in South Carolina, where Haley was formerly governor and where the primary elections will take place on February 24.2.2024th, XNUMX predicted that DeSantis then will no longer be there. South Caroline is in the polls so far Trump in front (nytimes.com, January 11.1.2024, XNUMX: “With Chris Christie Out, Nikki Haley Is Poised to Benefit in New Hampshire”).

 

Breaking News:  DeSantis throw down!

When I reached this point in drafting the paper, the Tagesthemen reported on Saturday, January 21.1.2024, XNUMX: Ron De Santis gives up the race and recommends to his supporters, Donald Trump to choose. 

The Republican race on January 23.1.2024, XNUMX in New Hampshire was now actually Nikki Haley ./. Donald Trump.

I originally intended to refer to the 5th Republican debate on January 10.1.2024, XNUMX here again Nikki Haley and Ron De Santis enter into. This has now been resolved. From the end of the DeSantis campaign reported the New York Times how the applicant who had now become an “ex” also acted imprecisely. DeSantis quoted a sentence on “X” that was supposedly from Winston Churchill should come from: “Success is not the end, defeat is not doom: what is crucial is the courage to continue where it counts.”

The New York Times has this quote at the International Churchill Society asked and was told that the sentence was incorrect Churchill attributed. The sentence cannot be found in the collection of its basic principles (nytimes.com, January 21.1.2024, XNUMX: “Ron DeSantis appears to misattribute a quote to Winston Churchill as he drops out of the primary”). 

Christian Zaschke comments on the exit of DeSantis in the Süddeutsche Zeitung as follows: “A superlative can Ron De Santis To his credit: He led the worst Republican presidential campaign in US history. At the beginning of 2023 it looked as if nothing could stop the governor of Florida. Republican donors flooded his bid with dollars. The polls said he alone could Donald Trump as the Republican candidate. A year later has  DeSantis burned around $130 million and dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination. As an almost ridiculous figure.”…

“The governor knew his shortcomings and he tried to make up for them through aggressiveness. He attacked the large corporation Disney because it's supposed to be too Woke had become. He attacked the libraries in Florida for the same reason. A campaign whose main enemies, to put it simply, Mickey Mouse and books are – who in the world on their team thought that up?” (sueddeutsche.de, January 22.1.2024, XNUMX: “A Campaign Against Books and Mickey Mouse”).

The report of the Süddeutsche about the retreat is headlined “He’s back in line.” He (DeSantis) be with me Donald Trump don't agree on everything, but Trump six Joe Biden think about it, that's clear. He supports Trump, “because we cannot return to the old republican guard of yesterday, or to a repackaged form of rehashed corporatism Nikki Haley represents.” That’s why I want to DeSantis nun Trump support. In the report of the SZ there is talk of a role backwards. spoke at his departure DeSantis neither of Trumps Attempt to “get” votes in Georgia in 2020 still from the role in the storming of the Capitol on January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX. Instead says DeSantis: “Reversing the decline of this nation will require leadership that delivers big results for the people we are elected to serve.” DeSantis is the opposite of the trained entertainer Trump been, says the Süddeutsche Zeitung firmly (sueddeutsche.de, January 22.1.2024, XNUMX: “He’s back on track”). 

For Donald Trump was the exit of DeSantis good news. In his exit video he said: “Trump is the current incumbent Joe Biden superior. That is clear. I promised in writing to support the Republican candidate and I will keep that promise. I recommend voting for him because we cannot return to the old guard of Republicans of earlier years.” nytimes.com, October 21.1.2024, XNUMX: “DeSantis endorsed Trump as he dropped out: “We can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesterday”).

Trump has joined DeSantis Thank you very much for the recommendation. His campaign said: “We are honored by the endorsement.” Yes Trump would not be Trump, he wouldn't have sent another bump to the opponent who had resigned. Trump has in the past DeSantis again and again with the nickname Ron DeSanctimonious evidenced, just as he expressed his disrespect to many other opponents. When asked what the nickname is for DeSantis was, explained Trump: “That name was officially retired” (nytimes.com, January 21.1.2024, XNUMX: “'DeSanctimonious' No More: Trump says He'll Drop Ex-Rival's Nickname.”).

Got it for that Nikki Haley Lately, he's been delivering whole broadsides. She had a long-term focus on her campaign Donald Trump aligned. But how will the withdrawal of DeSantis – just two days before the vote in New Hampshire, where they are within striking distance in the forecasts Trump came? An earlier one Trump voter, which now Haley supported, put it this way: “I wish he (DeSantis) would have waited... I'm nervous but really hopeful" (nytimes.com, January 22.1.2024, XNUMX: “Haley Gets a Trump Matchup, but Now Faces the Trump Machine”).

After the Iowa caucuses, the climate between Trump and Haley rougher. Trump had the names of at a campaign appearance Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi, of the former Democratic group leader in the House of Representatives. Haley then publicly asked whether Trump was fit enough to rule the country. She talked about her aging parents: “… when you see them, after they have reached a certain age, there is a decline. That's a fact, ask any doctor, there is a decline.” The term “mentally unfit” was in the room. Haley trailer However, they fear their attacks Trump would come too late. (nytimes.com, January 20.1.2024, XNUMX: "Haley Hits Trump on Age, Suggesting He Is 'in Decline'"). 

But maybe there is something to it Haley's Assumptions. The reported on January 30.1.2024, XNUMX Berlin morning post, The Republican ex-president has been noticed lately because of his interruptions in his speeches. “Now doubts are growing about his mental fitness.” The newspaper quotes the former spokespersons on this Trump, Stephanie Grisham and Alyssa Farah Griffin pointing out that Trump had visibly aged after his presidency ended in 2021.  Grisham said in a television program at the weekend (January 27/28.1.2024, XNUMX), “without a doubt he has lost weight... Something is wrong with him. He seems like a man who is mentally deteriorating.” These are serious statements, but there is apparently no reliable material on them. In the report of the Berliner Morgenpost it says: “Objective data about Trump are not publicly available.” In other words, assumptions on which no future forecasts can be based. However, has Joe Biden already indicated earlier, if Trump is not the Republican candidate, he will consider whether to continue. About an actual plan B Bidens and I don't know anything about the Democrats.     

According to the guesses Haley's lap Trump back in familiar fashion: racist and below the belt. He posted on social media, Haley — the daughter of Indian immigrants — is not a true American and does not meet the presidential requirements of being born in the United States. He already had the same hints Barack Obama made and, also as in Obama, he corrupted her birth name – Nimarata Nikki Randhawa – and named her Nimbra and Nimrada. This type of racism comes through again and again with Trump. So he didn’t just “operate” on Obama but also with the Vice President Kamala Harris and even with the senator from his own party Ted Cruz from Texas, the first senator to come from a Latino family. (nytimes.com, January 20.1.2024, XNUMX: “Mocking Haley, Trump Adds to His Long History of Racist Attacks”).

So now, January 23.1.2024rd, XNUMX: The primary elections in New Hampshire. Haley must win or only narrowly lose, otherwise the race for the Republican nomination would have been as good as over for them - according to the predictions.

Published on 21/22.1.24/XNUMX/XNUMX CNN The following forecast numbers for the New Hampshire primaries of both parties:  

 

                The Republican primary

 

                          Trump 54%

                          Haley 41%

                          Other 3%

 

                The Democratic primary

 

                       Biden 63%

                       Phillips 10%

                       Williamson 9%

 

Biden is not on the official ballot. His name must therefore be entered by hand by the voters. After leaving Ron De Santis the chances increased Donald Trumps, on January 23.1.2024, XNUMX in New Hampshire. Nikki Haley On the other hand, hoped for support from the group of Independents, who, unlike Iowa, are allowed to vote in New Hampshire. The tension was palpable: “Nikki Haley hopes for a miracle in New Hampshire,” wrote Thomas Spang in the Heilbronner Voice (Heilbronner Voice, January 23.1.2024, XNUMX: “DeSantis gets out and submits to Trump”).

“Last Chance New Hampshire” was the headline Süddeutsche Zeitung their preliminary report (sueddeutsche.de, January 23.1.2024, XNUMX: “Last Chance New Hampshire”).

The New Hampshire Republican primary results

(95% of votes counted)

 

                                          CNN forecast January 21/22.1.2024, 23.1.2024 Result January XNUMX, XNUMX

 

            Donald J. Trump               54% 54,4%

            Nikki Haley                          41% 43,3%

            other 3% ---

 

The result is likely Haley's did not fully meet expectations. She didn't let this show during her radiant appearance in front of the cameras. She declared the race against Trump not to give up: "New Hampshire was the first round, it's not last in the country," she explained: "This race is far from over," noting that a Trump candidacy in the end the presidency of Biden/Harris would mean. She was referring to the Democrats' silent expectation that... Trump will be the Republican candidate Biden has already beaten once and, above all, could now beat more easily than a female candidate Niki Haley. In a constellation Biden (81) ./. Haley (52) would the age problem – to the detriment of Biden – come into full effect. Maybe this would be for Biden the casus belli for the implied exit - and the USA would then possibly have two women running for the presidency for the first time in its history.

In the primary in Nevada on February 8.2.2024th, XNUMX Haley will not run, but has announced a $24.2.2024 million ad campaign for her home state of South Carolina on February 4, XNUMX. Donald Trump responded in his victory rally with the usual poisonous statements. He had hoped to conclude the Republican primaries with victory in New Hampshire and Nikki Haley to bring to task. But this had not happened. That's why he took action Haley because, in his opinion, she had made an overly confident admission of defeat: “She didn’t win. She lost,” he said, calling the former UN ambassador an impostor (nytimes.com, January 23.1.2024, XNUMX: “Trump’s Win Adds to Air of Inevitability as Haley Sharpen’s Edge”).

 

Biden wins the NH Democratic primary

The president did not run an election campaign in the true sense of the word before the primary in New Hampshire; his name wasn't even on the official ballot. There were already disputes between the two months ago Democratic National Committee and the state of New Hampshire, which is responsible for the primaries. The Democrats didn't want to enter South Carolina until February 24.2.2024, XNUMX, but New Hampshire insisted that - as always - New Hampshire was the first state with "real" primaries and not just, like Iowa, with caucuses. Therefore, only the two better-known ones were on the ballot for the Democrats Biden opponents, the congressman Dean Phillips from Minnesota and the former pastor and now successful author Marianne Williamson from California and 20 other names of all possible candidates for the count. The latter sometimes only achieved results in the single-digit range. Some and some of them will proudly keep the ballot paper so that I can show it to their grandchildren one day. 

The Biden supporters in New Hampshire called for the president's name to be used as a so-called Write-in candidate on the ballot paper and this happened thousands of times on election day in New Hampshire (sueddeutsche.de, January 24.1.2024, XNUMX: “Biden symbolically wins from a distance”).

 

The Democrats' New Hampshire primary results

 

                                                CNN forecast January 21/22.1.2024, 23.1.2024 Result January XNUMX, XNUMX      

 

                    Biden 63% 64,0%

                    Phillips 10% 19,6%

                    Williamson 9% 4,0%

 

(Source: upr.org, January 23.1.2024, XNUMX: “Biden wins the New Hampshire primary after Democrats write him on the ballot”).

 

A few insights from the New Hampshire primary

The blue dress from Nikki Haley

After the result was announced - Nikki Haley had done well, but Trump was the winner – kicked Haley in front of the cameras in a blue floral jacquard dress and Trump was tempted to make a derogatory comment about it. He spoke of the “fantastic dress that wasn’t so fantastic after all.” The New York Times noted that this reaction from Haley was probably planned exactly that way and identified the dress as one of the Teri Jon brand that was sold in department stores like Saks It's available for $580 - so "expensive but not too expensive." With self-confident American women Trump Certainly no points with his comment. Haley left with her dress Trump last but not least, know: she carries on confidently (nytimes.com, January 24.1.2024, XNUMX: “Haley's Fancy-but-Not-So-Fancy Dress May Have Been Just What She Intended”)

 

Trump's weakness among critical independent voters and: It's about the money

“Despite all the euphoria in the bubble of the Republican primaries,” writes the New York Times is Trumps Campaign is faced with ongoing weakness that makes his nomination a significant risk for his party." We're talking about the group of voters - independents, college graduates and Republicans - who will vote in large numbers in New Hampshire on January 23.1.2024, XNUMX Scope for Nikki Haley agreed. However, there were not enough to surpass those who Trump want to return to power. However, this shows the difficulties Trumps when he has to leave the MAGA world and face the broader electorate.

Im NYT report Remarkable results from the voter follow-up survey are mentioned: 4 out of 10 Haley voters said that not Haley's political agenda but the aversion to it Trump was crucial for their decision. More than 90 percent of this group said they would be dissatisfied Trump be nominated again. 

The current discussion also shows Joe Biden Weak points. Currently in the USA, age is particularly important Biden’s – 81 years – of course Trump at 77, only 4 years younger. Biden and Harris However, they entered the election campaign with a completely different focus - the issue of abortion and women's right to make their own decisions. The Biden campaign wants loudly NYT spend $1 million on advertising in Q2024 300. Trumps Super PAC MAGA Inc. will not reach this amount until July 2024 and has therefore sent an urgent appeal for donations to supporters.

Last but not least, advertising competition is about staying focused on your own topics. At Biden/Harris One of the focal points is women's right to self-determination but also ensuring democracy and the rule of law. The Trump team wants to focus voters primarily on the topics of the economy, national security, migration and crime. “However, focusing on specific topics is not the strength Trumps. In his victory speech on Tuesday (23.120.24/2020/XNUMX), he repeated the lies about losing the XNUMX election and added a new one about winning New Hampshire then (Mr Biden won)." These digressions show: "Trump is still busy with the past elections. On his role in the storming of the Capitol on January 6.1.2021, 91 and on the XNUMX articles of impeachment; most concern his attempt to stay in power. All of this weakens his prospects, not only among already doubtful independents and swing voters.” (nytimes.com, January 24.1.2024, XNUMX: “New Hampshire and Iowa Reveal Broader Weaknesses for Trump”).

Not least because of this weakness Trump effect Nikki Haley the question of electability was raised. In a promotional video, she asked the question: “Don’t you want someone who can win?” Haley wins, Trump loses" (nytimes.com, January 19.1.2024, XNUMX: “Can 'Electability' Save Nikki Haley? ”).

 

Sniping a little at the democratic process

Nachdem Trump won in New Hampshire on January 23.1.2024, XNUMX David Bossie, a close confidant of the former president and member of the Republican National Committee (RNC) in a television interview that he wanted to appear at the next meeting of the RNC introduce a draft resolution with the aim of Donald Trump to declare him the “presumptive nominee” of the Republicans. The adoption of this resolution would not have had any impact on the other primaries, as these are organized by the individual states. In the end, these would have additional primaries for them GOP candidates but no longer has any meaning. As a result, there was an internal party discussion about this and in particular Nikki Haley and their supporters criticized this intention. Parallel to this discussion, pressure grew Haley, to end their campaign, which would lead to the same result as the announced resolution: Trump would be the only remaining candidate for the Republican nomination. The New York Times reported on all of this that the Trump campaign I will do everything in my power to end the primary phase as soon as possible in order to save money for the upcoming main election campaign. Were mentioned in the NYT in this context too Trumps rapidly increasing legal fees. But finally someone spoke up Trump on his platform Social Truth spoke out and, in the interest of party unity, advocated not pursuing the planned resolution any further and continuing in the “old way”. David Bossie then withdrew the draft resolution. (nytimes.com, January 25.1.2024, XNUMX: “Trump Ally Withdraws Plan for a GOP Resolution to Move Past Haley”).

 

Republicans in Congress are closing ranks behind Trump

How should or must a Republican senator or member of the House of Representatives comply? Trumps Wins in Iowa and New Hampshire are cautious, especially those so far Trump had distanced themselves? As the overwhelming favorite of the Republican base with the chance to become president again, he also has the power to decide the political future of senators or congressmen. A very interesting report from New York Times provides information about how quickly the last ones are changing Trump critics in the Senate and House of Representatives Trump gathered or had to fit in without any ifs and buts.

The NYT gives examples:

Senator John Thune from South Dakota, who has been an outspoken critic Trumps gave up resistance with well-chosen words: “Trump is in a crucial position and I have always said “that I will support the candidate. If he is the nominee, I will do what I can to help the team win the presidency.”

Senator said bluntly John Barrasso from Wyoming, who is quietly seeking to win the Republican leadership position in the Senate: “We need Donald Trump back in the White House.”

The congresswoman had to do a difficult egg dance Nancy Mace perform from South Carolina. She had one of 2022 Trump supported candidates – not least with Nikki Haleys Help thrown out of the running. After January 6.1.2021, XNUMX, she declared that all benefits were over Trumps had been “wiped out” and was therefore of Trump been called a “grandstanding loser”. In order to save their political future Mace Already in April 2023, in response to a corresponding question, declared: “I will support the candidate – that is my answer.” The day before New Hampshire declared Nancy Mace, she supports “Trump for President” and on January 23.1.2024, XNUMX she appeared in the Trump headquarters in Charleston, South Carolina to celebrate “New Hampshire’s historic victory.”

The Senator SuzanneCollins from Maine is among the few who stood firm. She stated she would Trump never support and demanded Nikki Haley to stay in the race. 

Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate Minority Leader – Trump He regularly nicknames him "Old Crow" - simply told reporters before the New Hampshire primary that New Hampshire was being watched with great interest. McConnell was part of the small group of leading Republicans and Democrats in the Senate who spent weeks negotiating the compromise on the unfortunate issues of continued support for Ukraine (the Democrats' demand) and tougher immigration policies (the Republicans' demand). Complained on January 25.1.2024, XNUMX McConnell the growing influence in private circles Trump, which made the efforts to reach a compromise more difficult. The Republicans are in a quandary. McConnell himself considered the immigration deal to be less important than military aid to Ukraine. He stated on January 25.1.2024, XNUMX that he would continue to work on the “Border Security/Ukraine” package, but that a result was less likely than last year, before the victory Trumps in the primaries. (In reality, it's not just Republicans who are in a bind; US global credibility is at stake).

The key questions in Congress - migration and border security in the south on the one hand and continued support for Ukraine on the other - have now been tied together by the Republicans into such a solid package that they can only be solved together. Who grew stronger again Donald Trump also added fuel to the fire: Hey, save the problem. Doesn't solve it. Let me reap the rewards for solving the problem later,” he says in the Süddeutsche Zeitung quoted. For Trump It's not about foreign policy or geo-strategic questions, for him it's about getting back into the White House and he's putting everything on one card. Leave my likely opponent Joe Biden and the Democrats won't pull a punch - no matter what the consequences may be. Compromises have often been an integral part of American politics, but anyone who currently seeks a compromise with the Democrats has become suspicious among the Republicans. The fact that ammunition is currently running low in Ukraine is becoming increasingly apparent Trump apparently in purchase. A climax in this dispute - not only between the two parties but now also between parts of the Republicans in the Senate and the "friends" in the House of Representatives - was reached on January 27.1.2024th, XNUMX Mike Johnson, of Speakers of the House stated that if the rumors of a compromise bill in the Senate were true, it would be "dead" upon arrival in the House. As Speakers of the House decides Johnson, what comes to the floor of the House of Representatives. At the end of January 2024 he did not yet know the details of the Senate compromise; he spoke of “rumors”.  Johnson is not a foreign policy expert, but an absolute one Trump supporters.

What all this means describes Viet Shelton, the spokesperson of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee like this: “Donald Trump announced it when he said that Republicans across the country would all "fall on their knees" and pledge allegiance to him - no matter how toxic he is. Now we are seeing in real time how party leadership across the country is forcing candidates to fall into line.”

On Friday, January 26.1.2024, XNUMX, President took action Biden into the dispute in order to save the bipartisan compromise solution from the Senate, which was as a result of the Trumpian Vetoes were declared “dead” in the House of Representatives. Biden wrote to Senate negotiators pledging to immediately stop immigration across the Mexican border if Congress provides him with the basis to do so. “What was negotiated – should it become law – resulted in the strictest and fairest reform steps (in migration policy) that we have ever had in our country. This gives me, as President, the opportunity to close the border if it is overrun. And if I get that legal basis, I will use it the day I signed the law.”

According to the compromise negotiated Biden in fact no other choice. The compromise obliges the federal administration, among other things, to close the border to unauthorized immigrants if more than 5 people try to cross the border without permission per day. This threshold has been constantly exceeded in recent months. (Sources: nytimes.com, January 24.1.2024, XNUMX: “After Early Primary Victories, Republicans in Congress Fall in Line Behind Trump”; nytimes.com, January 25.1.2024, XNUMX: “Trump Strengthens Grip on Capitol Hill as He Presses Toward Nomination”; nytimes.com, January 26.1.2024, XNUMX: “Biden Vows Border Shutdown, Pressing Congress to Pass Immigration Deal”; sueddeutsche.de, January 26.1.2024, XNUMX: “The borderline case of the Republicans”).

Trumps The blockade stance that he has given the Republicans in the House of Representatives as the direction of travel suggests that he wants to keep the Lang on the border with Mexico chaotic in order to benefit from this in the election campaign. He and his supporters in Congress apparently care little that Ukraine is in danger of being overrun by the Russians because the US is no longer providing aid. 

Agreeing to the president's commitment to close the border with Mexico under certain circumstances may not be easy for some Democrats in the House of Representatives. On the other hand, some Republicans, for whatever reason, will find it difficult to agree to further support for Ukraine. The solution that has now been found across party lines in the Senate is - or would be - the classic way to get the cow off the ice with a compromise. But Donald Trump and his people don't want this. Mike Johnson, of speakers of the house who has the power not to vote on the compromise in the House of Representatives places great responsibility on his shoulders in view of the possible fate of Ukraine. Already now – long before a possible election Trumps on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX - it becomes clear what it could mean if he and his MAGA people move back into the White House. Your first victim could be Ukraine, because of the announcement Trump, Ending the war in Ukraine within a day only allows for two possible bad interpretations: it is either naive or extremely dangerous for everyone involved, especially for Ukraine. 

The further fate of the bill from the Senate is uncertain: from February 17.2th. - February 28.2.2024, 218, the House of Representatives was on winter vacation. The Democrats then wanted to force a vote on aid to Ukraine using a rarely used procedure. This requires 1.3.2024 signatures on a corresponding petition. The Democrats in the House of Representatives do not reach this quorum, so they need supporters from the Republican faction. A Vabanque game, collecting signatures can only begin after the holidays, from March XNUMXst, XNUMX  (sueddeutsche.de, February 24.2.2024, XNUMX: “US Democrats want to force vote on Ukraine aid”). So far without result.

 

The election campaign is getting uglier

Meanwhile, not only takes Donald Trump his opponent Nikki Haley to the point, his supporters are also flooding the internet with material from the bottom drawers. The New York Times reports on posts in which Haley as a shiva, the Indian goddess of destruction is depicted. Her descent from an Indian immigrant family is alluded to in an ugly way. Other internet trolls are using fake programs that show her supposedly arguing with voters, and still others are using venom against her son, a young college student. 

originally were Trumps Trolls up Ron De Santis scheduled and hardly noticed Haley: “After that, however Ms Haley is the last opponent, the machine has turned in her direction.” The posts are loaded with racist and sexist content. Haley is vilified because she once said she was mocked because she was “brown.” And there are always false claims that she can't be president because her parents are immigrants. The most worrying thing is that New York Times is obscene material created using artificial intelligence that manipulates her voice and demeanor. This is no longer about political criticism but about portraying the opponent as someone with loose morals. “Some posts were made by a team that is ““Trump’s Online War Machine” calls" (nytimes.com, February 22.2.2024, XNUMX: Pro-Trump Internet Trolls Escalate Ugly Attacks on Nikki Haley").

(I wonder who promotes or even financially supports such online trolls. And what if - according to the experience that when "something new" is invented in the USA, it also comes to Europe after a short time - this kind of thing Election campaign is also being held here?).

 

Hat Nikki Haley another chance?

After defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire Nikki Haley announced that their campaign was far from over. Her next destination is her home state of South Carolina, where she was governor from 2011 to 2017. But what sense does this make? Has Haley one more chance against Donald Trump to win the race for the Republican nomination? On the rise and fall of Haley There are two narratives in this race: one completely pessimistic and one not quite so pessimistic. But at the end of both stories there is the same result. Various commentators on the New York Times examined Haley's situation in the coming weeks and this is her conclusion: sooner or later she will be “out.” 

Frank Bruni writes: “Nikki Haley was an illusion. It was just smashed.” Charles M Blow put it a little more softly: “Haley can Trump "I can't hit him, but she can stab him." It seems to be similar now Trump. Frank Bruni concludes from various statements Trump, that he made before the decision in New Hampshire that he had initially become nervous: “His rambling statements became even more eccentric.” After he Haley with Nancy Pelosi had mixed up, poisoned Haley back, she had long called for competency tests for politicians over 75. But in the victory speech on January 23.1.2024, XNUMX Trump the old man again and poured over Haley and her blue dress with scorn and ridicule.

Like those who have since left Trump opponents has also Nikki Haley (so far) no effective recipe has been found like this Donald Trump should handle. “Trump will not simply disappear, it must be defeated,” writes Charles M Blow. "But Haley “cannot defeat him because she has not found an answer to a central problem: she needs the support of a group of voters who are religiously loyal to him.” She has hardly addressed his court problems in her election campaign so far. She is still walking a narrow and treacherous line: she has to find an approach that will succeed Trumps To break up the capture of almost the entire Republican voter pool without ultimately having these voters totally against you. She has her jabs on Trump strengthened and their donors are apparently satisfied and continue to support them. Perhaps to give herself courage again, she described to her fans at an election rally in Mauldin, South Carolina on January 27.1.2024, XNUMX: Trumps Nervous about their rising forecast numbers in New Hampshire with dramatic words: “He was totally out of balance – yes, out of balance. He was a little touchy and I think he even felt hurt, and then he staged a tantrum in the open.”

But the further needle pricks Haley's should Trump not doing much harm. She repeatedly mentioned the older age of the prospective opponents --  Biden (81) and Trump (77) – and this leads to cognitive deficits in both. And it works too Trumps tirades against them, noting that a distracted president is exactly what opponents abroad are waiting for.

Good attacking opportunities for Niki Haley the two would have convictions Trumps in matters Jean Caroll can offer, but Haley she hardly used it. Trump was already in the spring of 2023 by a jury in New York for sexual harassment of the author Jean Caroll was ordered to pay $5 million in compensation. After this verdict was Trump with social media posts against Caroll took the field badly and was successful with a defamation lawsuit Trump was ordered to pay $26.1.2024 million in damages on January 83,3, XNUMX. Against both judgments have Trumps Lawyers appealed. But, as mentioned: Nikki Haley did not make much use of these two templates for an attack on the moral weaknesses of the opponent. Not out of noble restraint, but because it is what exists Trump dilemma just didn't allow it. “I trust the jury and think they made their decision based on the evidence,” said Haley. (Sources: nytimes.com, October 24.1.2024, XNUMX: “Nikki Haley What an illusion. It Just Shattered.”; Guest post by Frank Bruni; nytimes.com, 24.1.2024: Charles M Blow: “Haley Can’t Beat Trump, but She Can Sting Him”; nytimes.com, January 28.1.2024, XNUMX: “Haley's Dilemma: How to Diminish Trump Without Alienating Republican Voters”; sueddeutsche.de, January 27.1.2024, 83: “Trump must pay $XNUMX million for defamation”).

Attacked on February 16.2.2024, XNUMX Haley the legal problems Trumps at an event in San Antonio, TX - but again quite “tame”.  Trump had previously complained that he spent more time in the courtroom than on the campaign trail. In addition Haley's Note: “But let me say what we do. We’re on an election campaign tour.” (nytimes.com, February 18.2.2024, XNUMX: “Haley Says She Is Going to Distance Against Trump. Here’s Her Plan”).

However, it wasn't until a few days before the South Carolina primary that they really became clear. On February 20.2.2024, XNUMX, in Greenville, SC, she announced that no matter what happens in South Carolina, she would go ahead and fight for the Republican nomination. “I’m not afraid of Trump’s revenge. I don't expect anything from him. My own political future doesn't matter... There's no reason for me to kiss the ring." The New York Times noted in their report that this was probably the most powerful speech since their campaign began a year ago. She described herself as David fighting Goliath, but she was not only fighting against someone “bigger” but also for a bigger cause. She accused her Republican party friends of now turning around publicly Trump to rally and fear him in private. They were afraid to talk about it, even though they knew he was “a catastrophe” for the party. America deserves an alternative and “not a Soviet-style election where there is only one candidate and who then gets 99 percent of the vote.” And finally, the direct attack on Trump: “We don’t crown kings in this country. We have elections. And especially Donald Trump should know that we are not rigging the elections” (nytimes.com, February 20.2.2024, XNUMX: “Haley Says She Is Not Dropping Out: ‘I Feel No Need to Kiss the Ring”).

These clear words may have come too late just days before the South Carolina primary; Haley South Carolina also lost -- details on that later. Before the vote I wrote: “The battle is on February 24.2.2024, XNUMX Haley ./. Trump “The showdown is coming to South Carolina, and the prospects for that state’s former governor are not good.” She now urgently needs support from the upper levels of the party, but there is little of it, she wrote New York Times. henry mcmaster, her deputy, back when she was governor, has long been supportive Donald Trump. And the senator too Tim Scott - he was temporarily a candidate for the candidacy himself - and also the congresswoman Nancy Mace are closed Trump defected. Nancy Mace said after the storming of the Capitol on January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX, Trump must be held accountable for the riot. She's not the only one who doesn't remember it. “The good ol' boys have never liked her” - “The good ol' boys have never liked her”, described Nathan Ballantinee, a member of the state parliament and good friend Haley's the relationship of South Carolina's GOP leadership with the former governor. 

She also probably failed to maintain connections after her departure. “It was good for the economy but not particularly good at maintaining connections,” he said Chip Felkel, a longtime Republican political adviser and critic Trumps in the NYT quoted. “She forgot who helped her.” As the daughter of Indian immigrants, she resisted Haley the expectations of the old guard rooted in the “Deep South” and beat out some much better-known Republicans in their previous candidacies for the state parliament and the governorship. However, she won re-election as governor by a landslide. “A meteor-like rise,” says the New York Times. Haley's The campaign is now selling T-shirts with the print: “Underestimate Me, That’ll Be Fun.” 

“Nikki” was always the outsider candidate running against the political insiders,” said her campaign spokesman. When she first ran for a seat in state parliament, she failed in the primary Larry Koon, the then longest-serving member of Parliament in Columbia, SC out of the race. Koon and his supporters did back then Nimrata N. Randhawa” called and Trump has taken up this racist slander again. Larry Koon lost to them back then. Whether it's against Trump will work again is anything but certain.

In older forecasts led Trump with more than 30 points; in a pre-Iowa poll he was ahead by 29 points Haley, In the 2016 and 2020 elections Trump won hands down in South Carolina. He now has a whole list of names of Republican members of the state legislature and the administration who support him. The operated Trump campaign with a twofold message: 

• The former president could support their political careers if they support him;
• if they refuse, they cannot expect favor.

On May 24.1.2024th, XNUMX the Trump campaign a list with 158 names of supporters from various areas of the legislature and administration. For some on the list it is probably purely politics and not an aversion to it Ms Haley gone, said Josh Whitley, a county commissioner in the Charleston area and an ally of Nancy Mace, which is also a choice recommendation for Trump has given. Mace himself did not comment, but said: “South Carolina likes Nikki Haley, but loves it Donald Trump(nytimes.com, January 26.1.2024, XNUMX: “Why Nikki Haley Has So Few Friends Left in South Carolina Politics”). 

Donald Trump has opposed during the primaries Nikki Haley another serious argument in the quiver: Solange Haley remains in the race, his energy, his time and his financial resources are tied up in this primary election campaign and he cannot use all his strength against the expected opponent Joe Biden go into the field. This helps Haley – This is the possible argument - indirectly to the political opponent, Biden and the Democrats. It looks similar too Charles M Blow from the New York Times when he writes: “the longer she stays in the race, the more damage she does Trump.” No wonder, that Trump Haley attacks and shoots from all cylinders. He makes fun of her clothes, calls her "sparrow brain” and says she's almost like a "radical left-wing democrat." 

And above all this back and forth – this is the argument Charles M Blow - strip Haley The country may end up doing a service: “Reminding voters that Trump "An agent of chaos of the highest order, leading the nation through a dizzying series of trials, testing the strength of our institutions and our ability to withstand his anti-democratic attacks."  

At the primary in South Carlonia on February 24.2.2024th, XNUMX it stands or stood for Haley Everything is at stake at the end of January. Unless something extraordinary happens, she is out unless her major donors, such as the Koch brothers in New York, stay on board. If the donors drop out, Haley be out of the race sooner or later. 

 

South Carolina Republican Primary on February 24.2.2024, XNUMX

 

       The result:   Donald J. Trump                   59,8%

                                  Nikki Haley                               39,5%

                                 Ron De Santis                              0,4%

                                                        (95% of votes counted)

 

The New York Times reported the result under the heading: “Trump defeated Haley in their home state with a devastating blow.” The result was somewhat expected, but over Haley's There was a certain tension in the performance afterwards: “Our country will fall apart if we make the wrong decisions. It was never about my political future. We must Joe Biden in November.” And then the audience held its breath, writes the NYT. Her sad expression suggested for a moment that she would retire from the race. But then she declared that she would continue despite the sobering prospects. She wants to be the voice of Americans who are looking for an alternative to President Biden and the former president Trump search. Haley announced that it would travel on to Michigan, where the primary elections will take place on February 27.2.2024, XNUMX and then until Super Tuesday campaign all over the country. The primary elections will take place in 5.3.2024 states and one US territory on Tuesday, March 16, XNUMX. A third of the delegate votes at the Republican nomination convention are awarded, Haley's Courage is to be admired because she not only has to deal with the previous defeats but also the pressure Trump campaign and much of the Republican Party urging her to abandon her campaign. Trump had declared in his victory speech that he had never seen the Republican Party as united as it is now. There may be a lot of optimism in this statement, because November 5.11.2024, XNUMX is still a long way off and it is difficult to predict what will happen in the legal proceedings against him. David Kochel, a Trump opponents and long a strategist in the GOP predicted ambiguously: “The party will be finished with Trump, when Trump is done with the party.” (Sources: nytimes.com, February 24/25.2.2024, XNUMX: “South Carolina Primary: Trump defects Haley, “Delivering a Crushing Blow in Her Home State”; nytimes.com, October 24.2.2024, XNUMX: “Nikki Haley Forges Ahead Despite Another Loss: 'I Am a Woman of My Word'”;nytimes.com, February 25.2.2024, XNUMX: “After South Carolina, Trump's March to the Nomination Quickens”).  

 

Who Donald Trump South Carolina has turned around

In the chapter “Has Nikki Haley “One more chance?” I described what has happened since her time as governor in South Carolina and what she has failed to do or even done wrong there since then. A comprehensive report from the New York Times which describes how Donald Trump has conquered the traditionally republican state for itself. The NYT journalist Charles Homans reports from Aiken, South Carolina, about the now 85-year-old Claude O'Donovan and his wife Sunny. O'Donovan The local group had years ago Tea Party co-founded the radical “grassroots wing” of the Republican Party that cursed the establishment in Washington – including that of its own party – and the animosity of the right wing of the Republican Party GOP against the black president Barack Obama heated up.

Four years later, those who were originally skeptical flew Tea Party people - and also Nikki Haley - into the arms of the first-time competitor Donald Trump and his fully charged anti-immigrant agenda, fear of change in the country and fervent hatred of the establishment. As Nikki Haley When she first ran for governor in 2010, she had Claude O'Donovan invited home along with other guests to present to local conservative activists Aiken to introduce. “We fell in love with her. “She was a girl like dynamite,” says O'Donovan even today, but in the report of the New York Times is added that he and his wife will be in the primary on February 24.2.2024, XNUMX for Donald Trump will be true: “He embodies the values ​​of the Tea Party. She stood for the people and also for me, Trump stands for the people,” says Sunny O'Donovan (84). In the NYT report show the O'Donovan's a photo Trumps with his signature.

The MAGA movement from 2024 has the Tea Party adopted from 2010. Olivia Perez Cubas, today's spokesperson Haley Campaign describes the development of these years as follows: “Nikki is the conservatives' underdog candidate, just like she was when she ran for governor." South Carolina's conservatives opened their hearts to the daughter of Indian immigrants and as Sarah Palin, then governor of Alaska, an endorsement for Haley said, the race was over. Over the course of her term in office, the relationship between the Tea Party and the governor. She broke with the movement over a controversial tax provision and did not block the use of federal funds in connection with it Affordable Care Act (Obama Care).

Many supporters of the Tea Party represented the ideas of the old States Rights Movement (In the period before the Civil War that meant States Rights, that the individual states have equal status with the federal government and are entitled to overturn its decisions). These ideas still have an impact today in the view that the Civil War was not primarily fought over the slave issue. “You (the Tea Party supporters) gathered around the Confederate flag, and as Haley this flag after the racist “mass shooting” at a black church in Charleston In June 2015, the relationship came to an end. In addition, in South Carolina there were disappointed members of the tea party, who had hoped for a job in the state administration.

Trump saw in the earlier one Tea Party natural allies. At a conference of the Tea Party in January 2015 Myrtle Beach, SC he said: “I think we share the same values.” Claude O'Donovan didn't have 2016 for Trump voted. However, when he fulfilled his campaign promise and voted for conservative judges Supreme Court appointed, he changed course: “I became an 'All-Trumpers' (a 100% Trump supporter).

(Source: nytimes.com, February 23.2.2024, XNUMX: “How Did Haley's South Carolina Become Trump Country? Ask the Tea Party”; Report from Charles Homans).

  

Michigan Primaries on February 27.2.2024, XNUMX – Various open questions

The results (96 percent of votes counted):

              Democrats    Joe Biden                                81.1%

                                         Uncommitted 13,2%

                                         Marianne Williamson         2,9%

                                         Dean Phillips                           2,7%

 

              Republicans   Donald Trump                       68,1%

                                          Nikki Haley                            26.6%

             (Source: CNN)

 

At first glance, everything seems to have gone as expected for the two main opponents. Biden won hands down and Trump effect Haley defeated for the 6th time. But upon closer inspection, there are unanswered questions: 

• What about the 13.2% of Democrats who voted “Uncommitted”?   
• Why reached Trump only 68,1% of the vote, had he expected to win by 80%?
• When will Nikki Haley exit?

Michigan is one of the so-called swing states; States where both parties can win or lose. Defeated in 2016 Donald Trump Hillary Clinton with a lead of almost 11 votes. 000 brought Joe Biden Michigan with a 154 vote lead, the Democrat Gretchen Whitmer was re-elected governor and the Democrats won the majority in the legislature. There was trouble among the Republicans about the party leadership. The previous chairwoman Kristina Karamo, a tight one Trump supporter, was sent into the desert and it took a court decision on February 27.2.2024, XNUMX to confirm her removal. So fire under the roof of the Republicans.

But the Democrats are also on fire. One initiative called on primary voters to vote “uncommitted” in protest against the president’s Gaza policy biden It was primarily Arab-American Muslims, students and progressive Democrats who expressed their dissatisfaction. The question now is: What will happen in the Gaza war in the near future? And in particular: Will the current “uncommitted voters” be in the showdown between Biden and Trump come back in November? A very crucial question in the swing state of Michigan, where every vote will be important on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX. (Sources: nytimes.com, October 27.2.2024, XNUMX: “Trump defects Haley in Michigan, His Sixth Straight Victory”; nytimes.com, February 28.2.2024, XNUMX: Michigan Primary Takeaways: 'Uncommitted' Makes Itself Heard”; Heilbronn voice, February 29.2.2024, XNUMX: “Miss voters Biden and Trump Memoir”).

Nikki Haley explained – probably to the great chagrin of Donald Trump – that she wants to continue even after the defeat in Michigan, at least until Super Tuesday - Tuesday, March 5.3.2024, 16, on which around a third of the delegate votes for the electoral conventions of the two parties will be awarded in XNUMX states. What will Nikki Haley after this Super Tuesday do? Bret stephens, a columnist of New York Times mentions two opposing points that are likely to be important for your decision:

• She risks being in the GOP as a Liz Cheney type being labeled and even thrown out of the party;
• She is admired by Republicans who are not yet ready to let the party become a cult.

Another point of view that Stephens hasn't mentioned, should be added: How long will your money last to finance the primary election campaign? After the loss in their home state of South Carolina, this divides Koch Network Americans “Americans for Prosperity Action” with, the support for the Haley campaign  to hire; Given the challenges in the coming primary states, we do not believe that any outside group can provide a material path to victory.” (Sources: nytimes.com, 27.2.2024; Bret Stephens: “Nikki Haley's Last Ditch”; nytimes.com, February 25.2.2024, XNUMX: “Months After Backing Haley, Koch Network Suspends Support for Her Campaign”).

 

Super Tuesday – March 5.3.2024, XNUMX – No surprises

“About a third of the nation voted on Tuesday but there was little drama,” the wrote New York Time. “The one that cannot be stopped Mr. Trump Keep rolling.” The Republicans had 15 of the 16 Super Tuesday states partly solid majorities for Trump. Nikki Haley, the last remaining opponent could only conquer the relatively small Vermont. On March 4.3.2024th, 94 she won in Washington DC but so far only 4.3.2024 delegate votes (as of March XNUMXth, XNUMX)  fetched. Trump lay after that Super Tuesday with 1 delegate votes virtually unassailable. 066 delegate votes are required for nomination. As expected, she did Haley Campaign abandoned on March 6.3.2024, XNUMX.

Haley's Achievements seem poor at first glance, but upon closer inspection it has some weaknesses Trumps revealed. It is also important that she has no recommendation in favor of her voters when leaving Trumps delivered. “It’s up to now Donald Trump, “To win the votes of the voters in our party who did not support him and I hope he will do this.” She knows that Trump thus faces a difficult task, both in terms of his political agenda and his personal style. The Haley Supporter cannot be convinced by entertaining television appearances; they are more demanding.

In the primaries in 16 states on Super Tuesday reached Nikki Haley a total of 22% of the votes. Again, this doesn't sound like much; except in Vermont she was from Trump partly blown out of proportion. However, a closer look reveals a differentiated picture. Haley garnered significantly higher vote shares in counties with relatively wealthy and moderate populations with higher levels of education. In 9 counties with universities it achieved 56% of the vote, and in 5 counties in Washington DC it even achieved 61% of the vote. Even with the first one New York Times/Siena poll in July 2023, 25% of Republicans said they would Trump not support. A small part of this Non-Trump voters even explained, Trump in an election against Biden not to support. This can Trump in the states that he will win hands down, such as the Deep South. To the problem for Trump these can Never Trumper however in the Swing States .

 

Until March 5.3.2024, XNUMX, there were two of these Swing States the following results:

 

                  State                                  Trump Haley

                  Michigan    (24.2.2024)                    68,1% 26,6%

                  North Carolina  (5.3.2024)              73,9% 23,3%

 

In further Swing States – Wisconsin and Georgia – was voted on March 12.3.2024, XNUMX. But at that point it was Haley have already dropped out, so the numbers there no longer allow any clear conclusions.

The crucial question will be how the Trump-critical Republicans will behave on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX. Probably the larger part will be for Trump vote and some will not vote. But how many can Biden pull over to yourself? 

The notes on this New York Times: "Those who can be persuaded to turn away from him (Trump) could be the critical mass for Bidens Be re-elected.” Joe Biden has already reacted accordingly: “Donald Trump has made it clear that he is with Nikki Haley Supporters can't do anything. I want to be clear: there is room for them in my campaign.” (nytimes.com, December 5/7.3.2024, XNUMX: “Haley Cedes Republican Race to Trump, but Does Not Endorse Him”;  nytimes.com, March 7.3.2024, XNUMX: “Where Nikki Haley Won and What It Means”).

Wie die trump- critical Haley Supporter how we will deal with this invitation is difficult to predict. The NYT columnist David French effect Trumps Rejection to the Haley Supporter and Bidens Invitation accepted and further background explained. Trump had on his social media page Social Truth proclaims that everyone who attends Haley has made a “donation” in the long term MAGA movement is excluded. Biden acted more skillfully. He acknowledged differences of opinion Haley but advocated that the consensus views on democracy, decency, the rule of law and support for NATO Haley voters against Trump should unite. Would actually be a larger number Haley Conservative for Biden voices? French writes: “In normal times the answer would be 'no'”. However – and that works French assume that times are not normal - in the Trump GOP In the near future, traditional conservatives will have only one choice: “acquiesce or leave.”

David French mentions the security policy ideas Trumps: “Apart from the obvious disregard for democracy, his weakness in the Ukraine conflict and his hostility towards American allies may be the greatest danger of a second term in office, with serious historical consequences comparable to those of American isolationism before the Second World War.” French However, there are a number of domestic political issues that make it difficult for conservatives to change camp - this particularly includes the issue of abortion. There is also a candidate up for election GOP, who was impeached twice, who was criminally charged four times, who was found guilty of sexual harassment and then defamed his victim. A man who called for the storming of the Capitol and at least provided tactical support. How heavy will they be? Haley Republicans these points Donald Trump blame?    

Finally mentions French the foreign policy argument again: the Democrats are tougher on Russia. But the question will be whether the Conservatives will consider these points of view? (nytimes.com, 10.3.2024; David French: "Why Haley Voters Should Support Biden”).

An obituary Niki Haley I don't think it's appropriate to write. She didn't leave a pile of shards behind, like that Ron De Santis. She fought bravely against superior forces Trumps beaten and got out of the race confidently and decently, “without Trump to kiss the ring.” She is now 52 years old and has a new chance in 2028, although it is difficult to predict what will happen in and with the Republican Party by then. In the current election campaign, she experienced everyone's dilemma Trump opponents: How can you confront the controversial former president without messing things up with his fans from the start? Maybe she should have gone on the attack sooner. “Anti-Trumpers thought I didn't hate him enough - Pro-Trumpers "They said I didn't like him enough," she said, describing this dilemma (nytimes.com, 27.12.2023: “Nikki Haley’s Bold strategy to beat Trump:  Play It Safe”).   

Thomas Spang describes Nikki Haley in the Heilbronn voice as an “arch-conservative Republican.” What does that mean? In terms of domestic policy, she concentrated on traditional Republican priorities during the election campaign: austerity and debt reduction, national security and border security. The difference too Trump described them this way: “He went to Washington promising to spend less but he voted to lift the debt ceiling.” In her speeches, she carefully hinted again and again that she - a daughter of Indian immigrants - was the only woman in the Republican field of candidates. But for them, this was also the hardly solvable problem for American conservatives when it came to the question of abortion. She repeatedly advocated for a broad consensus, which earned her accusations from conservatives that she did not support new bans enough, while Democrats accused her of promoting extreme abortion bans. The Republicans are under pressure here from two sides and cannot escape this in the long term, since the often delicate medical questions can only be solved by the women concerned and their doctor. 

This is a complex problem for Republicans Trump to fight. He tries to be conservative Pro Life movement to score points by pointing out that the three conservative members of the Supreme Court made it possible to repeal the right to abortion. On the other hand, however, he throws Ron De Santis suggested that the law passed in Florida banning abortion from the sixth week of pregnancy was wrong. The abortion issue will play an important role in the election on November 5.11.24, XNUMX. 

When it comes to foreign policy, ideas differ Haley's from those of Trump MAGA supporters serious. She considers NATO and continued support for Ukraine to be an important part of American security policy. When the Republicans blocked the bill to support Ukraine in the House of Representatives in December 2023 and it suddenly seemed as if a decision had to be made between Ukraine or border security, they used cautious tactics and criticized both Biden as well as the Republicans: The wrong alternatives are being set. Ukraine suddenly became the Democrats' project, and border security became the Republicans' priority. Haley would have for one As well as could make a plea, as later happened in the Senate's bipartisan compromise, but it did not (yet) do so in December 2023. (Sources:  nytimes.com, October 27.12.2023, XNUMX: “Nikki Haley Bold strategy to beat Trump: Play It Safe”;  Heilbronn voice, March 5.3.2024, XNUMX: “Is Trump seriously ill?”).   

Only when this happened As well as that a small group in the Senate had been quietly working on since October 2023 Trump called on his loyalists in the House of Representatives to block the Senate compromise, expressed his opinion Haley on January 28.1.2024, XNUMX clearly and clearly: “Donald Trump, The last thing he should do is recommend that they wait until the election to deal with the border. We can't wait another day.” But the compromise, which was passed in the Senate with votes from Republican senators, is still in the drawer of the House of Representatives Speakers Mike Johnson, who has been trying for weeks to square the circle: to put aid for Ukraine, including border security, up for a vote without running into the knife of the extremists in his own faction. Johnson, who had voted against aid to Ukraine several times in the past, is now standing as Speaker in responsibility and under pressure from outside and within. On March 28.3.2024, 22.3.2024, Volodymar Zelensky explained to him the situation at the front and urged a quick decision on aid. Already posted on March XNUMX, XNUMX Marjorie Taylor Green from Georgia “as a warning Johnson" the request for its removal. “At the same time it stands Mr Johnson under pressure from government leaders around the world who are holding back the price of American inaction,” writes the New York Times.

(As of now – April 7.4.2024, XNUMX – there is still no light at the end of the tunnel).

(Sources: cnbc.com, January 28.1.2024, XNUMX: “Nikki Haley slams Trump for trying to torpedo congressional border deal”; nytimes.com, 1.4.2024: “Johnson Outlines Plan for Ukraine Aid; House Could Act Within Weeks”; sueddeutsche.de, April 3.4.2024, XNUMX: End of the blockade?”).

 

The final round has begun – from speeches Donald Trump's

The second part of the “American Tragedy” enters the decisive phase. With the primary elections that ran on Tuesday, March 12.3.2024, XNUMX Joe Biden and Donald Trump the delegate votes required for nomination were collected. At their party conferences, the two parties will finally promote their candidates. The Republicans will meet from July 15th - 18.7.2024th, 19 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the Democrats from August 22.8.2024th - XNUMXnd, XNUMX in Chicago, Illinois. Then at the latest we will find out who the running mate – the candidate for vice-presidency – is Donald Trump will be. This is clear for the Democrats: the previous vice president Kamal Harris will be back in the race.

The New York Times wrote on March 12.3.2024, XNUMX: “Meanwhile Mr. Trump and Mr Biden the primaries behind them. The president does not have to fear any significant challengers from his own party and will focus his campaign speeches not only on the outcome of his four-year presidency but also on the dangers that, in his opinion, come with it Mr. Trump Two complexes in particular should be mentioned: 

• Domestically, there is a danger that democracy in America will be indescribably damaged;
• In terms of foreign policy, there is a danger that the USA will sink into isolation and gamble away its credibility by blocking further aid to Ukraine.

The two candidates described their image of America in different speeches. Donald Trump for example in his victory speech on Super Tuesday (5.3.2024) and Joe Biden with his State of the Union Address on the 7.3.2024. 

What will happen to the announcements and promises made during the election campaign after the election? The NYT columnist Jamelle Bouie quotes an old saying that promises made during an election campaign are almost never kept. However, he also warns against this supposed truth: “What the candidates and their campaign say matters. And how a candidate and their campaign say this also matters.” Given this insight, recommends bouy, can Trumpian To look at rhetoric, for example how he pulls leather against his political opponents and describes them, for example, as “enemies of the people”. (nytimes.com, March 19.3.2024, XNUMX: “Want to Know What Trump Will Do? Listen to What He Says”). It seems Trump to take into account that constant dripping wears away the stone and that the more often he says the same thing, the more likely it is that something will stick in the public eye. Again and again he demonizes the migrants trying to come to the United States from Mexico: “The migrants coming across the southern border are criminals, coming from prisons and mental institutions... These people are criminals to the highest degree then there are facilities for the mentally ill and asylums... and these facilities are being emptied towards the USA... and then there are the terrorists who are flowing in on a scale that we have never seen before...”. And finally the top of the Trumpian Rhetoric: “Immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country.” And, as if that wasn’t enough, he referred to migrants as “animals” and said: “I don’t know if you can call some of them “people.” In my opinion they are not human.”

The New York Times writes: “There is no evidence for any of this. According to border officials, most of the migrants are families fleeing violence and poverty, and despite a few high-profile cases, the numbers show no increase in crime rates that could be attributed to immigration, including murder figures that even fell last year went back" (nytimes.com, October 17.3.2024, XNUMX: “Trump Doubles Down on Migrants 'Poisoning' the Country").

But Trump had the Senate's compromise package, which includes additional money for Ukraine as well as provisions for strengthening the southern border, blocked by his loyalists in the House of Representatives. Not primarily because he doesn't like Ukraine, but primarily because he wants to keep the problems at the border simmering. He knows that the topic of “migration” can create sparks and win votes. 

But now to the speeches Trumps and in the next chapter too Biden's State of the Union Address. As described in previous speeches Trump during his victory speech on Super Tuesday his idea of ​​doom for the USA. Social scientists have to explain why he and his fans are so enthusiastic about it. In his speech on March 5.3.2024, XNUMX in Mar-a-Lago He only spent a moment cheering but described in detail America's bitter fate Biden be re-elected. Trumps Wailing speech described the New York Times as follows: “A dark-looking one Mr. Trump recited a twisted list of grievances and claimed that the country was going under Bidens Leadership sinks into chaos. He railed against the lack of border security, China policy and the withdrawal from Afghanistan, lamenting the brand new equipment left behind: “Planes and tanks and everything you can think of. Binoculars, night binoculars. They couldn't fight at night, now they can because they have binoculars. They have better binoculars than us.” (Trump knows how to tell a story dramatically. Very few listeners notice that he sometimes contradicts himself). And woke up again Trump Doubts about the integrity of the electoral process: “We are a third world country at our borders and we are a third world country at our elections” (nytimes.com, March 5/6.3.2024, XNUMX: “On a Bright Night for his Campaigne, Trump “Again Conjures a Dark Vision”).

Another speech – the “Bloodbath Speech” – from March 16.3.2024, 18.3.2024 should also be mentioned. Because he and his campaign later apparently realized that he had apparently exaggerated the announcement of a bloodbath in the event of an election defeat, he tried on March XNUMX, XNUMX to reinterpret his statements from two days earlier. In two reputable newspapers that I have, the New York Times and the Süddeutsche Zeitung, the content is reported straight away Trump on 16.3.2024/XNUMX/XNUMX in Vandalia, Ohio had stated: There will be a bloodbath if he loses the election on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX. (nytimes.com, 16.3.2024: “Trump Says Some Migrants are 'Not People' and Predicts a 'Blood Bath' if He Loses"; sueddeutsch.de, 17.3.2024: "Trump: Election defeat will be a “bloodbath” for the country).

Meanwhile has Trump explains that the “bloodbath formulation” did not refer to a possible election defeat but to the decline of the American auto industry, which he had spoken about immediately before the “bloodbath” keyword. After Trumpian Compaction However, he does not try to explain the possible misunderstanding but immediately attacks the media. On his social media platform he wrote on March 18.3.2024, XNUMX: “The Fake news media and their partners in the destruction of the country, the Democrats, pretend to be shocked at the use of the term "bloodbath" even though they clearly understood that I was referring to the imports that the rogue Joe Biden approved and will destroy the auto industry.”

What is Donald Trump on 16.3.2024/XNUMX/XNUMX in Vandalia, Ohio He actually wanted to address a possible election defeat or the importation of foreign cars and got in the wrong lane, only he knows. His aggressive reaction did not serve to clear up a possible misunderstanding, but rather deepened the doubts that had arisen. The New York Times quotes a number of previous statements regarding the current dispute Trump, who had to do with violence: “Mr. Trump has resorted to violent messaging since he first ran for president, such as when he promised his supporters at a rally that he would cover their legal costs if they attacked protesters. “He ratcheted up his rhetoric when he lost in 2020, encouraging his supporters in what ended with the storming of the Capitol. He still describes them as persecuted patriots.” And now he has become even clearer: “In September he said that shoplifters were shot and that Mark milley, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff  (of the Joint General Staff) should be executed. He also urged his supporters to go after the New York attorney general, whose office has filed fraud charges against him. In January 2024, he warned that the country would become a madhouse if the lawsuits harmed him in the election.    

The New York Times points out that the Trump Supporter – not least the mob that stormed the Capitol on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX - again and again on the words Trumps responded with “action,” even if his wording was ambiguous. “Police officers and prosecutors who participated in the criminal cases against the former president have received threats, as have electoral staff and administrative staff, and those officials who have refused to participate in the attempts Trumps to participate and turn the 2020 election on its head.” This is the statement from the Republican senator Bill Cassidy from Louisiana, who was sentenced in the impeachment proceedings after January 6.1.2021, XNUMX Trumps had been true: “This type of rhetoric is always on the borderline – maybe it crosses it, maybe not, it depends on the respective perspective” (nytimes.com, 18.3.2024:   “Trump Defends His Warning of a 'Blood Bath for the Country").

In these ambiguous speeches draws Trump a horror image of America to his fans. But why do fans soak up such descriptions like honey? For many Trump supporters likes a rally with Trump run like an entertainment show on television. Others may actually believe they are living in the worst of all worlds. For her has Trump achieved redeemer status. 

 

Joe Biden's “State of the Union Address”

The State of the Union Address of the President in an election year is different from the address in a “normal” year. Otherwise it's about the business-like processing of government services - that NYT This is called the “Laundry List of Accomplishments” – there is much more at stake in the election year. With his 68-minute speech on March 7.3.2024, XNUMX Joe Biden around 32,2 million television viewers alive, That's 18% more than last year, when there were 27,3 million viewers live were there. The New York Times denotes the State of the Union as one of the biggest media events leading up to the November election. The judgment of the NYT: “President Biden delivered an energetic and passionate speech that was both a campaign kickoff and State of the Union and this was used effectively to convince a large number of viewers that he was fit for another four years.” 

Biden describes a completely different image of America, of its government and of its role in the world as "my predecessor" - a term he used for the first time five minutes into the speech and then again and again. So spoke Biden about how "my predecessor" tried to rewrite the history of the storming of the Capitol on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX, how “my predecessor” failed when the pandemic was raging in the country almost exactly four years ago and how “my predecessor” did little to combat China, and how “ “my predecessor” did nothing to combat gun violence. Later - deviating from the manuscript - spoke Biden Trump immediately: “If 'my predecessor' is watching,” he should support the non-partisan draft law on border security and sink it Trump contributed.

“He seemed to enjoy being with her GOP to create,” writes the New York Times. “Heckling from right-wing MPs Marjorie Taylor Greene from Georgia – strikingly dressed in a red one MAGA hat – Biden’s son should pay his taxes, was just right for him. Something like that can be difficult, she noted NYT, and also cause you to come across as angry and unconvincing. But – the newspaper said with an ironic undertone – this was avoided with the help of the Republicans. Biden addressed the question of age humorously: “I know I don’t look like it, but I’ve been traveling for a while. And when you get to my age, you see certain things more clearly than before.” The newspaper report notes that a one-off presentation that was more vivid than usual is not enough to address the widespread concerns of voters Bidens age to dispel. The Republicans will also use this keyword again and again.

I want to present the different economic policy ideas of the two opponents in the next chapter. Biden has in the State of the Union highlighted the issue of abortion, which is particularly unpleasant for Republicans. He spoke about the “power of women,” which will be evident again in 2024, and predicted with regard to this issue: “We will win again in 2024.” The Democrats will particularly emphasize two issues in the election campaign: democracy and abortion  (nytimes.com, March 7/8.3.2024, 5: “XNUMX Takeaways From the State of the Union”).

What's interesting is what they do Southgerman newspaper - to a certain extent with the view from the outside - in their report on the State of the Union particularly highlighted. It quotes one of Bidens Introductory sentences with which he describes the current situation at home and abroad: “The special thing about this situation is that freedom and democracy are under attack at home and abroad at the same time.” Biden rubs salt into one of the Republicans' open wounds when he says Ronald Reagans request and Mikhail Gorbachev Remembered to tear down the Berlin Wall – “the Republicans even clapped for a moment.” But then he added Biden: “My predecessor, a former Republican president, said to Russia's president Vladimir Putin, he could do whatever the hell he wanted... It's dangerous. It is unacceptable.” (Sources: nytimes.com, March 7/8.3.2024, 5: “XNUMX Takeaways From the State of the Union”; nytimes.com, March 8.3.2024, 18: “Ratings Jump XNUMX% for Biden’s Feisty State of the Union”; sueddeutsche.de, March 8.3.2024, XNUMX: “The speech of his life”).

 

Economic policy and other fundamentally different approaches

The phrase “It's the Economy, Stupid” first appeared in the 1992 presidential campaign. had shaped him James Carville, a consultant in the then successful team of Bill Clinton. “It's the Economy, Stupid” has now become a frequently cited slogan in American election campaigns. (More information about this: Wikipedia – Keyword James Carville; As of January 20.1.2024, XNUMX).       

Economic policy issues will also play an important role in 2024. Voters have real alternatives when making their decision. In an opinion piece by New York Times points out the columnist Jamelle Bouie to the opinion often heard and read that there is over Biden and above all about Trump nothing new to report. But Bouie warns. There is still a lot to be said about the plans for the next four years. 

Jamelle Bouie refers to the already described ““Project 2025” of Heritage Foundation, which he described as the “authoritarian restructuring of the executive branch and specifically tailored for Trump" designated. “This is intended to permanently politicize and ideologically align the federal government.” Among other things, that would “Project 2025” Trump authorize the Ministry of Justice to investigate political opponents and to harass opponents through audits and other investigations through the tax administration. 

The second term in office – and this brings Bouie to the economic part of his analysis – would make the federal government, in a “concerted action, an instrument for the redistribution of wealth from bottom to top”. As well as Trump and a Republican-dominated Congress intend to continue the tax cuts passed in 2017 by an additional $3,3 trillion, most of which will benefit the highest income earners. Trump also intends to reduce the corporate tax rate, which would result in another $522 trillion in lost revenue. In order to finance both measures - so feared Bouie – würden Trump and the Republicans the social safety net, for example Medicaid (health care for low-income people), the Food Stamps (Food Assistance for Low-Income People) and other programs for low-income Americans. “Trump has even signaled willingness Medicare and cutting Social Security, a step that may be necessary to offset tax losses if Republicans succeed in reducing federal revenues by another $4 trillion. In a second term Trumps a new attempt must also be expected Affordable Care Act (the so-called Obamacare health insurance) and a large part of the expenditure on climate protection within the framework of the Inflation Reduction Act  to delete.

All in all, a program with two main focuses:

• The traditional republican components: reduction of government spending, dismantling of state structures and thus the state's regulatory power, tax cuts, reduction of social services

Point of view of the priority of individual initiative.

(It should be noted that ideas about the extent of the welfare state in America and Europe already differ significantly).

• The one in particular Trump pursued MAGA goals: Sole specification of the executive branch's goals from above, dismantling of independent decision-making structures and authorities, e.g. B. in consumer, health and climate protection, expansion of a staff that is still loyal at the top and the replacement of employees who do not appear loyal, which is made possible by the protection against dismissal and other employee rights being undermined or repealed).

The plans Bidens aim for this – so concludes Jamelle Bouie from the recently presented budget proposals - the welfare state in the sense of the ideas of Franklin D. Roosevelt to revitalize. The proposals published on March 11.3.2024, XNUMX aim to: Biden to raise $10 trillion in revenue over the next 5 years by increasing corporate and high-income taxes. This will, among other things, Medicare expanded, which was originally in American Rescue Plan included tax breaks for children and other benefits for children are financed. Biden has thus taken up a number of old demands of the Democrats.

Jamelle Bouie gives further explanations on these financial and tax policy agenda items of the two opponents: Americans usually see presidential elections as a “battle between personalities”. That's why the election campaign is primarily about the people involved. “Personality undoubtedly plays a role,” writes Bouie. But there is also a race between different social groups and different organizations that want to achieve very different - sometimes mutually incompatible - things for the country.

The one behind Biden standing groups have wanted to since the presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt in particular public support for working people and public measures to include marginalized groups.

The groups behind Trump In addition to the insatiable desire for fewer taxes, they have a deep desire for dominance. Trump talks less about any political ideas than about taking revenge on critics. He is only interested in the mechanisms of governance with which he can punish his opponents. Bowie summarizes very clearly what is up for election in America in November: “The actual goal of the Trump coalition is not ruling the country but ruling over others” (nytimes.com, 15.3.2024; Jamelle Bouie: “Don’t Think of It as a Contest Between Biden and Trump").

Similar fears as Jamelle Bouie in the New York Times describes Nicholas Piper in the Süddeutsche Zeitung. He names a number of right-wing populists in Western countries who are fighting what they “Globalism“ call: The AfD in Germany, Marine LePen in France, Viktor Orban in Hungary, but especially Donald Trump in America. “If they are able to implement their plans, then dark times await – politically and culturally, but also economically,” writes Piper and adds: “... to the right-wing fighters against the Globalism It's not so much about people's prosperity, but rather about national identity. They put national sovereignty above the individual.” 

In an election Trumps sees Piper dire consequences for both the USA and its trading partners. He writes about this: “Trump’s Economic program is under the slogan “America First.” The programs of other right-wing populists may differ in detail, but in principle they always boil down to one thing: the economy of the appropriate nation must be promoted and protected, if necessary at the expense of others. Behind this is the old goal of the protectionists to produce as many products as possible within their own borders and to introduce protective tariffs for this purpose. It is one of the long-tested findings of classical economics that this policy makes everyone poorer in the long run, including the country that levies the tariffs. With a major economic power like the United States, it only takes some time for this failure to become apparent.” Piper points out that this policy in the first term Trumps was successful. In regions where farms were protected by tariffs, Republicans tended to do better, and Biden I kept it.

With a view to the effects of populist economic policy in the USA on the European Union schreibt Piper: “It’s absurd that Trump resorting to protective tariff policy at a time when the job market in the USA is stronger than it has been for a long time. For Germany there is not the slightest reason to even think about the life-threatening adventure of leaving the EU. In fact, right-wing populism is not fueled by economic problems, but by partly justified fear of the consequences of migration and the feeling of being taken advantage of by a liberal elite in universities and the media” (sueddeutsche.de, 27.3.2024; Nicholas Piper: "“They are planning the crash”).

(It is worth remembering how important the EU is in the first term Trumps was when he flexed his muscles and also introduced protective tariffs. The individual European countries in Europe would be in a bad position if they had to negotiate trade agreements with the USA on their own.    

 

Why enjoy Donald Trump so highly regarded by many evangelical Christians? – On the deification of a sinner

For a better understanding of the beliefs of the Donald Trump supporting white evangelical Christians, I would first like to quote who and what is meant by the term “evangelicalism”:  

 "Of the Evangelicalism (from English evangelicalism) is a theological collective term for various piety and reform movements within Protestantism, which are strongly influenced by the original German Pietism, English Methodism, Puritanism and the American revival movements of the 18th and 19th centuries. Evangelicalism is spreading across denominations. Followers of these movements are today called evangelicals referred to.” (Quoted from Wikipedia – Keyword Evangelicalism; As of: December 22.12.2023, XNUMX)

Thomas B Edsall, the one in his New York Times column which regularly allows personalities from science and civil society to speak on specific topics, recently spoke about the “deification of Donald Trump" written. A dialectical lesson in which Edsall and others explain why the liar, adulterer, slanderer and instigator of violence - in short: sinful man Donald Trump - According to his supporters from the ranks of evangelical Christians, he has found grace before God. Trump is done by one Process of deification an instrument of God for the restoration of America as a Christian nation. In Trump events There are always signs saying this “Thank you, Lord Jesus, for President Trump.” gezeigt.  Trump thereby becomes an inviolable figure of faith. 

As a Donald Trump was accused several times, some evangelical Christians saw this as renewed confirmation that he was a divine instrument. The Trump icon Marjorie Taylor Green on April 3.4.2023, XNUMX, one day before the Manhattan Criminal Court arraignment against Trump because of the falsification of business documents said: “Jesus was also arrested and murdered by the Romans. There have been many people throughout history who have been arrested and persecuted by radical and corrupt governments and this starts today in New York and can't believe this is happening but I will always support him. He didn’t do anything wrong.” Statements like this create connecting lines between Trump and Jesus drawn in a way that Trump can explain to his fans: “They don’t persecute me, they persecute you!”

That Trump The Messiah is believed by groups such as: New Apostolic Reformation or the Independent Network Charismatics not though. For them only Jesus is the Messiah. You don't believe that either Trump has special powers. But he is certainly an agent of God or a vessel through which God works to make America Christian again. Thomas B. Edasll quoted about it John Fen, a professor at the Messiah University in Pennsylvania, dass Trump probably think these Charismatics and Pentecostals are crazy. But if they say that “he has been sent by God, he will gratefully accept the title and use it to get votes…”

Robert P Jones, the founder and chairman of the former Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) writes about it,  Trumps Religious claims are a total fraud: “Trump has amply shown us that he has little religious sensitivity or theological wisdom. He has poor knowledge of the Bible and has stated that he has never sought forgiveness for his sins. He has no significant ties to any church or denomination. He is not only one of the least religious but also one of the most theologically ignorant presidents the country has ever had... And yet, many of his most loyal Christian followers - white evangelical Protestants - see him as something of a metaphorical savior figure ongoing support Trumps by white evangelicals – it concludes Robert P Jones – says much more about how they see themselves than how they see themselves Trump think. The primary driver of white evangelical Protestant politics is vision. their vision of America as a nation primarily of, by and for white Christians. Jones uses the famous formulation when describing the political ideas of evangelicals Abraham Lincoln's in the Gettysburg Address of 1863, with which he described the American principles of government: “A government of the people, by the people, for the people”. For evangelicals, however, the American Civil War (1861-1865) was fought less for the equality of all people and especially against slavery, but was reduced to their rights and to a government of white Christians. 

(Here, striking connections can be drawn to the reasons for the current mass demonstrations against the “right-wing” and for “cosmopolitanism and tolerance” in Germany: both in Germany and in the USA it is about the existence of democracy, about the equality of all people and about the rule of law).

About a third of Americans believe that “God planned to make America a new promised land (promised land) where European Christians build a society that becomes an example for the rest of the world.” This belief is particularly common among evangelical Christians in the USA; 56 percent live with this idea. This idea means - implemented in current politics - the following support numbers for Trump by white evangelicals in the Iowa Republican primary – 53 percent; in New Hampshire – 70 percent; and in South Carolina – 71 percent.

But – about the religiously based ties of evangelical Christians Trump there are also strong secular binding factors. Thomas B Edsall quoted in his NYT illustration Jim Guth, a political scientist at the Furman University in Greenville, SC to the affinity of white evangelical Christians Trumps conservative populism. Gut writes: “White evangelicals are the most immutable of populists: They are more inclined to favor strong leadership (even if it means breaking the rules), to distrust the government, to see the country on the wrong path, and to believe that “the majority should always rule (and the minority adapts).” Another prominent feature of populist politics is the willingness to ignore democratic proprieties.” 

Jim Guth ranked the level of support for conservative populism among religious groups and noted that evangelicals ranked near the top. Two thirds of them fall into the populist category. White Catholics, mainline Protestants, and Latter-day Saints are included in this group to a notable extent, but never reach the level of evangelicals or come close to the majority. Among the religiously unaffiliated and ethno-religious minorities there are only a few - often very few - populists; among Jews, agnostics/atheists, black Protestants and members of world religions are the most opponents of populism.

To answer the question why white evangelical Christians Donald Trump support so strongly even though his personal values ​​and behavior are completely contrary to the biblical and ethical beliefs of their community Jim Guth two reasons:

• As long as he nominates conservative judges and makes appropriate comments on issues like abortion and sexual politics, they will support him;
• The second reason is problematic and more complicated: White evangelicals share Trump  a variety of attitudes, such as hostility to immigrants, his Islamophobia, his racism and nativism, and also his style of politics with all the ugly policies and solemn declarations of strong and unique leadership. Trumps Candidacy makes it possible to announce such attitudes widely for the first time.

Thomas B Edsall concludes his contribution in the New York Times stating: “In other words, conservative populism, with all its anti-democratic implications, has taken root in America. We don’t know for how long – or how much damage it will cause.”

Trump and his campaign are skilfully riding this wave during the election campaign. At election rallies, a video is sometimes shown in which the voice of God proclaims: “I need someone strong and courageous. Who is not afraid or frightened by the wolves when they attack. A man who protects the flock, a shepherd for the people who will not abandon them or betray them. I need a conscientious worker who follows the path and is strong in faith. And who believes in God and in the country.” In the video Donald Trumps son Eric succinctly states that his father literally saved Christianity. Criticism of immoral life clashes with this kind of certainty of faith Trumps very easy.  Trump becomes a religious figure. He is the protector from the enemies - liberals, Democrats, elite, secular, illegal immigrants, etc. - and he protects America from all dangers. Trump is sometimes seen as the God-anointed leader, equipped by God for a particular holy task. Sometimes God chooses people who were least expected. Therefore Trumps Unsuitability for this task is actually evidence of God's favor. The fact that God also uses sinners to achieve his will is described several times in the Bible. At John 8:7 Jesus famously said: “Let the one of you who is without sin be the first to throw a stone…”. The popular wisdom from the South of the USA that I quoted elsewhere sounds similar: “We abhor sin but we forgive the sinner.” It may be difficult to think and feel like this in the context of the person Donald Trumps to understand. But in the United States there are many people who can do all of this. A large cross was also carried during the storming of the Capitol on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX. (Sources: nytimes.com, January 17.1.2024, XNUMX: “The Deification of Donald Trump Poses Some Interesting Questions”; Guest post by Thomas B Edsall).

During the New York Times These emotional and religious worlds of evangelical Christians and the lines of connection to the Republicans were described several times. Passages from the video already mentioned “God Made Trump” were also quoted in a report on January 11.1.2024, XNUMX. This video – it was made by the group “Trump’s Online War Machine” produced, appeared for the first time on January 5.1.2024th, XNUMX Trump platform “Truth Social” and was later also used at election events Trumps shown in Iowa - begins with the dramatic lead: "God looked down on his planned paradise and said, 'I need a guardian' - and God gave us Trump.”  Not all church institutions and officials are enthusiastic about this type of election advertising.  Pastor Joseph Brown from the Marion Avenue Baptist Church in Washington, Iowa, criticized the language of the Bible used in the video and the direct comparison Trumps with God. The NYT adds that not all believers Trump but accept it like this: “Mr. Trump, who rarely attends church, has, however, won the support of a large portion of the country's believers - particularly among the non-traditional and non-churchgoers among Christians.” 

Pastor Darran Whiting from Liberty Baptist Church in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, declared he never would Trump choose. The video is one of the reasons for this. “God has called servant followers, not the arrogant, self-serving, and self-righteous leaders shown in the video” (nytimes.com, January 11.1.2024, XNUMX: “Iowa pastors say video depicting Trump as godly is 'very concerning'”).

Some pastors are downright perplexed as to the reasons that cause Christian-minded people to Trump to support. In another report, the New York Times that again Pastor Joseph Brown from Marion Avenue Baptist Church in Washington, Iowa, not that one Trump but Ron De Santis because he sees him as an experienced administrator with strong convictions, not least on the abortion issue: “We really don't understand why people who claim to stand for values ​​that are biblical, for values ​​of the constitution, turn to someone who is public life and in its language is so different from them. It really goes against everything we stand for as evangelicals and conservative Iowans. I am convinced that he is bringing disgrace to the evangelical movement in Iowa because so many still support him.”  nytimes.com, January 12.1.2024, XNUMX: “Are Iowa Evangelicals on the Trump Train? These Pastors Offer Clues”).

Pastor Joseph Brown said - as quoted above - that he could not explain why evangelical Christians, whose value system is based on the Bible and the Constitution, said that Donald Trump whose ideas about right and wrong, about fair and unfair, and about sincere and deceitful are diametrically opposed to those of evangelicals. Why do they turn a blind eye and accept this behavior and morality? This question is difficult to answer because the reasons are hidden behind a mountain of contradictions. Just as difficult to answer as the unsolvable question of which came first, the egg or the hen. What are the driving forces of Trumpism? Only with that man, with the dubious value system or partly also with those who raise this man “to heaven”? Those who Trump Forgive or even forgive everything possible and in the end still see him as a victim of a biased justice system?

The New York Times columnist Thomas L Friedman addressed similar questions in June 2013. He described how Donald Trump once explained that as a TV star he could grope women anywhere. Friedman also mentioned how Trump, less than four months after his wife gave birth to their son, he had an affair with a porn actress. And Friedman described how Trump in July 2015 in an event about his now deceased party colleague, the senator John McCain Duke, who had to endure more than five years in captivity by the North Vietnamese during the Vietnam War. 

He, Trump, have McCain supported during his presidential candidacy. “But he lost and left us hanging. That's why I didn't like him anymore after that, because I don't like losers." When the audience laughed, the moderator interjected: "But he was a hero!" NYT report then continues like this: “Trump- who avoided the Vietnam draft with a dubious medical deferral – replied: “He’s not a war hero. He is a war hero because he was captured. But I like people who don't get captured." That same day, he posted a tweet with the following caption: "Donald Trump: John McCain is a loser.” (The derogatory term “loser” is used Trump again and again to insult and ridicule other people, especially opponents and even people from your own party. A peculiarity that, upon closer inspection, reveals one's own lousy character. Tried with that Trump always to rise above others. The open question is why his fans particularly like this).

Thomas L Friedman describes two goals that Trump wants to achieve with its “peculiarities”:

• He tries to redefine the quality requirements of a leader. A leader is not this or that, that or that – like, for example liz cheney or My Romney risking your own career to defend the truth. No, a leader is someone who must win at all costs - against the country, against the Constitution and against the good example we set for our children and also against our allies. However, if you describe a leader simply as a “winner type”, then people like that McCaine, Cheney and Romney In the way …
• Trump doesn't care about rules of etiquette that set limits for him. He is simply pursuing his limitless desire for power for power's sake. 

A former companion Trump, his former national security adviser John Bolton summarized all of this in two sentences: “Trump has no governing philosophy. He sees everything as a transaction, where the crucial question is how Donald Trump benefits from it. (Sources: nytimes.com, 13.6.2023; Thomas L Friedman: Trump Thrives in a Broken System. He’ll Get Us There Soon.” sueddeutsche.de, March 1.3.2024, XNUMX: “Trump will withdraw from NATO”; Interview with John Bolton, lead by Fabian Feldmann).

A summary could look like this: The group of white evangelicals in the various Protestant churches in the USA are loyal supporters Donald Trumps become. To an all-encompassing one Trump block are the theologically conservative churches in America, such as the Southern Baptist Convention, can Churches Christian and the Mega churches and Pentecostal churches not become. It would go beyond the scope of this presentation if I wanted to report on the various internal discussions and disputes in the individual church congregations and in the church leadership, for example when pastors leave their congregations or are terminated by the congregation or about the dispute in some church leadership over calling of women in leadership positions or the pushback against women by evangelical forces in individual churches. (Extensive information on the keyword Evangelicalism see Wikipedia, as of 22.12.2023).  

 

Electoral scolding?

After re-reading the previous chapter, I wonder if it contains too much pessimism? Or whether, given the enthusiasm of many evangelicals for the “sinner” Trump the insulting of this group of voters – and many others too Trump Supporter – isn't it justified?  Trump had already declared in 2016 that he spoke for the “silent majority of Americans”. For “normal Americans”, for “average Americans”. There are many “blue collars” among them, people from working-class backgrounds who do not have any higher education. Why “love” them Trump most notably? Are they unable to assess the consequences of their consent? 

Fabian Fellmann wrote on January 14.1.2024, XNUMX under the heading “The voter, the unknown being” the sentence: “The more Trump presented as an enemy of democracy, the more enthusiastically his supporters cheer him on." Why did I include this sentence? Fellmanns report in the Süddeutsche Zeitung underlined? Somewhere between the lines the accusation appeared to me: “You cannot estimate what you are doing!” 

Auch Jamelle Bouie from the New York Times - he is a well-founded critic Trump’s – has dealt with the topic of voter responsibility and with the criticism of the writing guild Trump fans busy: “Too many commentators have spent too much time complaining about the Trump voters There is too much to worry about and too little thought has been given to the millions of voters who have repeatedly said that they do not want this man and his movement in American politics.” 

Mamelle Bouie indicates that Trump Even in 2016, when he won the election, he did not receive the majority of votes. Furthermore, that the MAGA Republican Lost the majority in the House of Representatives in 2018 and - despite very different expectations - only narrowly regained it in 2020. And finally also that the of Trump In 2020, people supported the close contests in Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania all lost. This is reminiscent of an accusation Ron De Santis his opponent, who has now become a friend again Donald Trump has done again and again: “Trump can't win, Trump loses the elections.” Is there something about “whistling in the forest” in this description? This cannot be predicted today, almost nine months before the election on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX. Fabian Wellman cites the Anglo-Saxon truism that the only relevant poll is the one on election day. Trump is – also in view of the results of the Times/Siena poll from the end of February 2024, the Trump with 48 percent Biden with 43 percent sees – to beat again if it Biden and Democrats manages to get all the people who don't want that to the polls Trump becomes US President again. Many voters may be faced with the question on November 5.11.2024, XNUMX: “Which of the two is the “lesser evil”? (Sources: sueddeutsche.de, January 14.1.2024, XNUMX: “The Voter, the Unknown Being”; nytimes.com, 6.1.2024: Jamelle Bouie: “Trump doesn’t actually speak for he silent majority”; nytime.com, March 2.3.2024, XNUMX: “Voters Doubt Biden's Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds”).

 

America is experiencing a dirty election campaign

Reported on February 1.2.2024, XNUMX CNN in the show "This Morning" the following survey numbers:

 

                                                                    Total women

 

                          Joe Biden                            50% 58%

                          Donald Trump                  44% 36%

 

It was noted that preserving democracy was the most important issue of the election for voters.

 

In the fictional race Biden ./. Haley The following forecast figures were reported:

 

                            Joe Biden                           42%

                            Nikki Haley                       47%

 

These numbers are likely for Trump have been annoying in two respects: In the “Battle of the Giants” he had it Biden overtaken for the first time and actually he should now fight intensively Biden go into the election campaign. But he still had to go along with it Nikki Haley deal with that just wouldn't budge and through the fictitious number Biden -/. Haley also received a boost. Once again she is on the cue “Electability” against Trump entered the race. Haley had taken up the country's aversion to an election campaign by the two "old men" and thus attacked both Trump as well as most biden This came about Trump before the primaries in South Carolina under increased pressure and is experiencing a strange situation. This election campaign was and is indeed exceptional in several respects and gives cause for concern. A striking example:

At first glance it is incomprehensible how Donald Trump his fans against the pop icon Taylor Swift have gone into a spiteful war and are firing on all cylinders - above and below the belt, especially on social media. Social media is particularly suitable for spreading conspiracy stories, such as those Taylor Swift is a secret agent for the Pentagon. Nasty insults and threats are also common. In a comment in the Heilbronn voice asks Thomas Spang, where this from Trump The hatred that has been unleashed comes and mentions three keywords: Envy, jealousy, fear (Heilbronn voice, February 2.2.2024, XNUMX: “Bizarre Campaign”; Comment from Thomas Spang).  Taylor Swift does not want to become American president, so she is not a political opponent Trumps. However, what happened around them gives rise to fears of bad things for the “real” election campaign. How loaded with hate Trump only against Biden go into battle when everything is at stake? 

The New York Times expects an ugly, despondent and endlessly dragging debate between two unpopular candidates. The newspaper describes this in a comprehensive report Biden's anti-Trump battle plan, and where Taylor Swift could be placed in it.” A recommendation from the superstar would be the fulfillment of the wildest dreams Biden teams, she writes NYT. Swift already has 2020 for Biden advertised. However, four years ago she was not yet so high in the sky of stars. Formerly existed swifts Fan base predominantly made up of teens and even younger kids. But they have now reached voting age, she writes New York Times. A pair of  Social media post from Swift, such as: “I have always and I will vote for candidates who protect human rights and stand up for what we have earned in this country. I believe in fighting for LGBTQ rights and that any kind of discrimination based on gender or sexual orientation is wrong,” therefore has a completely different, broad impact.  Swift  is now open Instagram 279 million followers. Last year brought just one Instagram post from her 35 new voter registrations. A call for donations from Taylor Swift would be worth several million dollars, as she has at the Grammy Awards won in the main category “Album of the Year” for the fourth time on February 4.2.2024th, XNUMX and is therefore equal to greats such as Paul Simon, Frank Sinatra and Stevie Wonder passed by (Heilbronn voice, February 6.2.2024, XNUMX: Grammy record for Taylor Swift"). At the Biden campaign It is being considered whether the President should not host a concert Taylor Swift should visit after she repeatedly advocates for the rights of women and the LGBTQ community  - topics that are part of the agenda Donald Trump don't really want to fit.   

No wonder, that Taylor Swift for Donald Trump has become an important election campaign issue. On February 11.2.2024, XNUMX, he directly targeted her on his social media platform. He reminded them that he had signed a law making it easier for artists to collect royalties when their music is streamed on the Internet. It wouldn't be loyal if she did Biden would recommend for choice. Literally wrote Trump: "Joe Biden has for Taylor have done nothing at all and will continue to do nothing for them. How can she now the crook Joe Biden recommend for election the most corrupt president in the history of our country and become disloyal to the man who helped her make so much money.”( nytimes.com,February 11.2.2024, XNUMX: “Trump Says It Would Be “Disloyal” for Taylor Swift to Endorse Biden”).

(The process shows the simple way of thinking Trumps: In 2018, Congress passed with almost all votes from both parties Music Modernization Act adopted and Trump signed the law as president. Now he expects the artists to be “loyal” and grateful to him).    

On March 5.3.2024th, XNUMX – the Super Tuesday, on which primaries took place in 16 US states – also took effect Taylor Swift into the election campaign, but not in the way that perhaps the Biden campaign had hoped. Remembered with an Instagram post Swift her fans on election day: “I want to remind you to vote for the people who To you Best to represent you if you weren’t already planning on voting today.” She didn’t name a specific candidate. Yes – that’s what she suspects New York Times - The post should be suitable Fox News and MAGA to cause outrage (nytimes.com, 5.3.2024: Taylor Swift “Wants You to Vote Today, Though She’s Not Saying for Whom”).

The Taylor Swift The back and forth in the election campaign is likely to continue. However, it is doubtful whether the reactions Trumps and his supporters at the swifties fall on fertile ground. (More sources too Taylor Swift: nytimes.com, January 29.1.2024, XNUMX: “Inside Biden's Anti-Trump Battle Plan (and Where Taylor Swift Fits In); nytimes.com, 30.1.2024: "Taylor Swift, travis kelce and a MAGA Meltdown; Heilbronn voice, 1.2,.2024: “Trumps Entourage explained Taylor Swift the war").

On such incidents and statements Trumps builds it Biden campaign a special tactic: “The race has no historical parallel – a contrast between two presidents, one of whom has 91 criminal charges against him,” writes the New York Times However, points out that this attempt to reverse the front lines, so to speak, and not turn the election into a referendum on the term of office Bidens but about his predecessor Trump to make, a risk for Biden can be. Trump will respond in the usual unpleasant way with insults and hurtful words - and here lies the calculation but also the risk for them Biden campaign:  The more the public Trump hears and sees, the fewer voters will vote for him. Biden relies on the fact that many Americans value fairness in their dealings with one another.

 

Donald Trump rambles

Donald Trump repeatedly falls into the vice of insulting others with nicknames. I have reported on this elsewhere. But Trump also tells outright lies. When he gets going, he says some things that don't add up. Now, an election campaign is not an event where you can weigh every word. However, the numbers mentioned should be correct. In his 20-minute victory speech on Super Tuesday (March 5.3.2024, XNUMX) found the New York Times ten false or misleading statements Trumps. 

In connection with one of his favorite topics, the flow of immigrants at the southern border of the USA, he said - probably with the intention of the government Biden to discredit: “They brought 325 migrants by plane - flew them in, over the border, into our country. That shows you where they come from, they want open borders.” Presented in Trumpian In conversation, such a statement certainly has an impact: “They” even organize immigrant flights to our country! The New York Times noted: “This is misleading” and explains that Trump apparently quoted from the publications of an organization that advocates for more restrictive immigration regulations. If you look closely: In 2023, around 320 people were allowed to immigrate to the USA by plane. “But this is not a secret operation, eh Trump gives the impression,” writes the NYT. These immigrants came through specific programs, such as certain quotas, from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, who received entry permits for family reunification, among other things, under the heading “visas for humanitarian reasons.” They had previously gone through an official procedure and organized the flight themselves. This group of people is not comparable to the people who try to cross the southern border of the USA without permission. But the sentence: “They are flying 325 migrants into our country” sounds much more dramatic in the election campaign than the attempt to talk about legal programs and whether and perhaps for which group of people they should be changed.

Another statement Trumps dated March 5.3.2024, XNUMX - on the same topic - refers to the New York Times simply as “wrong”.  Trump had proclaimed, “We built 571 miles of the Wall.” The explained this NYT, that the southern border of the United States with Mexico is more than 1 miles long. In the 900 election campaign Trump promised to build a wall along this border – “which didn’t happen.” The Trump administration erected 458 miles of border barriers, mostly replacing or reinforcing existing fortifications. According to official reports, only 47 miles of new and original barriers were erected in places where there were no existing fortifications.

Another false statement Trumps dated March 5.3.2024, 85: “We left new and beautiful equipment worth $XNUMX billion in Afghanistan.” This statement was also “wrong.” Trump stated the value of all security goods supplied by the USA to Afghanistan over a period of 20 years; this value: 88,6 billion dollars. According to the Ministry of Defense, the withdrawal from Afghanistan left behind material worth $7 billion (nytimes.com, October 6.3.2024, XNUMX: “Trump's Super Tuesday Speech: Assessing 10 False and Misleading Claims”).

 

Auch Biden can distribute  

He took part in two speeches Trump very fundamentally and described the election as a decision between a candidate who stands up for American ideals and an agent of chaos who wants to abandon them for his own benefit.

The first speech was given Biden on January 6.1.2024th, XNUMX, the third anniversary of the storming of the Capitol at a place steeped in history Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, wo George Washington wintered with the American revolutionary troops in the American Revolutionary War of 1777/78. In this place, whose importance for freedom and democracy every school child in America hears about again and again Joe Biden very basic statements: “Democracy is on the ballot.” Or: “We all know who Donald Trump is. The question is: who are we?”  iden compared Trump with foreign autocrats who rule with orders and lies. Trump failed the basic test for American leaders, which is to trust the judgment of the people in electing their officials and to abide by their decision.  Trump replied Biden and accused him of engaging in “pathetic scaremongering” and abusing the legacy of George Washington.

There are voices that doubt that this type of rhetoric will resonate with voters. The Republican Senator and Trump critics My Romney from Utah said he believes the focus on threats to democracy is a dead letter. The Democratic Senator John Fetterman from Pennsylvania put it succinctly: “2024 will be about good versus evil.” 

In all of this it becomes clear that there is a conflict between two presidents from completely different parts of the country: the president of “Blue America” and the president of “Red America,” he summed up NYT journalist peter baker. This is about much more than the binary opposition of “liberal” and “conservative” between the two political parties, as generations of Americans know it. This is partly about ideology, but also fundamentally about race and religion and culture and economics and democracy and retribution but above all, perhaps, about identity. peter baker describes the individual areas over which America is deeply divided. I don't want to describe them in detail. In summary, one can say that in the United States two fundamentally different living environments have developed and are still developing, which no longer find a connection or a door to meet each other. In 2024, the USA will experience a completely extraordinary election campaign, if not unique in its history. Joe Biden and Donald Trump will in all probability be the two opponents - and there will not only be tough but also dirty arguments. (Sources: nytimes.com, 3.1.2024: “Biden Plans 2 Campaign Speeches to Underscore Contrast With Trump”; nytimes.com, 5.1.2024: “Biden Condemns Trump “as Dire Threat to Democracy in a Blistering Speech”; nytimes.com, January 25.1.2024, XNUMX: “The Looming Contest Between Two Presidents and Two Americas”; nytimes.com, January 29.1.2024, XNUMX: “Inside Biden's anti-Trump Battle Plan (and Where Taylor Swift Fits In”).

The deep rift in American politics - but also in American society - is reflected not least in the fact that the opponents no longer call each other by name. president Biden spoke in his State of the Union speech on March 7.3.2024, XNUMX only by his “predecessor” and named Donald Trump not by name.  Trump talk about Biden for a long time only with a nickname. This divide runs not only between Democrats and Republicans but also across the Republican Party. Trump had on Super Tuesday (March 5.3.2024, 15) won the primaries in 16 of the XNUMX voting states against the only opponent. At the victory celebration Mar-a-Lago he called Nikki Haley not once. He had previously called the former UN ambassador “sparrow brain”. Trump must have been annoyed that she defied him for so long; on March 6.3.2024, XNUMX she gave up. Already had before Nikki Haley explains that it will – unlike its competitors DeSantis, Scott and Ramaswamy, the election recommendations for the exit Trump have given - “Don’t kiss the ring.” 

Also the Editorial Board of New York Times Assumes that Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate and opened the 2024 election year with a warning and wake-up call: “Americans should pause and consider what a second term in office means Trumps would mean for our country and the world and consider the serious responsibility that rests on their shoulders in this election. From now on, most Americans should have no illusions about who Mr. Trump is. During his many years as a real estate developer and as a television personality, then as president and dominant figure in the Republican Party Mr. Trump demonstrated a character and disposition that make him completely unsuitable for high office.

Im NYT Editorial a number of former officials will be in Trumps Government quotes: John Kelly, Bill Barr, Mark Esper, Und Mike Pence. They all come to a similar conclusion. Each sentence is both a warning and a hammer blow: “We call on Americans to put aside their political differences, their resentments and their partisanship, and to reflect—as families, as congregations, as councils and clubs, and as individuals—on the real significance of the decision they make in November.” 

The editorial lists individual plans that have become known so far Trumps for a possible second term of office, including the extensive handbook “Project 2025”, in which the future structures, priorities and personnel of the Trump's White House (I will report on this later). The following sentence is used in front of the person: Donald Trump warned: “These ambitious intentions show that years out of office and the growing challenges that will come his way have alone sharpened his worst instincts.” (nytimes.com, January 6.1.2024, XNUMX; “This Election Year Is Unlike Any Other”; Editorial of New York Times)

 

The political climate in the USA has become worse

“America faces a dirty election campaign,” is how I titled a previous chapter. To underline this headline, the reported on February 4.2.2024th, XNUMX New York Times: “Nikki Haley has asked the Secret Service for special protection after threats against them have increased." A particularly nasty scam has been haunting the USA for some time: the so-called “Swatting.” Haley was affected by this twice within a short period of time. 

Swatting is so bad because the completely unsuspecting victims suddenly find themselves face to face with a heavily armed police force who assume that a crime has occurred at the place they were called to and that they may have dangerous people involved. At the Swatting an anonymous call reporting a crime triggers this deployment; it has severe psychological consequences for the victims. 

The incident on December 30.12.2023, XNUMX is reported in the NYT described like this: A caller told the authorities that he had shot his girlfriend in the house; there were children on site and he threatened to harm himself. The officers displayed their weapons when they arrived on the scene; and asked the three people present to raise their hands. They soon realized that the call was a sick joke. The people in the house were the parents of Mrs Haley and a carer. The parents of Haley are 87 and 90 years old.

Final remarks in NYT report: “These events have contributed to a heightened climate of intimidation and violence since Mr. Trump and his allies began spreading lies and conspiracy theories about the supposedly stolen 2020 election. In October 2022 Paul Pelosi, the husband of Nancy Pelosi, the former Speaker (of the House of Representatives) was seriously injured when a burglar broke into the house and knocked him down with a hammer" (nytimes.com, October 5.2.2024, XNUMX: “Nikki Haley “Facing Rising Threats, Requests Secret Service Protection”).

 

What if …? The concerns of Americans  

The fears and concerns about the future of the United States that emerge from the President's two speeches and from the editorial of the New York Times should resonate Donald Trump and his troops move into the White House again are not doom-filled individual voices. Some of what is said and written in it is reminiscent of the book “How democracies die (Original title: ““How Democracies Die”). The authors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt have shown that democracies are no longer unhinged by a revolution or a civil war, but rather by the slow and often unnoticed “transformation” of constitutional structures and the law. The starting problems of the new government in Poland, after the election of the PIS government It becomes clear how difficult it is to reverse such changes in the state structure and to strengthen the weakened democratic pillars, such as the judiciary. The changes in the Polish justice system and in the public information system did not automatically disappear the day after the election. The ones from the PIS government The appointed judges and officials are still in office and are sometimes trying to support the government Tusk to make it more difficult to restore democracy and the rule of law in the country. The President should be mentioned Andrzej Duda, whose term of office ends next year.

The New York Times columnist Michelle goldberg traveled to Poland in January 2024 and wrote a comprehensive report about it. Its headline: “In Poland I saw what a second term in office was like Trumps could do to America.” (nytimes.com, February 6.2.2024, XNUMX: “In Poland, I Saw What a Second Trump Term Could Do to America”). Adam Bodnar, The new Polish Minister of Justice described the immense challenges of restoring liberal democracy in Poland after the country slipped into autocracy within eight years. The PIS government had always carried out the “conversion” in small steps. Michelle goldberg The book “How Democracies Die” also mentions this. The objectives of the previous government were clear and visible for a long time. Looking back, convinced Europeans ask themselves why European Union watched patiently for so long. 

As a warning and at the same time a reminder to her compatriots, the journalist describes how liberal values ​​in Poland were in retreat almost everywhere and how, ultimately, women and young people in particular fought for the restoration of their rights. In the parliamentary election on October 15.10.2023, 30, voter turnout among those under 60 was higher than among those over XNUMX. “Encouraging and sobering at the same time,” writes Michelle goldberg, “Because it quickly became clear how difficult it is to repair a modern democracy that had been systematically undermined - a lesson we may one day have to learn in America.”

Poland is a country that has just gotten over what Trump wants to achieve in a second term: to undermine the government's institutions and replace the experienced officials in the executive branch with lackeys and ideologues. “For democracy in Poland, the elections were the last opportunity to fend off the march towards Budapest,” quoted Michelle Geldberg a newly elected member of Parliament, the 29-year-old daughter of immigrants from Thailand; She was elected to the Sejm as the youngest member and the only non-white person. Goldberg describes how the PIS rebuilt the country to secure power and make it “democracy-proof”. I don't want to describe the details. This also echoes what was highlighted in the book “How Democracies Die”: the “reconstruction” is carried out “legally”, based on majorities that are achieved in elections. Once the “reconstruction” has reached a certain stage, the autocrats take precautions to ensure that new majorities cannot decide on “reconstruction”. The changed structures in the justice system, the lackeys and ideologues placed in key positions and the loyal state media are doing everything to make this “reconstruction” more difficult if not to prevent it. 

What's interesting is how Michelle Geldberg describes to her American compatriots what has become of the media in Poland: “The PIS turned the public media into a rancid and hysterical agitprop force that Fox News “makes (the arch-conservative TV station in the USA) seem fair and balanced.” (nytimes.com, February 6.2.2024, XNUMX: “In Poland, I Saw What a Second Trump Term Could Do to America”). 

Michelle goldberg wrote a clear and devastating report. Americans know from recent experience what lopsided majorities on the nation's Supreme Court mean supreme court, can effect. Now leads Donald Trump publicly announced the restructuring of the leadership level of his own party. It looks like a test run of how and what he will reorganize the executive branch of the USA after a possible election victory on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX. 

On October 8.3.2024th, XNUMX Ronna McDaniel, She has been the chairwoman of the since 2017 Republican National Committee (RNC), fired and by the Trump confidants Michael Whatley replaced. Trump and threw his troops Mcdaniels Among other things, they allege that they did not support their candidate sufficiently. As usual, she attended the public TV debates Nikki Haley and the other applicants for the candidacy Trump didn't want to and in which he didn't take part. To take control of that RNC to make it complete, chose Trump his daughter-in-law Laura Trump, son's wife Eric as Vice-Chairman of the RNC . Laura Trump was a speaker at that one Trump event on 6.1.2021/XNUMX/XNUMX in Washington D.C., from which the storm on the Capitol originated. 

The Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that the new RNC top is in the process of “evaluating the organization and staff to ensure that the building is consistent with their vision.” There are reports of the termination of around 60 employees. The SZ quotes the magazine Politico, that a “bloodbath at RNC” reported (sueddeutsche.de, March 12.3.2024, XNUMX: “Make Trump Great Again”).

After being the base of the Republican Party for a long time (GOP) and has also brought the majority of Republican congressmen and senators into shape, he has now also taken control of the party organization. According to this pattern Trump – assuming he wins on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX – the American federal government will also be converted into a family business. About the corresponding plan – that Project 2025 – I will report elsewhere. 

That fits all of this like a glove Donald Trump on March 8.3.2024, XNUMX the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Mar-a-Lago received a warm welcome. Orban will undoubtedly play an important role in future European policy Trumps have to play: He will continue to be the disruptor in the European integration process. Received him on March 8.3.2024, XNUMX Trump with words of praise: “He is a great head of government, a very strong man. Some people don't like him because he's so strong." And Orban pries Trump as the “President of Peace.”

Viktor Orbans “Illiberal Democracy” has long been a role model for MAGA Republicans in America. Compared to Putin's Russia is not an authoritarian police state in which government critics are imprisoned or even killed. In Hungary, however, critical voices are also being dealt with - but with more difficult means. Independent media are cut off and starved of the advertising market and ultimately by the government party Fidesz controlled media branded as deviants and traitors. 

"To have something Trump and Orban ideologically common?” is stated in a report by the New York Times . Andrew Higgins, the head of department responsible for Eastern and Central Europe NYT mentions several points:

• Their activities are based less on ideology and more on style. They share a mindset that can be described as “let’s rock the ship”;           
• There is the greatest agreement on their relationship with Russia and their stance on immigration;
• You are against further arms deliveries to Ukraine.

Andrew Higgins does not mention a point here that, in my opinion, Trump and Orban What also connects them is their critical distance, if not aversion, to the European Union in its current form. It would be a nightmare – should be Trump be elected, him together with Orban – for joy Putin’s – to see “go into battle” against the EU. The New York Times noted that Orban –  Unlike the British, for example – they do not intend to leave the EU and cites one Orban statement from December 2023: “I don’t plan to “leave” but rather to take over Brussels.” 

One fundamental difference in the policies of the two heads of government should be mentioned: their relationship with China. Orban is China's last reliable partner in the EU. Trump has completely different ideas here. (Sources: nytimes.com, February 1.2.2024, XNUMX: “For Orbán, “Ukraine Is a Pawn in a Longer Game”; nytimes.com, March 7.3.2024, XNUMX; The Morning: “Orban in Florida").

The White House chose an interesting way to respond to the visit Viktor Orban consider Donald Trump to react. In a speech by the American ambassador David pressman On March 14.3.2024, 25, on the occasion of the XNUMXth anniversary of Hungary's accession to NATO, he made some critical comments about US relations with Hungary. The country is an ally, but it behaves differently than everyone else. “We have to decide how we can protect our security interests, which should be the common interests of all allies.” Washington is also responding to an interview that Orban immediately after his visit to the USA with the Hungarian state television. Trump explained to him in detail how he wanted to end the war in Ukraine and that this plan included ending American aid to Ukraine. 

In his speech, the American ambassador cited a long record of sins by NATO ally Hungary. The Hungarian government refused to issue license plates for family members' cars to the relatives of the American soldiers stationed in Hungary. With irony in his voice, the ambassador added: “Of course this speech is not about license plates, but this event shows the worrying state of Hungary's relations with its allies. The report mentions the New York Times also that Turkey and Hungary were the only countries that blocked Sweden's accession to NATO for a long time (nytimes.com, October 14.3.2024, XNUMX: “Orban “Endangers Hungary’s Status as an Ally, US Diplomat Says”).

Even an ordinary citizen who is not well versed in the high school of diplomacy can see from this speech what a daring game this is about to play Viktor Orban with his visit Donald Trump in the middle of the American election campaign. Wins Trump the election in November Orban become the most important statesman and partner of the USA in Europe. Loses Trump and Biden remains president, loses Orban further trust among NATO and EU allies and must continue to try to appear to his compatriots as a great world politician. But Poland has shown that voters do not believe in such announcements forever.      

In the USA, it's not just the Democrats who are warning against re-election Trumps. The former Republican congresswoman made a number of appearances liz cheney a dramatic attempt to deprive the Republicans of a nomination Trumps to dissuade: Show the world who we are with your voice. Shows that we are a good and great nation,” she said on January 5.1.2024, XNUMX at the Democracy Summit Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. “Show the world that we will defeat the plague of cowardice sweeping the Republican Party.” Yes liz cheney takes place in Congress and at the leadership level GOP barely heard. It is doubtful whether their warnings will reach the Republican membership. But Cheney is next to Nikki Haley, who urged her to continue – one of the few who Trump and the MAGA ideology criticize harshly. 

liz cheney griff Trumps grandiose statement in a campaign speech that the American Civil War (1861 – 1865) could have been prevented if President Lincoln would have “negotiated”. What and who wanted Trump achieve with such a casual interpretation of American history? Did he want to appear to his fans as the great dealmaker who would have prevented that disaster in US history through his irresistible negotiating skills with the slaveholding states in the south of the country? Americans who are more knowledgeable about U.S. history than Donald Trump will probably just shake their heads at such presumptions. liz cheney asked back, what part of the civil war could have been “negotiated”? About the slave question? Or the southern states leaving the Union? Or if Lincoln Should the Union have been saved at all? Abraham Lincoln was murdered by a fanatical southerner in 1865. He can defend himself against them Trumpian no longer resist contemptuous criticism. But Americans today are called to reflect on their history. Formulated on the social media platform “X”. liz cheney a question for the members of the Republican Party – the party Abraham Lincoln's - can Trump as President recommends: “How in the world can you excuse something like that?” 

Probably has Donald Trump never very intensively concerned with the history of his country. That may be pardonable; Many of his compatriots probably didn't do this either. What is reproachable and dangerous, however, is that he suggests that he understands something about it. Trump acts as if to impress his fans. In reality, he is just showing his arrogance. Abraham Lincoln, one of the greatest presidents of the USA, was from the perspective of Trump a bungler because he didn’t “negotiate.” He, Trump, would have made this deal...

liz cheney has not ruled out running as a third party candidate against Trump to go into the race. In your Dartmouth speech She said her future plans also depended on whether Republican voters heeded her call. “I will do what is most effective around the election Trumps "The decision she wants to make in the next few months also depends on what happens in the Republican primaries (nytimes.com, 7.1.2024: With Time Running Short, liz cheney Implores Republicans to Reject Trump").

One thing is clear: a candidacy Cheney's would have almost no chance of getting into the White House. But it could be enough Trump to take decisive votes in some swing states. Cheney would be for the previous supporters of Nikki Haley a successor against Trump.  But what will happen? Nikki Haley do? As things stand, she will have to decide in the foreseeable future about withdrawing from the candidate race - unless something completely surprising happens.

(When I arrived at this question in the draft of this paper, Haley still against Trump in the Republican primary race; she only left on March 6.3.2024, XNUMX. But I didn't want to delete this passage because it highlights the drama that still existed in the Republican primary race at the time.

Should Haley – Contrary to all expectations - in the end, being the Republican candidate, this would also have an impact on the candidacy of Joe Biden, because then the “age question” would take full effect. According to the February 1.2.2024st, XNUMX from CNN published poll number of a fictitious race Biden ./. Haley show the latter with 5 percentage points ahead of the president. 

Back to the original question: What will happen? Nikki Haley what to do if she gets out? She will, like that DeSantis, Scott and Ramaswamy the front runner Trump ask for forgiveness and possibly actively support him or will she - similar to that liz cheney - stay strong in character? (I didn't dare make a prediction at the time):

After these (initially) open questions, I want to return to my (certain) prediction in an earlier chapter: America is facing a dirty election campaign. In a comprehensive report, the long-standing NYT journalist Lisa Lerer on January 13.1.2024, XNUMX - two days before the Republican caucus events in Iowa - with the mood in the country. Lerer reported on the fear, anxiety and hopelessness that hovered over the Iowa primary. Voters were talking about a third world war, about public unrest and about fears that the country could be torn apart. In one section of their report describes Lerer the difference between the 2020 election and the upcoming election in November 2024: “Four years ago, voters were worried about the spreading pandemic, economic uncertainty and protest in the country. Now – before the first presidential election since the siege of the Capitol on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX – these fears have metastasized and have become an existential fear about the crucial foundations of the American experiment.” (nytimes.com, 13.1.2024:   “On the Ballot in Iowa: Fear, Anxiety, Hopelessness”).

Fear, anxiety and hopelessness and on top of it all the most likely Republican candidate, Donald Trump, who understood how to serve these uncertain moods in America in 2016 and still knows how to do so excellently today. Lisa Lerer quoted the fellow citizen in her report Mark Binns, which is an election event Nikki Haley had visited: “A civil war is imminent – ​​I am convinced of it.” Some voters will make their voting decision based on their gut, even though elections should primarily be decided in their heads. All worries should be evaluated in your head before they sink into your gut feeling. I have this several times “Project 2025” mentioned, that extensive elaboration of the Heritage Foundation, which has the goal of Trumpism to be firmly anchored in American institutions. But the gut feeling is not enough "Project" And to understand its impact on American society, voters must know and evaluate the plans.

Already in mid-2023 the New York Times in a comprehensive presentation, how Trump and his allies plan to structurally restructure the federal government and administration in a way that will amass significantly more power to the president and weaken the independence of key federal agencies. In the end this would result in the balanced system of “Checks and Balances” that Americans are so proud of, restructured in favor of presidential power. When faced with these plans, one is reminded of how Trump During his first term in office, the autocrats of the world – too Putin and Erdogan – admired and secretly envied their ability to simply rule. The “Project 2025” would give him the opportunity to do so.

“No one is above the law.” This sentence is in view of the contrary Trump accusations made in America are heard again and again. But Trump and an army of lawyers are trying to obtain absolute immunity for the former president in the face of these proceedings. I'll give you the key word here Immunity, in order to create a connecting line to another report from the New York Times to pull. Kate Shaw, a law professor at the Cardozo Law School in New York, dealt with it in a guest article in the NYT with Trumps Try at Supreme Court to achieve absolute immunity and thus get rid of many legal worries in the election year of 2024. Kate Shaw expresses doubts based on previous decisions of the court Trumps The idea that he is entitled to absolute immunity. She quotes a sentence from the judge Tanya Chutkan from US District Court of the District of Columbia, that these previous decisions Trump does not confer the divine right of kings to escape the criminal responsibility to which his fellow citizens are subject. Shaw As a conclusion to her contribution, states that – should Trump If they are proven right on the immunity issue, it would send a sobering message. The message is that in a second term he would be able to do some of what he always wanted to do: the persecution of political opponents, the abuse of... Insurrection Act (This law from 1807 gives the President exceptional authority to deploy the National Guard or regular military within the USA in the event of an insurrection) as well as to dismantle the public administration - knowing full well that he would Supreme Court Due to its immunity, it cannot and will not put any obstacles in its way  (nytimes.com, October 19.12.2023, XNUMX: “Trump Has Always Wanted to Be King. “The Supreme Court Should Rid Him of That Delusion”).

I wrote this text Trumps Immunity ideas on February 6.2.2024th, 6.2.2024, to a certain extent parallel to real events, because on this day, February XNUMXth, XNUMX, the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit with the votes of all three judges unanimously decided that Trump has no immunity in the proceedings related to the storming of the Capitol. According to the court, this decision means: “Despite the privileges of his former office Mr. Trump subject to federal criminal laws like any other American.” (nytimes.com, February 6.2.2024, XNUMX: “Federal Appeals Court Rejects Trump's Claim of Absolute Immunity”).

 Trump A period of time to appeal this judgment was granted. He will make the final decision supreme court. His decision will also impact the political agenda Trumps have. Should him Supreme Court In contrast to the ruling of the lower court, giving absolute immunity and thus the power of the kings would be in keeping with the restructuring of the state “Project 2025” nothing stands in the way – if he is elected as the next president on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX. 

Hoping that the Supreme Court follows the decision of the lower court and Trump denied the “divine right of kings”, I return to the plans Trump, with the “Project 2025” to significantly increase the power of the president; in other words: in his hands – should he win the election – additional decision-making power will be concentrated. The further plans of the Heritage Foundation, that conservative think tank that has been around since... Reagan presidency helped shape the political and personnel priorities of Republican administrations, go into detail. They describe what the next Republican president needs to do from the day power is handed over in order not to - like when he first took office Trump’s – to get into chaos. More about that later.

Trump and his closest aides do not hide what they are planning: “The current executive branch was developed by the liberals to make liberal policies. It is not possible to work with these structures in a conservative way. It is not enough to have the right staff. What is necessary is to rebuild the entire system,” said John McEntee about the big project. McEntee has already taken place earlier Trump worked. Russell T. Vought, the former boss Trump's in Office of Management and Budget, formulated the future direction similarly: “We want to find the niches of independents and hone them.” These general statements could be summarized as follows: “In a future Republican administration there should be no divergent opinions and no independent decisions give to a subordinate position. Only the president sets the direction and the next level has to function without any ifs and buts.”

The New York Times In a report dated July 17/18.7.2023, XNUMX, names the areas in which the President's decision-making power should be expanded and the previous responsibilities of other levels should be curtailed:

• the area of ​​independent authorities, such as the Federal Communications Commission, which is responsible for establishing and enforcing the regulations for television and internet companies and also the Federal Trade Commission, which enforces a variety of antitrust regulations and other consumer protection regulations against the economy, should be placed under the direct control of the President.
• The previous practice of “impounding" should be reintroduced. “Impounding” gives the president the ability to easily block programs for which Congress has appropriated funds but which the president does not “like.” This practice was introduced at the time of the presidency of Richard Nixon forbidden. Reintroduction would weaken Congress' decision-making power.
• Employee protection for tens of thousands of public employees is to be abolished. This could result in the dismissal of those officials who are seen as “obstacles” to the implementation of the (President’s) agenda. 

It is also planned to use the secret services, the Foreign Ministry and the national defense institutions as “assistants” in the investigation and dismissal of such employees who are involved in the Trump The grid described falls: “People from the sick political class who hate our country.” 

The implementation of all these plans, explains the NYT, goes back to the long effort of conservative constitutional lawyers “administrative state” to fight. This primarily includes authorities that implement laws intended to ensure clean air and water, safe food, medicine and other consumer products. Understandably, there are always conflicts with the economy. 

The term "Deregulation" is in the room. At the time of Ronald Reagan The main aim was to remove regulations that hinder the development of the economy - one of the primary goals of the “Reaganomics,” which at that time also from Margaret Thatcher were represented. In the meantime, something like an ideological battle has developed in the USA, which is primarily being fought by... MAGA conservatives against everything that could have the appearance of liberalism: from school books that deal with racial issues, the history of slavery or LGBTQ issues, to climate protection and the question of whether or not people are the main responsible for global warming.

Donald Trump brought these complicated connections down to the following denominator for his fans at an election rally in Michigan: “We will “Deep State” tear down. We will throw the warmongers out of our government. We will drive out the globalists. We will drive out the communists, Marxists and fascists. And we will throw out the sick political class that hates our country.” With this, he described one of his goals – the restructuring of the state executive branch – in catchy slogans and received great applause for this at his rallies  (nytimes.com, December 17/18.7.2023, XNUMX: “Trump and Allies Forge Plan to Increase Presidential Power in 2025”).

Then – to further explain Americans’ concerns in the event that Trump the next US President will be – further details of what has already been mentioned several times “Project 2025”. 

 

The Heritage Foundation's big goal: anchoring Trumpism

The New York Times published a detailed interview with the journalist on January 21.1.2024, XNUMX Lulu Garcia Navarro with Kevin D Roberts, since 2021 the president of the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, in which the concept of “politics of strength” was developed in the Reagan years. In the run-up to the upcoming presidential election Heritage the details of a takeover of power Donald Trump or another Republican, to create chaotic conditions in the White House, like in 2016 after the election Trump, to avoid. That was back then Trump became president largely unprepared and had people like Steve Bannon leave the stage for the development of the political content. This should be avoided in 2024 - in the event of a Republican election victory - and the Heritage Foundation put essential parts of the agenda on paper. The key points of the plan are mentioned again in the interview:

• consolidation of presidential power in the executive branch;
• Reduction of the decision-making power of previously independent federal authorities;
• Building a loyal staff in the executive branch that is fully aligned with the President.

It is always the subordinate clauses of the interview that make it clear what ideas are in detail “Project 2025” Are included. Roberts mentioned the Republican senator Joe mccarthy from Wisconsin, who as a “communist hunter” wanted to cleanse the government and the country of ideological opponents in the 1950s. McCarthy's Motives were fine, so Roberts, because real communists would have infiltrated the federal government back then. Only McCarthy's His methods were bad. Comments like this make it clear why Donald Trump repeatedly railed against “communists, Marxists and the elites who hate our country” in his campaign speeches. He is verbally preparing the “cleansing” of the federal administration, which he is carrying out on the basis of the lists of names Heritage Foundation want to implement later. On these lists will be the names of those who will be “fired” and those who will replace them. 

In the further course of the interview, when the keyword “Dismantling the administrative state” is about those "bureaucrats who exercise power in the place of Congress" - and those through an executive order of the President (the “Schedule F”) protection against dismissal is to be withdrawn – is coming Kevin D Roberts once again speaks of the communists, that “secret communist movement in America” and he expresses the suspicion that far more Chinese communists have infiltrated the American government than American communists have done so. He spoke of “agents of the Chinese Communist Party.”

Like in Senator's day Joe mccarthy The infiltration of the state by communists is listed here as a reason for the restructuring plans planned with the new agenda. However, there is an essential difference: McCarthy was searching for individual American communists at the time. The Heritage Foundation Today it is about the “agents of the Chinese Communist Party”, i.e. a large military force. This justification is intended to largely turn the American executive branch on its head and make it beholden to the president - not the American Constitution. Such and similar statements from Kevin D Roberts make it clear that it is “Project 2025” is about much more than the one-off event of a new Republican president taking power. It's about changing structures.

The interview question asked whether it wasn't a contradiction that the Heritage Foundation, which once developed the concept of “politics of strength” and is now against further military aid to Ukraine, gave way Roberts and made two comments:

• It was, among other things, our saber rattling about Ukraine's NATO membership that led to the current situation. “We want Ukraine to win, but it would be very helpful if Germany and France in particular did more to support their neighbor.

(This is exactly where the contradiction lies: debatable mistakes in the past are used to justify why Ukraine is “sacrificed” and the next mistake is made).

• “We are not fans of the EU as it is written today. Whether the EU gives money is irrelevant to us. We want the individual European nation states to send the money.”

 

This is where ideas about Europe and security policy come to light again Donald Trump as president: On the one hand, his accusation that the Europeans lived at the expense of the USA. And on the other hand, his opposition to strengthening Europe through the EU integration process. Trump wanted and wants to conclude its “deals” with the individual states. He sees a united European Union as an opponent. That's probably why Trump the material moisture meter shows you the Brexit advocated. He is indifferent to the disadvantages for Great Britain that have now become apparent. Was and is essential for Trump's MAGA movement the weakening of the EU. Quoted elsewhere in the interview Roberts a sentence that conservative Americans in particular use - not least when refusing further aid for Ukraine: "Why should we consider any international place to be more important than the problems in the USA?" A classic description of the Isolation-reducing foreign and security policy MAGA movement.

Kevin D Roberts made no secret of the fact Viktor Orban particularly contributed to the ideas concerning Ukraine. On the interviewer's note “Orban became the darling of the right. You yourself met him. They praised him on social media,” replied Roberts: “He is a very impressive head of government.” The interviewer then quoted a statement Orbans in the CPAC Conference 2023: “Hungary is the place where people not only talked about the victory over the progressives and liberals and about the need to turn to conservative Christian politics, we did it.” Then Roberts: All of this is true. It should be celebrated.” This gives an idea of ​​what role Orban after an election victory Donald Trumps should take over in Europe. He would once again become a disruptive submarine for the conservative US government in the EU (nytimes.com, January 21.1.2024, XNUMX: Inside the Heritage Foundation's Plans for 'Institutionalizing Trumpism'").

A similarly detailed background report was published on February 1.2.2024, XNUMX by Süddeutsch newspaper; is the author Christian Zaschke, the newspaper's correspondent in New York.  Zaschke first described the chaos in the initial phase of the Trump presidency, after he surprisingly won in 2016 and moved into the White House in 2017 completely unprepared. Zaschke calls this initial phase a social experiment: “Trump not only had no plan. He didn't even know he didn't have a plan, let alone that he needed one. It was as if an eight-year-old, surprised, walked into the world's largest candy store and said, "WoW." Yes Trump has learned from this lesson and Zaschke writes: “In 2024 everything will be different. Trump “Not only has he gained experience in the political operation, he has, far more importantly, hired people who know how to run a campaign.”  

In this context also refers Christian Zaschke on the “Project 2025” of Heritage Foundation and the goal Trumpism to institutionalize; This means “radically restructuring the state structures” with the result: “The second presidency (Trump's) would in any case have much more severe consequences than the first.” Also Zaschke mentions the replacement of staff, which goes far beyond what has previously happened after a change of government. Typically, around 4 senior civil servants in Washington have been replaced so far. This number would be determined by the “Project 2025” increase significantly. The Heritage Foundation prepares lists with up to 20 names. Trump wants to set up a “truth commission” to help with this. (You will be registered at this institution Orwell's "1984" remind).

With a view to a possible second presidency Trumps provides Zaschke states: “The country was damaged by his first presidency, but survived unscathed, although there was certainly “some change.” (sueddeutsche.de, 1.2.2024: "Trump's election campaign:  Be afraid").

If you think about the one from Trump fueled storm on the Capitol on January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX, this conclusion is formulated quite undramatically.

 

Who cares...?

On February 6.2.2024, XNUMX he wrote NYT columnist Thomas L Friedman something like a song of mourning and lamentation for the beginning of the end of the United States' global reputation. “Remember this week, folks – because historians surely will,” he calls out to his compatriots: “Folks, remember this week – the historians will certainly do so.” Friedman describes the terrible spectacle that is being played out in the US Congress - primarily due to the Republicans. (It is part of the “American Tragedy”). It's about the $118,3 billion compromise package from a group of Democratic and Republican senators, whose adoption ties the Gordian knot of aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel as well as the project “Repairing Our Failed Immigration System.” should be penetrated. 

Friedman laments the state of the Republican Party, "which has lost its way and is marching in lockstep behind a man whose philosophy is not America First but "Donald Trump “First” is called. “Trump First” means that a bill that would strengthen America and its allies is set aside so that America can continue to be polarized. Vladimir Putin may triumph in Ukraine and our southern border may remain an open wound - until and unless Trump will be president again. Our allies be damned. May our enemies be encouraged. The future and safety of our children may be mortgaged... Today's sticker on the fender of the GOP reads: “Trump First.  Putin second. America Third.” – “Trump at first".  “Putin second.” “America Third.”

The journalist who traveled around the world Friedman takes especially Mike Johnson, the republican one Speakers of the House into responsibility.  Johnson will play a major role if the Senate's compromise package fails in the House of Representatives. Friedman questions and doubts the ability Johnson's, worldwide to think: “I wonder how often he uses his passport. I wonder if he even has a passport. He is one of the most powerful men in America, following in the footsteps of those Republican and Democratic speakers who have advanced our global interests and strengthened us for decades. So far, it seems all he cares about is Trumps interests, even if that means playing an extremely risky foreign policy game.”

Friedman predicts a dark future for America: “Our friends in Europe, the Middle East and Asia sense that we have fallen into hibernation and they will start making deals - the European allies with Putin, the Arab allies with Iran, the Asian allies with China. We will not feel these changes overnight, but we will feel them over time should we not pass the bill or something similar.” (nytimes.com, February 6.2.2024, XNUMX: “The GOP Bumper Sticker:  Trump First.  Putin Second. “America Third”).  

There is a small glimmer of hope in the last subjunctive sentence: If the bill is passed, it could Friedman can the future scenario described be avoided again – or just postponed? If not, then grace to God Ukraine.

A former close associate Trump, his former national security advisor and one of the “hawks” in the cabinet, John Bolton, also sends a clear warning to his fellow citizens, Trump not to choose again. Bolton was in office for 17 months and finally gave up.

In a new edition of his memoirs entitled “The Room where it Happened,” he quotes the promise that Trump gave his supporters last year: “I am your warrior. I am your judge and I am the retribution for all those who have been wronged and deceived." At that time resigned Trump If he is elected, he will appoint a special investigator to investigate Hunter biden (the president's son) and his family. John Bolton writes: “Trump "It's really just about retaliation for himself and that will take up a lot of the second term." Maggie Haberman, a long-standing one NYT journalist, can Trump already observed journalistically during his time in New York Bolton's Statement, the advisor Trumps were concerned about his announcement of retaliation. These could repel swing voters. Also Trump has since tried to tone down this announcement. (In my opinion, all the plans for restructuring the executive branch and for the future weakening of legal protection for employees in the administration can also be classified under the keywords “revenge” and “retaliation”).

John Bolton states succinctly in a new section of his book, Trump was “unsuitable for the office of president (nytimes.com, February 5.2.2024, XNUMX: “The Retribution Presidency”).

Another former close associate Trump, his former vice president Mike Pence said after the charges against were announced Trump in August 2023: “Today’s indictment is an important reminder: Anyone who puts themselves above the Constitution should never be President of the United States.”  (sueddeutsche.de, August 2.8.2023, XNUMX: “Anyone who puts themselves above the Constitution should never be President of the United States”).

Zu Friedmans, Boltons and Pences The reports about an election event fit with warning statements Trumps on 10.2.2024/XNUMX/XNUMX in Conway, South Carolina, which have also found a critical response in Europe. Trump told his fans in a conversational tone what he explained to NATO allies during his first term in office - i.e. between 2017 and 2021 -: With a view to the countries that did not pay the alliance what they were obliged to, he would "encourage" Russia, to do whatever it may.” Trump his speech in Conway with an anecdote about how he answered the president of “a big country” when he asked him whether his country would be protected if Russia attacked if it didn’t pay: “No, I wouldn’t protect you. I would even encourage them (the Russians) to do whatever the hell they want to do. You have to pay. You have to pay your bill”  (nytimes.com, 10.2.2024:   “Trump Says He Gave NATO Allies Warning: Pay In or He'd Urge Russian Aggression).

The Süddeutsche Zeitung examined in their report on this speech what such suggestions might mean, if Trump wins the election and comes to the conclusion: “If a country does not pay its defense spending, the US should not defend it, in the words of the ex-president – ​​and should even encourage Russia to aggression.” 

The SZ quoted an argument from the Republicans that has been heard again and again: Tax money should not be spent on protecting other countries - such as Ukraine - but on protecting its own borders. The White House spokesman agreed Trumps Statement: “Encouraging attacks by a murderous regime on one of our closest allies is outrageous and completely insane.”  (sueddeutsche.de, 11.2.2024: "Trump would not protect defaulting NATO members from Russia).   

Whether the story actually happened as it did Trump it in Conway told is secondary. The fact that he told them shows that he sees the NATO defense alliance like a commercial enterprise: whoever pays gets goods; If you don't pay, you don't get the goods. This logic is disastrous for a country like Ukraine. Ukraine has not paid NATO, is not even a member, and therefore not a business partner. With such an approach, political or even geo-strategic aspects play no role.

Filmed on March 19.3.2024, XNUMX Trump another pirouette around the interpretation of the mutual alliance obligation according to the NATO treaty. The “extradition” of what he considers to be a defaulting alliance partner to Put he said in an interview with the BREXIT supporter Nigel Farage for a British news channel, but promised that if he returned to the White House, the US would not leave the military alliance - as long as Europe played "fairly" and did its part. On closer inspection, he has the essential content of his Conway speech of February 10.2.2024, XNUMX repeated in other words: “European countries must not take advantage of American support. The United States should pay its fair share, not everyone else's." One should not forget that NATO is more important for Europe than for the USA, because there is "a beautiful, big, beautiful ocean between the USA and" some problems " in Europe. There is no doubt that NATO is an important protective umbrella for Europe. But Trump seems to overlook the fact that the alliance was initiated by the United States for its own geo-strategic interests. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had after the Trump's Conway speech "Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines our overall security, including that of the United States, and increases the risk to American and European soldiers."  sueddeutsche.de, October 19.3.2024, XNUMX: “Trump is committed to NATO – at least partially”).

He has not changed his basic idea about NATO. NATO is primarily not a mutual defense alliance but a trading company in which only those who pay for them receive “goods”. The fact that the Europeans are now also accepting the financial part of the alliance is clear, not least from German defense spending.       

Such and similar statements Trumps raise the concerns of many Americans about the “state of the nation,” particularly the future of the nation. Across party lines, many Americans view the state of the country as poor. But ideas about what to do are often miles apart. A rift is running through society and each side demands different solutions. Political compromises have become rare. More often, an abyss of mistrust and even hatred separates the parties. 

This shows a problem with democratically and socially constituted constitutional states that the two authors of the book “How Democracies Die” – Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt - have addressed: It is possible for autocrats to use democratic means to change the democratic foundations and structures of the state and society in such a way - for example by abolishing control bodies and control mechanisms, by dismantling the rights of the opposition, by bringing the judiciary into line and through intimidation the press and critical civil society - that after some time the democratic structures will collapse without the general public first recognizing the dangers of the changes. 

The critical elites and parts of the media in America also see such dangers Trump - from his point of view, not without reason - ridiculed and hated. Critical journalists are for Trump and the MAGA movement the “enemies of the people”. That itself Donald Trump After a possible re-election, will adhere to democratic principles or the rules of decent behavior and protect and defend the constitutional state is extremely doubtful based on previous experiences. And not all voters have this too Levitsky and Ziblatt established - can or want to fully assess the long-term effects of their voting decision that go beyond current events. This is not an insult to voters, but rather marks one of the foundations of representative democracy: Voters must be able to rely on the officials and elected officials to comply with the requirements of the constitution to which they swore an oath: For the good of the respective people...

 

What if … Trump is not elected?   

What if …? In the previous chapters I have described the concerns and fears of many Americans Donald Trump win the presidential election on November 5.11.2024, XNUMX. Given the experiences of his first term in office, if the political and civil society structures of the United States were strong enough, another four years Trump endure? What impact would it have for America and the democratic world to see leadership power tipped over or retreating into isolation? Would Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt Write a sequel to your book “How Democracies Die” about it? All of this was about the question: What happens if Trump wins the election?

But the experiences after he lost in 2020 - especially what happened on January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX - also raise concerns and fears if Trump loses the election on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX. Trump and many of his party colleagues and supporters are still talking about a “stolen election”. Trump did this, for example, at an event on March 16.3.2024, XNUMX Vandalia, Ohio where he described those now imprisoned for their involvement in the storming of the Capitol as “hostages” and “incredible patriots.” (nytimes.com, October 16.3.2024, XNUMX: “Trump Says Some Migrants are “Not People” and Predicts a ‘Blood Bath’ if he loses”). Contrary to many court decisions to the contrary, he did not admit the defeat of 2020, let alone accept it. (I will return to this “bloodbath speech” elsewhere). In advance of the Caucus meetings In Iowa he also talked about election fraud – as a precautionary measure, so to speak. After he won Iowa, he didn't bring up that keyword anymore because: If Trump wins, the election was fine. But if Trump loses – like in 2020 – in his opinion there must have been fraud involved. Trump will most likely bring this keyword back into play “as a precautionary measure” before November 5.11.2024th, 16.3.2024 - and in fact, he did it on March XNUMXth, XNUMX Vandalia, Ohio.

Organized a strange egg dance on this topic Kevin B Robert, the president of the Heritage Foundation in the interview with the already presented New York Times. When asked directly: “Do you believe that President Biden won the 2020 election?” replied Roberts with a flat “no”. When the interviewer subsequently asked her to give reasons for this, she spoke Roberts about Hinz and Kunz: “I think there are ambiguities. I don't know what the outcome was but that's why I can't say "yes" definitively. I am certainly not a conspiracy theorist, as some members of the Election Integrity Watch on the right can attest. There is still a lot of uncertainty in two counties in Arizona, in numerous counties in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Is it possible he won? Certainly. But can I say for sure that he won? "No". After everything I said very loudly towards the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021 based on the state of knowledge at the time, the election had to be confirmed. “And so let's move on” – “and therefore, let's move on”. 

The interviewer pointed out that all the small pieces of evidence showed that there was no substantial fraud in the 2020 election. On it Roberts: We have at the Heritage a database that shows fraud in many cases. But I'm not saying that the examples in the database prove that Biden didn't win. I'm not sure he won" (nytimes.com, January 21.1.2024, XNUMX: "Inside the Heritage Foundation's Plans for 'Institutionalizing Trumpism'").

After all these statements from Kevin D Roberts one has to realize that he said nothing in many words. From Trump One can expect similar hints about the keyword “election fraud” before the election date - and in fact he has now done so. But other than vague talk could Trump after a defeat, plan something worse again. He talked about that - he should be in Colorado are not admitted to the primaries, or are convicted in the criminal proceedings for attempting to overturn the 2020 election results – violence could break out in the country. Trump spoke of “big, big trouble” and a “madhouse in the country.” In a report by New York Times It is noted that although there is a disastrous language Trump is nothing new, as he has publicly called for political opponents to be imprisoned, the Constitution to be suspended, and he has also suggested executing America's top military leaders. However – that’s what it says NYT states, “the latest statements have particular significance because they relate to legal proceedings involving his role in the storming of the Capitol on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX (nytimes.com, 10.1.2024: “Trump Has Suggested Violence Could Erupt if Court Cases Do Not Go His Way”).

Trump appears to be picking up in 2024 where it left off in 2020/21. America is once again in danger from a man who wants to become president and is therefore obliged to protect the Constitution. Listen and look up Donald Trump, So the country seems to be facing difficult times, regardless of whether Trump on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX wins or loses. Describes with this view from the outside Peter Burghardt in a comment in the Süddeutsche Zeitung the unworthy spectacle, that Trump and show the Republicans to the world. Trump seems to be afraid of nothing. Only Nikki Haley tried for a long time to hold the position. "But Trump has escaped,” writes Burghardt, because he puts on a show, because he squanders a lot of money and is better organized than he used to be. Because his trials, in which he portrays himself as a victim of justice, have benefited him so far - and because, at least publicly, he is not afraid of anything, but apparently everyone in his party is afraid of him. Haley didn't even dare. Naming slavery as the most important cause of the Civil War from 1861 to 1865 - probably out of fear of alienating the reactionary base.

Peter Burghardt writes of the “pathetic role of the Republicans: “Trump has largely subjugated the Republicans, and there was no shortage of warnings. The country is sleepwalking into dictatorship, they say Liz Cheney. The former MP supported the second impeachment against Trump. Later she was vice-chairman of the committee Trumps Contribution to the conspiracy dissected. What did the party do? As punishment, she ensured that the rebel was thrown out of parliament” (sueddeutsche.de, January 24.1.2024, XNUMX: “A lot can still happen between now and election day”; Comment from Peter Burghardt).

Describes another aspect of this spectacle Carl Hulse, a veteran journalist New York Times. The political mess that is... MAGA faction the Republicans have staged in the House of Representatives since the beginning of the new legislative period - the rise and fall of the House of Representatives should be remembered Speakers Kevin McCarthy and the legislative standstill, because the Republicans only succeeded after a laborious search Mike Johnson to the successor of McCarthy to vote – has now also made its way to the Senate. “The august Senate, at least on the Republican side, is becoming more and more like the chaotic counterpart (of the House of Representatives) on the other side of the Rotunda,” writes Hulse. “The members of the Senate have always proudly described themselves as being different from the House of Representatives, but that can no longer be said at present.” The Republican Senator Mike Brown from Indiana said on February 7.2.2024, XNUMX Fox Business Network: “We have now reached critical mass in the Senate ... now we are enough and we are recruiting others to join us. It gives a different dynamic.” 

What this means describes Carl Hulse like this: “Like the far-right group in the House of Representatives, the right wing in the Senate is made up of ideological purists who only represent what they want and are not interested in the traditional legislative horse-trading that defines the Senate. Their primary goal is to stop legislation they don’t like — even if their own Republican colleagues helped make it happen.” Hulse describes what it means for them MAGA Republican The term “compromise” has become a non-word. 

A current example of this is or was the compromise with which a group of Democratic and Republican senators managed, after months of intensive negotiations, to tie together migration and border policy and support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan into a legislative package worth $118 billion . The approval of the entire Senate became questionable when Donald Trump and his supporters fired on all cylinders at the migration part of the compromise. The Republican Senator James Lankford from Oklahoma, who was instrumental in the negotiations that lasted more than four months, described the slow death of the compromise as follows: "I feel like someone standing in the middle of a field in a thunderstorm, holding up a metal rod." 

On February 7.2.2024, 50, the package failed in the Senate with 49 “yes” and 60 “no” votes. It would have taken XNUMX “yes” votes to override the Republican filibuster, but – how Trump had demanded, the Republicans let the compromise fail because they wanted to force the Democrats to make even greater concessions on migration policy.

“Is the Senate Becoming the House?” – “Will the Senate become the House of Representatives?” – headlined Carl Hulse his report in the NYT, in which he describes the slide in the US Senate - especially the Republican faction. He quotes the Republican senator's statement SuzanneCollins from Maine: “This is not the Senate I am used to serving in...The personal attacks and unwillingness to work together to find a compromise acceptable to all is disappointing. It's very serious. (Sources: nytimes.com, February 7.2.2024, XNUMX: “As His Border Deal Dies, a GOP Senator Laments the Forces Against It”; nytimes.com, February 7.2.2024, XNUMX: “Senate Bogs Down on Ukraine and Israel Aid After GOP Blocks Border Deal”; nytimes.com, February 9.2.2024, XNUMX: “Is the Senate Becoming the House?”).

 

Senator's Plan B Chuck Schumer

It is well known that politics often means drilling thick boards. Last but not least, this means getting up after a defeat and moving on. Donald Trump had used external maneuvers to bring the Republican members of the Senate along his line when voting on the compromise package. Chuck Schumer, The Democratic majority leader in the Senate then pulled out a plan B, giving Republican foreign policy makers the opportunity to agree to continued support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Early in the morning of February 13.2.2024, 70, the Senate voted 29-95 for a foreign aid package worth $60,1 billion, including $22 billion for Ukraine. Along with almost all Democratic senators, XNUMX Republicans also voted for the bill, including Mitch McConnell, the speaker of the Republican minority in the Senate. This meant they were able to overcome the filibuster required votes clearly exceeded. The Republican opponents of the bill had argued that the rising number of immigrants at the US southern border must first be stopped before other countries are helped in the fight for their sovereignty. This ranking would be fatal for Ukraine.

But future US support for Ukraine is far from over. The House of Representatives also has to agree, with its narrow Republican majority, but in which there is a loud right-wing and Trump devoted group is in charge. However, it was and is open, as is the case for those who are inexperienced in foreign policy Trump fixed speakers of the house Mike Johnson, will tactic. He has the power to decide what is voted on in the plenary session of the House of Representatives. The southpaws in House will do everything in their power to prevent a vote on the Senate's compromise package (and in fact this has not yet happened as of today - April 10.4.2024, XNUMX). (nytimes.com, February 12/13.2.2024, XNUMX: “Senate Passes Aid to Ukraine, but Fate Is Uncertain in a Hostile House”).

This process makes it clear that Europe must – should Trump will be re-elected on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX - cause serious concerns about the security of the free part of Europe. On the one hand, there is the expected renewed economic policy debate with the new one Trump administration. He would pick up where he left off in 2021: the EU is a competitor to on the global market MAGA America and Trump would combat exports from the EU with tariffs and other trade barriers. 

But in addition to this wrangling in the area of ​​economic policy, attitudes towards Russia that are difficult to explain have developed among Republicans in recent years. Trump's Putin affinity is not new. Remember his meeting with the Kremlin boss on July 16.7.2018, XNUMX in Helsinki, when he made the statement Putin's, not intervening in the 2016 American election campaign over the findings of its own secret services. Trump effect Putin praised in the past as a strong and wise statesman; probably based on the admiration he has repeatedly expressed for autocrats in all sorts of countries. In addition, in recent years, attitudes have developed in parts of the Republican Party that seem incomprehensible, even absurd, to most Europeans. The edition wrote about it on March 1.3.2024, XNUMX "The Morning" of New York Times:  “Large parts of the Republican Party deal with it Vladimir Putin as if he were an ideological ally. In contrast, he still treats the US as an enemy.” The NYT describes the Republicans' idea as extremely unusual and sometimes confusing. Trump and many other Republicans seem to have an ideological sympathy for - which is difficult to understand Putin's to feel right-wing authoritarian nationalism. They apparently divide the world into a liberal left and an illiberal right, whereby they and Putin - together with the Hungarian Viktor Orban and some others (e.g. Erdogan) assign to the second group.

The special meaning that Viktor Orban I have described several times what is important in this “new world view” of the American Republicans. Should Trump would win the election Orban for him to join the ranks of the most important heads of government in Europe. Budapest would then become an important outpost for the USA when it comes to weakening the EU.    

“However this can be explained,” she said New York Times “This threatens the decades-long bipartisan consensus on U.S. national security.” Republicans in the House of Representatives have been blocking further aid to Ukraine for a long time, regardless of the fact that, according to military experts, Russia is “taking over” more areas of the country. becomes. If Trump wins a second term in office, he has already indicated that he will question or even terminate NATO alliance commitments. The extreme right wing of the GOP the House of Representatives now even has the language Putin's adopted. Marjorie Taylor Greene from Georgia has accused Ukraine of maintaining “a Nazi army.” The Republican Senator My Romney from Utah countered such and similar statements from his party: “If your position is applauded Putin's receives, it is time to reconsider this position” (nytimes.com, March 1.3.2024, XNUMX; The Morning: “Enemy or ally?”).

Auch Joe Biden has the strangest ideas in his State of the Nation speech on March 7.3.2024, XNUMX Trumps and other Republicans strongly criticized: “If there is anyone in this room who believes Putin will stop with Ukraine, I can assure you, he will not stop.” Trump had during the speech Bidens the following text is added: “Putin attacked Ukraine only because he had no respect for it Biden has" (nytimes.com, March 7/8.3.2024, XNUMX: “Offering a Choice of 'Revenge' vs. 'Decency', Biden Strikes a Contrast With Trump").

(Is this poor statement Trumps Is it simply due to the election campaign or does it show how little he knows about it? Putin's way of thinking?).

 

When assessing future developments in the Ukraine war, there are overlaps - with a view to a possible second term in office Trumps – the concerns of many Americans coincide with those of Europeans. Elsewhere in this paper I wrote that US international credibility is at stake here. Looking at Ukraine, it seems as if some Americans are moving in a different world that becomes more and more wonderful the less we know about the potentates elsewhere and the less we care about them. Should Trump Lose, the USA and Europe would have “got away” again. But the successors Trumps are already in the starting blocks to further advance their “warlock’s” agenda at the next opportunity. The GOP had the chance to express himself several times Trump and MAGA to solve. She let this chance pass, especially after January 6.1.2021, XNUMX, when she Trump allowed the incitement of the storming of the Capitol to pass.     

 

What if….? The concerns of Europeans

That an election victory Donald Trumps America and American society would divide even more deeply, may worry many a friend and admirer of the USA. I think back to my time as an exchange student in the USA, when I grew to love the country and the people there, and I am saddened by how the country and society have changed. What a confusing picture the country presents to the world in which the likely presidential candidate of a venerable party makes the audience rise from their seats at his rallies to honor legally convicted violators  (sueddeutsche.de, March 22.3.2024, XNUMX: “Powerful words”).

Coming to Europe – with and without Trump – there are major economic and security challenges, especially due to the Russian attack on Ukraine. The statements Trumps on 10.2.2024/XNUMX/XNUMX in Conway, South Carolina on NATO and European security have alarmed Europe. There is a danger that in the most powerful country in the world a man will become president who conducts world politics like a commercial transaction and who, if he cannot get his way, swears revenge. Would partnership-based politics on an equal footing be even possible with a president who basically doesn't care about the safety of others? What should I do?          

During the first Trump Presidency the French President has Emmanuel Macron gave several keynote speeches about the future of Europe and, among other things, threw the keyword “European sovereignty” into the debate. He received a lot of criticism for this and as Joe Biden was elected president and the USA returned to the world political stage, such debates no longer seemed necessary. But now it is too Donald Trump back again and is putting pressure on NATO allies with the same statements with which he resigned four years ago. “Pay or die,” is the headline above a report by the Süddeutsche Zeitung. 

Some comments raise the question of whether Trump has not done a service to European security by pushing for more money.  Katrin Pribyl writes in a comment in the Heilbronn voice: “His recent drivel shows ignorance and ignorance. But he still raises a sore yet true point among Europeans when it comes to money. Security comes at a price and many countries on the continent were not prepared to pay it…” (Heilbronn voice, 15.2.2024;  Katrin Pribyl: “New Priorities”).

It is undoubtedly true that in Europe - and not only there - defense spending was increasingly reduced after the end of the Cold War. The threat level decreased and the need for the military decreased. This has changed fundamentally since Russia's attack on Ukraine on February 24.2.2022, XNUMX. The German Chancellor spoke of a turning point. However, it is also true that the U-turn and driving in the opposite direction takes time to implement, not only politically but also practically.

The “drivel” Donald Trumps, like Katrin Pribyl swrites, has several addressees. It was primarily part of the Trump campaign and thus addressed to his fans. It has the side effect of shocking the Europeans once again Trump probably accepted. During the election campaign, it is important to talk about money that can possibly be saved Trumps Certainly well received by supporters. But was it really just about the money? I doubt that Trump has dealt with the far-reaching and complex connections. Pribyls reference to Trumps Ignorance and ignorance are certainly justified. Which responsible politician threatens his allies – even during the election campaign – to “hand them over” to their common enemy?

What has Trump – should he be elected – with NATO actually ahead? One of his constant themes during his time in office was to accuse others of living at the expense of the United States, not only economically but also militarily. His plan for a new term could be like this Anne Applebaum succinctly described: “Will Donald Trump “If re-elected, he will end US NATO membership.” ( republic.ch, February 5.2.2024, XNUMX: “The end of the world as we know it”).

"Trump directly demands the surrender of Europe Putin,” said the Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kierwinski, Und Donald Tusk, The new Polish Prime Minister called for “we have to wake up Europe’s politicians and societies.” What is needed is a common defense policy. “These statements are irresponsible and even playful Putin into our hands,” said the Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier about the Trump statement. The series of such and similar quotations can easily be continued (sueddeutsche.de, February 12.2.2024, XNUMX: “There is no alternative to NATO”).

Fabian Fellmann, the correspondent of Süddeutsche Zeitung in Washington, addresses other aspects beyond financial aspects Trumps Scold the allies:  “Trump’s But the real message is that under his leadership the USA would provide less aid abroad,” and Fellman refers to Nikki Haley and a few Republicans who Trumps Statement about NATO contradicted, “because it questions the security architecture in Europe more than ever before.” And finally quoted Fellman John Bolton, Trump's former security advisor who warns of a real threat with dramatic consequences: “People have to Donald Trump take seriously when he says he wants to leave NATO... With a few sentences during a campaign speech in South Carolina and has 691 characters on his social network Donald Trump At the weekend we simply questioned the global security architecture since the Second World War.” (sueddeutsche.de, February 12.2.2024, XNUMX: “Pay or die”). 

Zu Trumps NATO statement concludes with a quote from a Tour d'Horizon of the renowned SZ journalists Stephen Cornelius: “The USA has been struggling with its role in the world for a good 20 years – sometimes short-sighted, muscular under the presidency George W. Bush, sometimes disinterestedly gentle as under Barack Obama, sometimes unpredictable as below Donald Trump. Now it is Joe Biden, who got his foreign policy stamp during the Cold War, who wants to revive the classic superpower role of the USA - but cannot act freely because he cannot be caught doing foreign policy at home. The world has become too much for Americans. Donald Trump “Unscrupulously exploits this isolationist gut feeling in the election campaign.”  (sueddeutsche.de, 14.2.2024; Stephen Cornelius:  “Absolutely not okay”).  

In addition to the "shopkeeper's mentality" with which he makes global political decisions, it is his unpredictability, his just-so approach that has once again shocked Europeans and is a cause for serious concern. After Trumps Announcements and everything that one has to infer from them, fear and uncertainty creep in about the possible consequences of an election victory Trumps through the European capitals. “Europe could not currently defend itself in a conventional conflict against Russia without the help of the United States,” states Claudia Major, the defense expert at the German Institute for International Security. It was not without reason that the NATO Secretary General warned Jens Stoltenberg before the damage that has been done: “Any suggestion that the allies are not defending each other undermines the security of all of us, including that of the USA, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk.” Chancellor put it in a similar way Olaf Scholz: "Any relativization of the NATO guarantee of assistance is irresponsible and dangerous and only serves Russia's interest. No one has permission to play with or make deals about Europe's security. We will strengthen NATO for the security of Europe.”

These voices all come from a report by New York Times about the European reactions to the Trump statements. This will be in NYT Report with a view to the US elections boiled down to the following denominator: “Therefore, one word at this year's Munich conference sums up the growing fears of Europeans: “Lose - lose”. European leaders are worried about the unpredictability Trumps and his apparent willingness to come along Putin to negotiate without involving Ukraine or its neighbors.” (nytimes.com, February 14.2.2024, XNUMX: “Europe Wants to Stand on It's Own Military. “Is It Too Little, Too Late?”).

Elections will take place in America on November 5.11.2024th, 16. By then it will be too late to develop fundamentally new European security plans. It is therefore about pragmatic approaches for individual areas. The Vice President from the USA attended the Munich Security Conference from February 18.2.2024th to XNUMXth, XNUMX Kamala Harris and foreign minister Antony blinken arrived. They were faced with the unenviable task of reassuring their allies and convincing them of the USA's loyalty to the alliance. But how long do such assurances last? The question – that’s what she wrote New York Times before the start of the conference - How neo-isolationism in the USA was able to displace internationalism will likely be a main topic at the Munich Security Conference. 

Kamala Harris did what she could. She assured Europe that the US would continue to fulfill its NATO commitments. The alliance obligation enshrined in Article 5 of the NATO treaty, according to which an armed attack on one member of the alliance is viewed as an attack on all, is “iron” and “sacred” for them and the US President Joe Biden The name Donald Trump didn't name her. With his election campaign statements, he raised doubts about this crucial point and downgraded Article 5 of the treaty to something like a selective obligation: only those who have paid will be defended by the USA. Of course, there are voices that advocate that the USA should isolate itself and turn away from its allies. “This view of the world is dangerous, destabilizing and short-sighted... America cannot retreat, we must fight for democracy and for our allies.”

Regarding the current news that Alexei Navalny died in a Siberian prison camp Harris what may have been going through many people's minds: "Whatever story they tell, let us be clear: Russia is responsible." (sueddeutsche.de, February 16.2.2024, XNUMX: “America cannot withdraw”).    

A number of questions could Kamala Harris of course not answer:

• Will the Republicans in the House of Representatives get their act together and agree to further aid for Ukraine);

(The prospects are not rosy. Today, April 10.4.2024, XNUMX, too House not yet agreed).

• How will the election on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX turn out?
• What would happen should happen Trump win the election?

 

In a report by Süddeutsche Zeitung on October 5.10.2023th, XNUMX the question is asked: “What is the EU actually doing to prepare for the possible return of Donald Trump to prepare for the White House?" One of the answers to this question is: "Lord, let this cup pass from us." An EU diplomat sounds absolutely skeptical: "If Trump When it comes again, we know it will be difficult. But this is only discussed in passing.” A detailed, extensive discussion about the political and economic consequences of a victory Trumps  for the EU is not taking place. Planning what a coordinated European response should look like in an emergency should it occur in November? Doesn't exist (sueddeutsche.de, October 5.10.2023, XNUMX: “Back to the Future”).

This SZ report is now almost 6 months old. Warnings and the description of the possible consequences of a second Trump Presidency There are now plenty of them – as shown above:

• There is growing concern in the German economy that... Donald Trump is re-elected. That would “not only pose major problems for Europe” (sueddeutsche.de, December 28.12.2023, XNUMX: “Industry President warns of Trump comeback”).
• Without much ado, Berlin is currently trying to make new contacts in the USA in order to make a comeback Trumps To be able to find advocates in Washington (sueddeutsche.de, January 18.1.2024, XNUMX: “Just to be on the safe side”).
• “Trump two” will be different from “Trump one.” He had a lot of time to think. And this time he has enough loyalty around him to take on top positions. “Trump one.” was stymied because he didn't know Washington. That won't help this time. This time we will Trump and have a bunch of fascists running the American government from day one. (sueddeutsche.de, October 19.1.2024, XNUMX: “Trump two will be different than Trump one”).
• Whoever is President of the USA has global influence - but we have to free ourselves from that, demanded the Federal Minister of Finance Christian Lindner at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2024. “We talk too much about Donald Trump in Europe.” The continent must do its homework. Europe's defense and Europe's economy must be positioned in such a way that the continent can help itself and does not have to call for support. “Then it doesn’t matter who the US administration is.” (sueddeutsche.de, October 19.1.2024, XNUMX: “Lindner presents his Trump plan”).

(That sounds good in principle if the US election weren't already on November 5.11.2024th, XNUMX. What would Europe do if a new president were to have it? Trump cancel the NATO treaty a few days after taking office?).

• “Should the US under a president Trump abandoning Ukraine and arbitrariness Putin's If they wanted to extradite him, the Europeans would hardly be able to prevent it. Even if Trump If NATO were not destroyed immediately, its deterrent power would suffer massively. The violent imperialist Vladimir Putin would feel almost invited... Whoever is on Trump If you want to prepare, you will have to think about what that means for the budget and the debt brake. This applies to chancellors scholz, Minister of Finance Christian Lindner and everyone in the traffic lights. And for the opposition leader Friedrich Merz as well" (sueddeutsche.de, January 15.1.2024, XNUMX: “And there is no escape”; Comment from Daniel Brossler).

 

 

The Federal Chancellor’s pragmatic approaches – excerpts from an interview with SZ by 14.2.2024

Assessment of the situation:

In any case, we should not hope for a more peaceful Russia in the foreseeable future. Putin's Russia harbors imperial dreams that Europe must protect itself from. Security in the world can actually only be guaranteed together, that is the insight from the 20th century - and it remains correct in principle. However, it only works as long as no one pursues their own plans of conquest.

 

Why we support Ukraine:

We support Ukraine because it also increases our security. At the same time, we will not let there be a war between NATO and Russia. And we are coordinating very closely with our allies, especially the USA. Most Germans understand that we have to spend more money on our defense in the long term.

 

Could Europe bear the burden alone if the US withdraws?

Without US help it would be very difficult. The USA is a major military power with the largest defense budget in the world. Germany is up for it Helmut Schmidt to say, a middle power. Nevertheless, we have earmarked more than seven billion euros in arms aid for Ukraine this year alone, with another six billion euros to come in the coming years. Poland, Denmark and the Netherlands are also doing a lot in this direction. Overall, however, there is still too little in Europe. My appeal to the other EU states is therefore clear: see whether you can also increase your aid to Ukraine.

 

What if…? Has Donald Trump Is it right that the Europeans are free riders who let the USA pay for their security?

No, because he completely ignores what has connected the North Atlantic Alliance for three quarters of a century: we are liberal democracies, constitutional states and social market economies. We follow common principles, have a similar view of the world and put people at the center of our politics. Through NATO, the superpower USA has simultaneously gained influence in Europe and guaranteed security. It is right and important that all NATO partners do their part to ensure that the alliance is as strong as possible - that is why the two percent target exists...

NATO's nuclear protective shield is actually not only based on US weapons. And we have a close and ongoing dialogue with our French friends. However, I expressly warn against negligently questioning American protection out of preemptive concern. It's true: transatlantic cooperation is currently closer than it has been for many years.     

 

Would negotiations with Russia be an approach?

Diplomatic efforts have been ongoing for a long time. There were discussions with representatives from all over the world in several rounds in Copenhagen, Jeddah, Malta and Davos. However, simply calling for “negotiations” does not solve the problem. If negotiations mean that Ukraine should simply capitulate, they are pointless. The Russian president invaded the country to take over the country. He has to move away from this goal.  Putin can end the war at any time by giving the order to stop attacks and withdraw troops.

 

The current goal:

We must do everything we can to ensure that the transatlantic cooperation that has protected us for 75 years remains stable. And we should – regardless of the elections in the USA – significantly strengthen the European pillar of NATO.

(Source: sueddeutsche.de, February 16.2.2024, XNUMX: “We want to be so strong that no one attacks us”; Excerpts from an interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung with Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz). 

 

 

Germany becomes a guarantor state for Ukraine

On the basis of a decision at the NATO summit on July 11/12.7.2023, XNUMX in Vilnius, Lithuania, Germany concluded a security agreement with Ukraine on February 16.2.2024, XNUMX. The aim is to strengthen Ukraine's defense capability in the long term. The contract includes, among other things, arms deliveries, the training of Ukrainian soldiers, assistance with reconstruction, mine clearance and the development of a climate-friendly energy infrastructure after the end of the war. Germany is the second country after Great Britain to conclude such an agreement with Ukraine. France will follow. (Sources: sueddeutsche.de, February 16.2.2024, XNUMX: “A comprehensive pact”; Heilbronn voice, February 17.2.2024, XNUMX: “Historical Pact”).

 

European cooperation in defense and armaments issues

On February 17.2.2024, XNUMX, the President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen announced the imminent submission of a strategy paper for a common EU arms and defense policy. She spoke out in favor of having her own EU Commissioner for Defense. The NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg sees Europe on the right track. By 18, 31 of the 2024 NATO countries will meet the goal of spending at least 2 percent of their economic output on defense (handelsblatt.com, February 17.2.2024, XNUMX: “Von der Leyen speaks out for EU Defense Commissioner).

 

And what else?

Based on what has been said so far, it is clear: the concerns of Europeans should be Donald Trump moving into the White House once again goes far beyond the area of ​​foreign and security policy. Donald Trump, them MAGA warlock, managed to steer the Republican Party in a completely different direction within just a few years. There were times when both parties worked to establish free trade agreements and the global division of labor. Both parties no longer pursue this goal. There were also times when the Democrats and at least parts of the Republicans encouraged immigration to a certain extent. Today, Washington is primarily concerned with securing the borders and no longer with giving legal status to those living unregistered in the country. This trend reversal has not just occurred since Trump Presidency began. 

The New York Times quoted Heather A. Conley, the President of the German Marshall Fund in the United States said that over the last 20 years, security experts have talked less and less about the benefits and more and more about the costs of transatlantic cooperation. The American public is also increasingly seeing the conflicting goals of the alliances and less and less their value. However, has Trump significantly changed the focus of the debate. He seriously considered leaving the US from NATO, he actually announced it Paris Climate Agreement, he doesn't believe in the EU and welcomed it BREXIT and cut off American contributions to the UN's affiliated organizations (nytimes.com, 15.2.2024/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Trump's NATO Threat Reflects a Wider Shift on America's Place in the World").

The term was used in the Republican Party RINO (Republican In Name Only) for those who Trump not follow it without reservation, a magic word and a shameful name. Which meaning Trump who has and will have absolute loyalty should he be re-elected, according to a note in the memoirs "Enough" from Cassidy Hutchinson, the employee of the former chief of staff Mark Meadows in the White House. Hutchinson reported that Meadows' The first important project after he took office was “to find the people who need to be fired because they are disloyal to the president, especially those who leak information to the press.” (nytimes.com, February 8.2.2024, XNUMX: “How Mark Meadows Became the Least Trusted Man in Washington”). Cassidy Hutchinson is against in the second impeachment trial Trump with their detailed descriptions of the last few weeks Trump Presidency known. 

peter baker quoted in one NYT report an interesting historical comparison: 

Mr. Trump’s “America First Slogan” reflect what the isolationists proclaimed before World War II; (the group was later disbanded because of their sympathies for Hitler described as too naive towards the Nazis). As one Trump When he pointed out the historical background of his slogan, he shrugged it off and described it as a succinct description of his worldview. As isolationists want to Trump and his MAGA Advisor but cannot be identified. They prefer to portray themselves as nationalists and declare that, given the changes in the world since the end of communism, it is time to rethink America's priorities in the new era. NATO and all the other alliances no longer represented the interests of the United States. 

(But where, except in the conceptual lies for Trump the essential difference between isolationism and nationalism? Maybe it's okay MAGA ideologues primarily just to create a conceptual connection to the Christian nationalists in the evangelical environment. Elsewhere I have described how important evangelicals have become to the Republican Party).

A survey in October 2023 shows serious differences between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to international alliances: Among Democrats, 80 percent believe that the USA benefits from alliances with Europe. Among Republicans, only 50 percent are of this opinion. Among Democrats, 68 percent would support NATO allies such as Lithuania, Estonia or Latvia if they were attacked by Russia. Among Republicans, this is only 48 percent (nytimes.com, October 15.2.2024, XNUMX: “Trump's NATO Threats Reflect a Wider Shift on Amreica's Place in the World")

(These numbers once again illustrate what is at stake for Europe in the American election on November 5.11.2024, XNUMX).

Back to the original question: What if Donald Trump would win the election? In a comment in the Süddeutsche Zeitung appeals the journalist Ann Kathrin Nezik to the German companies, urgently Trump to prepare. She describes what it means to her as follows: “Donald Trump thinks electric cars are ridiculous. He loves combustion engines all the more, just like oil and gas. He wants to protect the US economy from hostile foreign companies with new tariffs. A lot of what Trump to the station at the beginning of February Fox Business about his economic policy plans sounded like a broken record. More climate hostility, more America First, Heard it all before.”

Nezik reports on the great “fear of the wrath of a man who likes to incite his followers against unpopular entrepreneurs”; but believes diplomatic restraint is the wrong path for the German economy. The very least is a plan: “We react when Trump but becomes president again? What can German companies counter his anti-climate and protectionist agenda? (sueddeutsche.de, February 14.2.2204, XNUMX: “German companies urgently need to... Trump prepare"; Comment from Ann Kathrin Nezik").

Quoted in the accompanying report Ann Kathrin Nezik different statements. Stefan Simon, Deutsche Bank's board of directors for U.S. business says it won't have much of an impact who is elected to the White House in November. Warns against this Christoph Schemionek, the head of the German business delegation in Washington before the intention Trump, Wanting to impose tariffs of 10 percent on all foreign imports: “That would not only be a serious problem for German companies, because many have to import machine parts, for example, for their production in the USA. American companies that rely on imports would also be affected.”

Schemionek  uses the keyword “workforce” and also criticizes economic policy Joe Bidens. “German companies (in the USA) are desperately looking for workers.” Some would like to employ those immigrants who have come into the country over the border from Mexico in more than just the past few months. But most of them do not receive a work permit even after months or even years - that is what is politically desired.

At the end of Nezik report There is a strange assumption: “Perhaps the German companies in the USA simply have an attitude Trump used to it, like a crazy uncle who has been blustering around at family gatherings for years. They know what sayings to expect from him and hope that he doesn't mean all of them seriously." (sueddeutsche.de, February 13.2.2024, XNUMX: “Who is afraid of Donald Trump?”).

(That would be too much hope and too little preparation for a possible one Trump Presidency).

That Donald Trump He showed that he doesn't think much of climate protection and climate policy when he left the country in 2017 Paris climate agreement exited. president Joe Biden revised this on the day he took office, January 20.1.2021, XNUMX, and signed the US re-entry. Becomes Trump resign if elected? A report from The Washington Post from the UN Climate Change Conference COP28 in December 2023 in Dubai doesn't bode well. GGeorge David Banks, Trump's climate advisor, was with a group of Republicans Dubai traveled and suggested that there would be a “seismic shift” in U.S. international climate policy. Banks said in an interview that Trump will use a second term in office to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement. “I guess,” like this Banks, “that the executive order is already written.” (washingtonpost.com, December 11.12.2023, XNUMX: “Speaker of second Trump  “term looms over global climate talks”).

Also in the election campaign Trump already strong sentiment against the one from the Biden administration pursued climate policy. Which passed in 2022 with all the votes of the Democrats in Congress Inflation Reduction Act, through which climate protection measures are promoted on a large scale, should be abolished either completely or on a large scale. The law brought tax reductions for the purchase of electric vehicles, enabled the rapid designation of locations for charging stations and the expansion of wind turbines, as well as tax breaks for the installation of heat pumps and other energy-saving devices. Frank Pallone Jr., A leading Democratic member of the House of Representatives said: “We have to win the presidency and both chambers, otherwise everything is on the chopping block.” A key goal of the law is that by 2030, half of all vehicles sold will be electric cars. Trump repeatedly attacks the essential parts of the law and in doing so exploits common public prejudices, such as that the tax breaks for electric cars serve to enable “rich people” to buy “luxury electric cars”. Furthermore, their range is short, they are too expensive and the batteries are made in China.

It becomes a fact Trump However, in the event of an election victory, it will be difficult Inflation Reduction Act to snip. Since it took effect, more than half of the major projects announced and 67 percent of the jobs associated with them are in Republican-controlled districts. “The Republican extremists in Congress would damage their own economy if they wanted to Inflation Reduction Act cancel,” said Michael Kikukawa, a White House spokesman (nytimes.com, February 19.2.2024, XNUMX: “Republican Attacks on Biden's Climate Law Raise Concerns Ahead of Election”).

(I intentionally presented the internal American disputes over climate policy in the “Concerns of Europeans” section, because “climate change does not stop at national borders” has become a truism. Should the USA, one of the world's biggest “climate sinners”, reduce its efforts or... If we even stopped, this would have a catastrophic effect on the global climate).

 

Europe – What to do?

 

In a recent one in the Süddeutsche Zeitung The two political scientists took part in the printed interview Carlo Masala and Herfried Münkler on a big one Tour d'Horizon, in the course of which she also possible re-election Donald Trump's addressed. Already said in the opening round Carlo Marsala, “that we are in the middle of the struggle for a new alternative world order and the relative power of the USA is declining dramatically…. That's why I expect in the event of the election Trump, that the end of the West as the world's most important regulatory power is rapidly accelerating. I don’t have it any smaller,” he added.

 

To describe the extensive interview in detail would be beyond the scope of this paper. The statements in connection with the upcoming US elections are noteworthy:

 

Question: Would an election victory Trumps really the US withdrawal from this war

             (Ukraine) mean?

 

Answer Marsala:  In my opinion, the Republicans in the Senate are still more in favor of them

             support for Ukraine in Congress Trump the republicans

             But MPs are already firmly under control. Whether he will be able to do this in the long term is another matter

             Ask. But the situation is also that money is currently tight in the US budget

             is. In addition, even if Trump has recently been contradictory to Ukraine

             has expressed: His advisors are very decidedly against further military action

             Support for Ukraine.

 

Answer Münkler:  The old Republican Party was more of a broad-based party

            international politics and foreign policy. The new one prioritizes

            domestic political considerations. Not to mention that in the event of one

            election victory of Trump would then have to deal internationally with three quasi-autocracies:

            Russia, China and the USA. Europe would then be the last liberal democratic one

            Do it with constitutional ties. At least if the American one

            Rule of Law Trump couldn't take it anymore this time.

 

Question: Why is Russia willing to wage this war despite all its losses?

 

Answer Marsala:  We systematically close our eyes to the fact that it is

             There are situations in which states are prepared – for whatever reasons – to

             to accept immense costs for wars. Objectively, economically

             Looked at it like this: Russia, an aging country, is currently burning up a whole

             generation of young men. Apparently the political goals of the war are like this

             important that you are willing to pay this price.

 

Question: Behind the AfD and the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht is now apparently established

            A good quarter of the electorate - people who would be willing to give Russia a try

            to make concessions for the sake of peace. What do you tell them?

 

Answer Münkler:  Well. If Ukraine collapses, there will probably be five million

            People flee this room. At least. There could easily be ten

            Millions and more will be. But that's exactly what we want AfD and BSW Yes actually

            exactly not, such migration movements. Both demands – none

            Supporting Ukraine and not accepting more migrants – contradict

            themselves.

 

Answer Marsale:  Both parties endanger Germany's security interests. Especially since

             the costs that we will face in the event of a collapse of Ukraine

             will be many times higher than the costs we now pay for support

             of Ukraine.

            (Source:  sueddeutsche.de, 15.2.24/XNUMX/XNUMX: “Europe is drifting apart”; Interview by Jens-Christian Rabe with Carlo Marsala and Herfried Münkler).

 

Who develops a future strategy?   

At one point of the SZ interviews The question is asked whether there are politicians in Berlin who think strategically with foresight. To which replied Herfried Minkler:  “There are politicians who think about the future. But the vast majority of all politicians only ever think ahead until the next election, i.e. a maximum of four years ahead. Curse of democracy.”  Carlo Marsala said regretfully: “Those who think long-term are not the people who are able to organize majorities in factions and parties or have enough executive influence. That is the central problem. I would like a man Pistorius never deny that he sees the long lines. But is it enough for someone to see them?”

And Europe? The election campaign statements Trumps have startled the Europeans once again. In August 2022 Max Bergman from Center for American Progress in Washington DC noted that the transatlantic alliance was currently experiencing a renaissance, but at the same time pointed out that the commitment of the Biden administration will not last, as China's continued rise will cause the US to turn its attention back to the Pacific Rim. The USA should call for the creation of a European pillar within the NATO alliance and do all it can to ensure that the European Union takes on a more active defense role... It would be desirable for the EU to become a global military power.”  (IPG, 30.8.22;  Max Bergmann: “Europe alone at home”).

The target direction is determined by Bergmann clearly described: Europe should take on the role as an independent military power in NATO.  Bergmann is not the only one who describes this goal, too Münkler and Marsala think along similar lines: “But Germany would have to lead from the front. But nothing is harder to change than the mentality of politicians and the mentality of populations.”

Back to the question: what if Donald Trump will be re-elected as American President on November 5.11.24, 5.11.24? Europe failed to strengthen its own structures in a timely manner and to create “more Europe”. There are many reasons for this that cannot be addressed before the American election day. No matter who the next US President will be, the foreign and domestic political work of establishing new connections to Africa, Asia and South America will begin for Europe from November XNUMXth, XNUMX at the latest. It is good that the Chancellor and the Foreign Minister have already started this. 

The Heilbronn member of the Bundestag Michael Link (FDP), The federal government's coordinator for transatlantic cooperation recently pointed out a special aspect of this unspectacular carting work at an event organized by the European Union in Heilbronn: maintaining contacts with American federal states. “Not all Republican governors are on the same page on trade and climate policy issues Donald Trump.  When Trump Should he come back, he cannot rule permanently against the Senate and the House of Representatives,” said Link on 23.9.23/XNUMX/XNUMX at the Seventh Hertensteier Talks in Heilbronn  (Heilbronn voice, 26.9.23/XNUMX/XNUMX: “Transatlantic preparatory work for emergencies”).

At the meeting of foreign ministers on April 4.4.24, XNUMX, the question “What if...?” was officially discussed for the first time at NATO level. The problem is known. “NATO is facing a breaking point: threatened from the outside by a war in the middle of Europe, and from within by those who consider it obsolete, such as Donald Trump," schrieb Katrin Pribyl on January 4.4.24th, XNUMX in the Heilbronner voice.  A number of proposals are on the table. At the next summit in July, probably in Washington DC, things will get done.

 

 

The last  

 

Election campaign of disrespect

That yourself Donald Trump who cares little about civil decency, is always a source of media discussion. During a speech on March 9.3.24, XNUMX, he mocked his temporary stuttering - to the delight of his fans and not for the first time Joe Biden's after. He stuttered in his youth, but has largely overcome this disability. The New York Times quotes the reaction of a woman who has stuttered all her life to the most recent incident: “Of course, Mr. Trump has repeatedly spoken about the stuttering of Mr Biden made fun of and he will do it again.” The Trump appearance brought back painful memories of her childhood: “Most of us were teased in our childhood. We have experienced this before. So a video like this hits that familiar demeaning feeling.” 

Steven Cheung, a speaker Trumps tried to put his “demonstration” into perspective: “President Trump has clearly about ““Crooked Joe Biden”  declining mental powers, which the whole world can see, and that he is unfit to continue to be the President Cheung the unseemly appearance Trumps not corrected but reinforced).

Maria Town, The president of the American Association for People with Disabilities sent a letter to both parties asking them to "refrain from such statements in the campaigns and call on the party's candidates to behave better."  (nytimes.com, 11.3.24/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Trump's Biden Mockery Upsets People Who Stutter: 'We've Heard This Before'").

 

 

Threat of violence

Posted on March 30.3.2024, XNUMX Donald Trump on his social media platform a video with an image of President Biden showed his hands and feet tied. There is also a note that this picture was taken the day before in Long Island, where Trump attended the wake for a police officer who was murdered in the line of duty. The reported on this New York Times:  “Macabre images that appear on Mr. Trump's outspoken enemies are constantly circulating online among right-wing agitators and Pro Trump groups and are sometimes even shown at conservative conferences. Photos with the tied up Mr Biden are shared on social media and sold online as stickers. That Mr. Trump posted a clip online with this image shows the growing toxicity and personal attacks he is making against Mr Biden directed.” 

To justify the Trump rhetoric refers the Trump campaign again and again on previous statements by the Democrats.   Steven Cheung, the campaign spokesman quoted  Biden from 2018, when he made derogatory statements Trumps about women about women: "If we were in high school, I would beat the hell out of him behind the gymnasium" (nytimes.com, 30.3.2024/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Trump Shares Video Featuring Image of a Hog-Tied Biden”).

 

 

The precursor to hate

In Donald Trumps In his repertoire, there seem to be thought and language templates that he returns to again and again:

• He often treats political opponents, but also party friends, with disrespectful comments

Derisive and insulting names.

• He repeatedly describes migrants in negative terms. They would be out

sent to prisons and mental institutions in the USA. Proofs

he doesn't name for that. Refugees are poisoning the country's blood, he has announced several times; some refugees are not human.

• In his view, critics and political opponents are people who “don’t like our country

love and are not loyal to America.”

How hard it is Trump The court's instructions show that he should keep his appearances and on social media within a respectable framework (gag orders), which were recently imposed against him as part of ongoing criminal proceedings. Repeatedly had Trump Judges, prosecutors, their relatives and other participants in the process were insulted with derogatory statements.  Trump This makes him a bad role model for his fans who believe they have to support or even protect him with threats and other means. They followed the call of “their” president, some of those who were charged with taking part in the storming of the Capitol testified in court. 

When it comes to unauthorized immigration and the problems at the southern border, there are Trump speeches no stopping. At a rally on April 2.4.2024, 25 in Grand Rapids, Michigan, he spoke at length about the death of the XNUMX-year-old Ruby García.  The suspect came to the USA without an entry visa. Trump In his speech, he described the woman killed as a “pretty young woman who was brutally murdered by an illegal alien.” He also told the crowd that he had spoken to the family of the person killed. “They said she had the most infectious laugh and when she came in the room she would light up the room. A lot of people have said that - I spoke to family members." But there's a catch to this story: it's not true. Trump hasn't met anyone in the family Ruby García spoken.

A sister of Ruby García confirmed this in a TV interview. Trump I haven't spoken to anyone in the family. It was a shock to see this false information on television. She accused Trump, turning her sister's death into a borderline problem. “It’s always about illegal immigrants. Nobody talks about when Americans commit heinous crimes and it's shocking that they only talk about the illegals. What about Americans who commit heinous acts like this?”  (nytimes.com, April 3.4.2024, XNUMX: “Contradicting Trump, Ruby Garcia's Sister Says He Never Contacted Family”).

On March 18.3.2024, XNUMX said Donald Trump, when he responded to Israel's criticism President Biden and Sen. Schumer was addressed – Schumer had said, Netanyahu is an obstacle to peace and new elections in Israel: “I think they hate Israel. Every Jewish person who votes for Democrats hates their own religion. They hate everything about Israel and they should be ashamed because Israel is being destroyed.”

A White House spokesman described the statements Trumps as “vile, completely unbalanced and anti-Semitic.” Already during his presidency Trump Jewish voters who vote for the Democrats are described as disloyal. Plus the New York Times: “These comments and the commentary from Monday (18.3.24/XNUMX/XNUMX) continue to awaken the anti-Semitic idea that Jews have divided loyalties and are often more loyal to Israel than to their own countries.”  (nytimes.com, 18.3.24:   “Trump Says Jews Who Support Democrats 'Hate Israel' and 'Their Religion'").

 

Donald Trump experiments with religion

In a previous chapter I described how Trump interacted in a very special way with the group of evangelicals among his fans. He has recently expanded this spiritual connection even further. He and his special ones MAGA friends conjure up the end of the world Doomsday", the end of the world. He has used the term “bloodbath” several times recently, “Stop Bidens Bloodbath at the border. We will lose the Third World War and America will be devastated with weapons the likes of which have never been seen before.” And the promise: “The only thing that stands between you and extinction is me.” This fits with what is special icon Marjorie Taylor Greene from Georgia tweeted on 5.4.24/XNUMX/XNUMX: “God is sending America strong signs to call us to repentance. Earthquakes, and a solar eclipse and much more will come. I pray our country listens.” (nytimes.com, 6.4.2024; Maureen dowd: "Donald Trump “Inatiable Bloodlust”).

Just in time for Easter – on March 26.3.2024th, XNUMX – praise Donald Trump can “The God Bless the USA Bible” (the “God Bless the USA Bible”) for $59,99, plus shipping and taxes. The book contains the King James Bible, the country singer's handwritten lyrics to "God Bless the USA." Lee Greenwood, a copy of the Constitution, of Bill of Rights, of Declaration of Independence and the Pledge of Allegiance. 

Dazu Trump: “All Americans should have a Bible in their home; I own many. It's my favorite book. Religion and Christianity are the main things we miss in this country. We need to get America praying again.”

In a report by New York Times is described how Trump has recently ended its election rallies with a ritual similar to a church service. “Make America pray again.”

 

(Sources: nytimes.com, 26.3.2024:   “Trump’s Newest venture? A $60 Bible”; nytimes.com, April 1.4.2024, XNUMX: “The Church of Trump:  “How He’s Infusing Christianity Into His Movement”; nytimes.com, March 31.3.2024, XNUMX: “There's No Such Thing as an American Bible”, guest article by Esau McCaulley).

 

sequel follows