Posted by Hans Müller on January 1, 2024 at 13:57 p.m

My enclosed draft took a little longer than planned, but is now finished. I won't tackle the announced second part until after the first US primaries. It starts in Iowa on January 2th, 15.1.2024. A lot can happen after that.

 

Originally, I wanted to focus on various rulings by the US Supreme Court, where the completely changed composition of the jury during the Trump presidency resulted in a number of “blockbuster decisions”. But then on October 3.10.2023, 2023, something unprecedented in American history happened, and my originally planned structure was completely turned upside down: A small group of extremely right-wing members of the Republican faction in the House of Representatives let him into office with great difficulty in January XNUMX elected and coming from our own ranks Kevin McCarthy as a Speakers of the House jumped over the edge and paralyzed American legislation. Only after several chaotic weeks were the Republicans able to agree on a new one Speakers of the House some.  

This resulted in -- based on the novel by Theodore dreiser the title of this work: “An American Tragedy”.

The “blockbuster rulings” of the Supreme Court and the current state of the American election campaign complete the first part of the work. Part 1 can't be written until after the Republican primary season begins because a lot can change.

 

Contents

• Introduction
• The dangers of chaos acting
• Mike Johnson from Louisiana – The new Speaker of the House
• The Supreme Court’s rulings have stood the test of time
• Blockbuster Ruling #1:  Repeal the practice of affirmative action
• What does this Supreme Court decision mean?
• Blockbuster Ruling #2:  Further Restrictions on LGBTQ Rights
• Blockbuster Ruling #3:  The American federal government cannot waive student loan repayment obligations
• What’s next at the Supreme Court?
• Back to affirmative action again
• The election campaign is in full swing – is there a new edition? Biden ./. Trump?
• An overview
• Worries about the level of the election campaign
• Election Campaign Stage One:  The Primaries – The Battle for the Candidacy
• The Republicans' first three televised debates
• The verdicts after the fourth debate
• The basic question for all Republican candidates:  How do you keep up Donald Trump?
• …And you’re out!  Mike Pence a tragic figure in Trumps orbit
• More applicants drop out
• Ron DeSantis – A fading star
• The Supre PAC has that DeSantis campaign taken
• Ron De Santis lurches
• Ron De Santis changes its program focus
• Poker for Ukraine
• And what else?
• Preview of part 2

 

Introduction

Parts of political America have been presenting an absurd spectacle to the world for some time. The most recent act: On October 3.10.2023, XNUMX, eight Republican congressmen led by the far right Matt Gaetz from Florida the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the one from your own party Kevin McCarthy sent into the desert. This is a unique event in the history of American parliamentarism: The Republicans withdrew their trust in their own man and thus paralyzed the House of Representatives because, after much back and forth with the Democrats, he negotiated a solution on September 30.9.2023, XNUMX, in short before Ultimo, the threatening ones Shutdown - the government's insolvency - to be postponed for at least 45 days. However, there is new trouble in this because new aid for Ukraine has been excluded. “The possibility of expulsion has been hanging over McCarthy's head since he took office. “One of the concessions he made to the right-wing group in order to be elected as speaker was that every single group member could request a vote of confidence,” wrote the New York Times (nytimes.com, October 1.10.2023, XNUMX: “McCarthy Faces Test as Gaetz Moves to Oust Him for Working With Democrats”). Democrats did not rush to McCarthy's aid; not least because a few days earlier he had allowed his group to open impeachment proceedings against the president without them being able to identify any specific misconduct.      

The New York Times reported a “surreal debate” in the House of Representatives: “Republicans against Republicans” that the Democrats watched in silence. Through the fall of the Speakers of the House  the legislation was brought to a standstill. The New York Times describes the Republican Party as “more and more uncontrollable” (nytimes.com, October 3.10.2023, XNUMX: “McCarthy Is Ousted as Speaker, Leaving the House in Chaos”). All of this happened despite the crisis situation in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The US Congress must approve additional funding to support Ukraine and Israel, but without it Speakers of the House is this not possible.

This climax of the Republican crisis was foreseeable. The expulsion of the Speakers - he is third in the American power hierarchy after the president and vice president - described the NYT as the culmination of the tumultuous nine months that ended in January with 15 rounds of voting in the election of Kevin McCarthy started and now ended with his expulsion after just one vote (nytimes.com, October 3.10.2023, XNUMX:  “McCarthy Is Ousted as Speaker, Leaving the House in Chaos”; nytimes.com, October 3.10.2023, XNUMX: “McCarthy’s Extraordinary Downfall Reflects an Ungovernable G.O.P.).

The Republicans' scramble in the House of Representatives to find a new one lasted a good three weeks Speakers of the House to find. The mood in her group was correspondingly tense. It became clear once again that it is much easier to create chaos than to clean it up. Three speaker candidates – Steve Scarlise from louisiana, Jim Jordan from Ohio and Tom Emmer from Minnesota failed because they did not reach the required 217 votes. “G.O.P. representatives from insecure constituencies in particular pushed for a quick solution to the dilemma because they were worried about their political future. In November 2024, all 435 members of the House of Representatives will be re-elected. The New York Times reported under the headline “Chaos and frustration reign as bitter battle for Speaker deepens” (nytimes.com,  October 20.10.2023, XNUMX: Chaos and Frustration Rule as Republican’s Bitter Speaker Fight Deepens”). After the extreme right Jim Jordan a member of parliament complained that the test had failed for the third time South Carolina, that some colleagues presented personal feuds and petty politics rather than for Jim Jordan agree. Perplexity and sarcasm spread: “I heard the sentence in the group that even Jesus can’t reach 217.” (nytimes.com, October 20.10.2023, XNUMX: “Jordan Fails in Third Vote for Speakership as House Remains Paralyzed”). A few days earlier, when the speaker star for Jim Jordan seemed to rise Jamelle Bouie in the New York Times the foreshadowing question: “Who will take the place of Jim Jordan kick if it falls through? It could even be someone worse. And probably someone worse will, because nothing is happening in the Republican Party to keep them (the Republicans) from falling deeper into the abyss" (nytimes.com, October 17.10.2023, XNUMX: “The Apotheosis of Jim Jordan Is a Sight to Behold”).  

However, on October 25.10.2023th, 220, a small miracle happened: Tired of the internal arguments, the XNUMX Republican representatives present voted Mike Johnson from Louisiana to Speaker of the House.  Johnson is a socially conservative Republican who is little known to the general public. As a Trump supporter and evangelical Christian - he quoted passages from the Bible several times during his introductory speech - he is an outspoken opponent of abortion and same-sex marriage. He also opposes further support for Ukraine and does not believe that burning fossil fuels is changing the climate (nytimes.com, October 26.10.2023, XNUMX: “New House Speaker Champions Fossil Fuels and Dismisses Climate Concerns”). Donald Trump noted on the choice of Mike Johnson: "He will do a great job" (nytimes.com, October 25.10.2023, XNUMX: “House Elects Mike Johnson as Speaker, Embracing a Hard-Right Conservative”). And Carl Hulse, a long-time Washington correspondent for the NYT  noted for election Johnson's: “… the new speaker Mike Johnson from louisiana, a man unknown to most Americans is a second choice that the far right can enthusiastically embrace. He shares his mentor's deeply conservative ideology Jordan without the man's confrontational style Ohio. In reality he has almost no profile” (nytimes.com, October 25.10.2023, XNUMX: “The Far Right Gets Its Man of the House”; Analysis of Carl Hulse). 

Immediately after his election on October 25.10.2023, XNUMX Johnson a hopeful speech that culminated in the statement: "The People's House is back in business!" - "The People's House is working again!" Kevin McCarthy and the choice of “her” husband achieved success. It is difficult to predict whether it will harm or benefit them in the coming election. The rebels in the G.O.P. and especially Donald Trump are with the choice Mike Johnson's not become pragmatic politicians; For them, the term “compromise” is still a dirty word. The election campaign has just begun.

The dangers of chaos acting 

Below I will first describe what happened during the chaotic Republican spectacle. I will then address other developments.   

Immediately after returning from his short trip to the Middle East, President Joe Biden on October 19.10.2023, 23.10.2023, in an urgent speech, called on the Americans and Congress to continue supporting Ukraine and increasing support for Israel. Driven by the wars there, political America is increasingly concerned with foreign policy issues. Important financial decisions had and must be made, but the House of Representatives responsible for them had already been unable to act for over two weeks at the time of Biden's speech and there was no solution to the speaker dilemma in sight. On October XNUMX, XNUMX, an almost insane development emerged in this situation: a growing number of Republican MPs seemed ready to continue supporting Israel, but were inclined to let Ukraine jump over the edge in order to solve the problems within the party solve. The now elected speaker Mike Johnson heard – how Donald Trump and also his strongest rival, Ron De Santis, to the group of Republican Ukraine doubters. Trump criticized for months, Biden squander taxpayers' money in Ukraine (sueddeutsche.de, October 22.10.2, 23: “America asks the fundamental question”). And also Jim Jordan belongs to the group of Ukraine doubters who gave up after three unsuccessful rounds of speaker elections. Mainstream Republicans in particular kicked him out of the field because they fundamentally disagreed with him; especially not when it comes to the question of further support for Ukraine (nytimes.com, 14.10.2/23/XNUMXßXNUMX: “Jordan Activates Right-Wing Pressure Campaign in Push to Win Speakership”). 

In his speech, the President referred to past experiences: “History has taught us that when terrorists do not have to pay for their terror, they cause more chaos and death and more destruction. They just keep going and the cost and threats to America and the world continue to grow” (nytimes.com, 19.10.2023:   “Biden Lays Out Stakes for America as He Seeks Aid for Israel and Ukraine”). If this attitude of leading Republicans were to gain further ground, the United States would have - to the great joy of Putin – not only lost trust around the world, but ultimately said goodbye to the European stage. 

Biden addressed the chaos in the House of Representatives directly: “We cannot allow narrow-minded, partisan and angry politics to get in the way of our responsibilities as a great nation. We cannot and do not want to allow terrorists like this Hamas and tyrants like Putin win. I refuse to let anything like this happen” (nytimes.com, October 19.10.2023, XNUMX: “Full Transcript: Biden’s Speech on Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine Wars”). One day after this speech Biden submitted to Congress a draft aid package worth $105 billion, primarily intended for Israel and Ukraine (nytimes.com, October 20.10.2023, 105: “Biden Requests XNUMX Billion Aid Package for Israel, Ukraine and Other Crises”). When discussing this aid package, the future foreign policy of the USA will not ultimately be decided - far beyond the sums contained in it. Fabian Fellmann, the Washington correspondent of Süddeutsche Zeitung describes this decision as “the fundamental question that the United States has struggled with throughout its history, from the Napoleonic Wars through the World Wars and the bloody conflicts in Southeast Asia to the most recent campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan” (sueddeutsche.de, October 22.10.2023, XNUMX: “America asks the fundamental question”).

The People's House is working again, but there are not only two parties with very different political agendas working there, but also a faction that is deeply divided and increasingly uncontrollable. “The extreme Trumpists among Republicans will continue to work to undermine this support (for Ukraine) - not to mention the catastrophic consequences, especially for Ukraine, of a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House,” writes Daniel Brossler in the Süddeutsche Zeitung (sueddeutsche.de, September 22.9.2023, XNUMX: “And yet: You can rely on Germany”; Comment from Daniel Brossler).

Mike Johnson from Louisiana – The new Speaker of the House

Who is this friendly member of the House of Representatives who has been sitting in this body since 2017 and whom the New York Times describes himself as a “backbencher with little leadership experience”? Mike Johnson is apparently little known to the general public so far. The American media is currently trying to introduce him and describe his political work to date: an evangelical Christian and abortion opponent who rejects advice and help for transgender people and defends laws that criminalized homosexuality and who sees same-sex marriage as the "dark harbinger of chaos and... “sexual anarchy” that can destroy even the strongest country. Johnson was once the chairman of the Republican Study Committee, a group that promoted the idea that every dollar spent on Social Security was a dollar too many. He is a loyal follower Donald Trumps; this one has it as Speakers of the House recommended after Kevin McCarthy had been sent into the desert by his own faction. Sponsored by Jim Jordan from Ohio, who failed three times as a speaker candidate, writes the New York Times Johnson with the sentence: “He is by nature Jim Jordan, However, it differs in style - and this was enough for the Republicans to vote it unanimously Speakers of the House and thus, in case of necessity, to be elected second in the order after the President of the United States" (nytimes.com, October 27.10.2023, XNUMX: “Mike Johnson “Is a Right-Wing Fever Dream Come to Life”; Comment from Jamelle Bouie).

The authoritative, friendly style – so different from that of Jim Jordan – spoke for Mike Johnson. Another commenter the NYT,  Charles M Blow, wrote a very personal post: “I know Mike Johnson, Not the brand new Speaker of the House, but I feel like I know him because we come from the same backwoods area. He comes from Shreveport im Sprengel Caddo in louisiana, where I was born and where one of my brothers died.” Blow describes the style of interaction that people have in the area in the Deep South of the USA from which the new one comes Speaker comes from: “He comes from a part of the country where your Nemesis (the goddess of retributive justice) smiles at you and promises to pray for you, where people quickly admit that they “love the sinner but hate the sin,” where one hand holds the Bible and the other the chains. He comes from a place where people use religion to make their hate appear as love so that they can live happily and guilt-free from now on." A wonderful description of why one might be inclined to like the friendly southerners of the USA and at the same time to overlook some of their peculiarities and their intolerance. 

Charles M Blow but then becomes very serious: “He (Mike Johnson) is what many feared: an example of that Trumpism the second wave – those politicians Trumps Environments that appear with the same political ideas and ideological opinions, but are packaged in a much more sympathetic and urbane manner and driven by something other than mere personal resentment." (nytimes.com, November 1.11.2023, XNUMX: “I Grew Up in Mike Johnson's District, Where Kindness Can Mask Cruelty"; Comment from Charles M Blow).

In order to underline this description of the new speaker, his first political action in the new position will be described here. “Mike Johnson “just confirmed how dubious he is.” David Firestone his report in the New York Times. It was about the treatment of the President Biden put together support package worth 105 billion dollars, especially for Ukraine and Israel Biden had campaigned urgently in his speech on October 19.10.2023, XNUMX. Mike Johnson turned this process into a political production, which the extreme right in the House of Representatives in particular may have enjoyed. Johnson unraveled the package and only voted on aid for Israel worth $14,3 billion. As if that wasn't enough, in order to finance this amount he proposed cutting funding for the tax investigation department. About those also in Bidens The new speaker did not allow the aid package for Ukraine and Taiwan to be voted on. “The bottom line is that the United States can only protect Israel as long as it also protects white-collar crime,” said the NYT and calculated that by reducing tax investigations, the American treasury would lose billions of dollars every year (nytimes.com, October 1.11.2023, XNUMX: “Mike Johnson “Just Confirmed How Dubious He Is”). 

The House of Representatives approved this Republican mini-aid package on November 2.11.2023nd, XNUMX. It is foreseeable that it will not pass in this form in the Senate, as there are members of both parties there - including leading Republicans such as Mitch McConnell, Lindsey Graham, My Romney and Joe wilson for the entire package - including Ukraine and Taiwan - and without the cuts in tax investigation. 

When voting in the House of Representatives, most Democrats voted against this law with its perfidious financing regulations. Twelve Democrats agreed with their stomachs twisting: “Never in my worst dreams would I have thought I would vote for a bill that would attach such cynical conditions to aid to Israel just to satisfy the demands of one party,” the Democratic lawmaker said Brad Schneider from Illinois and voted against the proposal. The nonpartisan U.S. Budget Office has calculated that the savings in tax investigation will mean $12,5 billion less in collections. president Biden has already announced that he will veto the mini-law if it is passed in Congress (nytimes.com, November 2.11.2023, XNUMX: “House Passes Aid Bill for Israel but Not for Ukraine”).

This was Mike Johnsons Debut in his new office. He mixed the most diverse interests from his group - reservations about Ukraine, austerity at all costs and dislike of the tax authorities in their efforts to stop the tax tricks of "big business" - into the mini-law that was initially passed. It is neither well thought out in terms of foreign policy nor will it ultimately reduce the US national deficit. It is a law that was driven by tactical considerations, especially the effort to keep the divided Republicans together. One can imagine how difficult the upcoming budget negotiations will be. 

 

This was a long introduction describing the current political situation in the United States. The president and secretary of state sought to show leadership in the face of two military conflicts while facing - and are facing - small and large domestic problems at the same time. The administration still had funding available until mid-November, but then it was threatened again Shutdown, the insolvency of the federal government. The dilemma was avoided by hanging and choking. Especially at the expense of Ukraine, as will become clear at the end of 2023.

Another problem concerns America: the influx of migrants from South America. And similar to Europe, new panaceas come to the table almost every day, but there are no panaceas on the subject of migration. Patent solutions usually ignore the difficulties and complicated relationships involved in practical implementation. They suggest to other people that they work and make them wonder why no one has come up with this solution yet. The 2024 US election campaign is already underway and the Republicans are expected to present a presidential candidate who has several criminal cases on his hands. His party is deeply divided over fundamental questions about shaping its future. Some aspects of this will be dealt with in the second part of this discussion.

The Supreme Court’s rulings have stood the test of time

At the beginning of this paper I originally wanted to report on some recent Supreme Court rulings. But recent developments in the House of Representatives have pushed this issue back. It should now be taken up.

The Supreme Court of the United States has nine justices who are nominated by the President, confirmed by the Senate, and then serve on the Supreme Court for life. That is why the composition of the judiciary rarely changes. Donald Trump During his term in office, however, he had the unique opportunity to fill three vacant judge positions with people of his choice. This gave the court a conservative majority of 6:3; This will not change in the foreseeable future and will continue to shape conservative legal interpretation for a long time. There are studies that show that one judge “breaks out” of the conservative phalanx and “defects” to the three liberal judges. This leads to so-called “divided decisions”. In the last session of the Supreme Court, the six conservatives were on the majority side in 73 percent of the cases. 

The New York Times reported on three conservative blockbuster decisions with which the Supreme Court ended this session “in the usual manner”. The court had the practice of Affirmative action of universities that encouraged the admission of black students. Furthermore, the rights of gender minorities were further restricted and finally a decision was made on partial forgiveness of student loans. “In the usual way” means that the three judges proposed by Democratic presidents found themselves on the minority side in all three decisions (nytimes.com, July 1.7.2023, XNUMX: “Along With Conservative Triumph, Signs of New Caution at Supreme Court”). 

Blockbuster Ruling #1:  Repeal the practice of affirmative action

I want to show how far back in time the Republican-appointed judges are looking for arguments using the court's 6: 3 decision of June 29.6.2023, XNUMX, which established a race-based preference for students in admission to universities (affirmative action) was repealed. Donald Trump called the decision “a great day for America.” President Joe Biden spoke of a step back into the past. It is difficult to predict how much this decision will affect the composition of the university student body. There is already some initial discussion about the original goal of the affirmative action, To promote diversity at universities through a socio-political approach: Not Rasse but Class should be promoted in the future; or formulated as a question: Will there be something like BAFöG in the USA in the future? 

However, following this ruling, there is a risk that the Supreme Court will in the near future also put a stop to other practices in university admissions that aim to increase diversity. A case from the Thomas Jefferson High School of Science and Technology in Fairfax County, Virginia is already on its way through the instances. There is no criterion for admission to this school Rasse In the foreground, a number of socio-economic criteria are examined in order to achieve more diversity for the students. And in fact, these criteria have achieved an increase in the proportion of black and Hispanic students. Will the Supreme Court enforce the “color blindness of the Constitution” here too? Or does the court accept that politicians and universities “disguise” the goal (diversity) and not only apply the criterion of “race” but other selection criteria when admission?

To describe the now threatening development: Martin Luther King would have to turn in his grave if the Supreme Court upheld racial segregation Jim Crow laws bring it back out of the mothballs of history and legalize it (nytimes.com, July 10.7.2023, XNUMX: The Next Battle Over Colorblindness has Begun”; Guest post by Sonja B. Starr).

According to this judgment Affirmative action becomes clear, that the history of slavery in America, as well as the Civil War and its consequences and racial segregation through the so-called Jim Crow laws have not yet been processed in the southern states of the USA. The challenges of the multicultural society in the United States remain on the sociopolitical agenda for resolution. To clarify, I would like to go into the judgment of June 29.6.2023, XNUMX and its reasons in more detail. The Supreme Court is harkening back to the distant times of racial segregation in America. 

Already during the presidency of John F. Kennedy (1961 – 1963) was started under the heading Affirmative action to develop a whole package of measures, programs and plans to give ethnic minorities better access to higher education, administration, the military and the economy. In a presidential order Kennedys The term was first used in 1961 Affirmative action used. The Süddeutsche Zeitung explains the term broadly as an “affirmative action” and a “procedure for improving the educational and employment opportunities of members of demographic groups – such as (ethnic) minorities, women and the elderly – in order to avert the consequences of long-standing discrimination. In this context it is Affirmative action Part of the effort to combat disadvantages that arise from structural racism” (sueddeutsche.de, June 30.6.2023, XNUMX: “What is ‘Affirmative Action’ – and what is now changing at US universities?”).

The keyword “structural racism” was and is particularly important when it comes to the measures developed in America Affirmative action to understand. The core of this approach was belonging to an ethnic group, that is “Race” and not the economic situation of a university applicant. Through Affirmative Action – There is also talk of “positive discrimination” – especially members of the black community promoted. At Wikipedia shall Affirmative action described in detail:

Affirmative action involves more than quotas, which are used very rarely in the United States and only in particularly severe cases of discrimination. Affirmative action includes diversity training and special educational programs against racism and sexism as well as lowering performance standards (e.g. at universities) overall or for certain disadvantaged groups. At some universities in the United States, affirmative action takes place through the points system: At the University of Michigan, applicants can achieve a maximum of 150 points, of which 20 points each for “socio-economic disadvantage” and for belonging to an “underrepresented racial-ethnic minority”. “. Most affirmative action programs in the United States use self-reporting of potential beneficiaries' racial and ethnic origins. The categories used - for example in application forms for college admission - are usually based on the corresponding definitions from the United States Census. If the self-declaration subsequently turns out to be implausible or even fraudulent, this can have negative consequences for the applicant. (Wikipedia: “Affirmative Action”).

This complicated and cumbersome description of the term Affirmative action makes it clear how difficult it is to bureaucratically implement the goal of promoting ethnic minorities in the various areas of society. At Wikipedia The University of Michigan is mentioned as an example. But  Affirmative action is not implemented in the same way everywhere. This is one of the reasons why the programs and measures are repeatedly criticized.

On June 29.6.2023, XNUMX, the decision was made supreme court, that Harvard University and the University of North Carolina are no longer allowed to apply considerations based on the race of those being admitted when admitting students - as was previously the case; This means that they can no longer give preference to African-Americans when it comes to admission. Both of these lawsuits reached the US Supreme Court. The decisions will affect admissions processes at all other colleges and universities in the United States. The lower courts had followed the previous practice Affirmative action declared legal. The Supreme Court repealed it with a 6-3 judge vote. The Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. stated that each student must be assessed individually; he or she must be viewed as an individual based on their abilities and not as a member of a particular race.    

The judge spoke with unusually sharp words sonia sotomayor The minority opinion: “The Court is undermining the constitutional guarantee of equal rights by deepening racial inequality in education, the critical foundation of our democratic system of government and pluralistic society.”

The judges had an extraordinary public exchange of blows Clarence Thomas from the majority side and the judge Ketanji Brown Jackson from the minority. These are the two black members of the Supreme Court (nytimes.com, June 29.6.2023, XNUMX: “In Affirmative Action Ruling, Black Justices Take Aim at Each Other”). 

Conservative figures welcomed the decision. It makes the admissions process at universities fairer. Democrats and President Biden criticized the verdict as a step into the past (nytimes.com, June 29.6.2023, XNUMX: “Supreme Court Rejects Affirmative Action Programs at Harvard and U.N.C.”). In fact, when interpreting the US Constitution, six justices on the majority side had resorted to a legal figure that the judge on supreme court, John Marshall Harlan (1833 – 1911) represented the court in a controversial decision in 1896. In that case Plessy v. Ferguson the question was whether the state of Louisiana may require separate train compartments for white and black citizens. The Supreme Court approved this with a 7:1 vote and introduced the principle of “separate but equal” into the American legal system. From this developed the disastrous system of racial segregation in the American South, with all the later ones Jim Crow-laws, which was only passed in 1954 by a ruling by the Supreme Court were repealed. 

The judge expressed the dissenting opinion in 1896 John Marshall Harlan with a reason that today seems strange and contradictory: "Our constitution is blind to skin color; it neither recognizes nor tolerates classes between citizens." What at first glance looks like a courageous but failed plea for racial equality and against racial segregation becomes relativized by the further findings Harlans: The white race sees itself as the dominant race in this country. And it is in terms of prestige, achievements, education, wealth and power. It will be so, I have no doubt, for all time, if it remains true to its great heritage and adheres to the principles of constitutional freedoms. But in the view of this Constitution and in the eyes of the law, there is no superior, dominant, ruling class of citizens in this country. There are no castes…” The core message Harlan's was that the white race sees itself as the dominant race in the country and will be for all time if it remains true to its great heritage... Constitution or not, because it is blind to the color of the skin (quote from Wikipedia: Plessy v. Ferguson). 

Jamelle Bouie, an African-American opinion columnist New York Times has investigated whether the Harlan's Legal figure from the color-blind constitution from 1896 is suitable as a basis for a decision by the 2023 Supreme Court to be used. For Bowie is Harlan not a defender of racial equality but someone who believed that the Constitution could ensure hierarchy and inequality even without state law. “Not racial segregation (that Louisiana stipulated by law and the Supreme Court declared to be legal) was wrong, but – like that Harlan's opinion – it was unnecessary,” writes Jamelle Bouie and quotes the legal scholar Phillip Hutchison from its analysis of Plessy v. Ferguson from 2015: “Harlan's Statement about the colorblind constitution is part of a text that expresses the belief that the white race is inherently superior and their black counterparts are fundamentally inferior: “Blacks and whites may be equal before the law, but this does not mean that they are equal are equal in all other respects...” (nytimes.com, July 7.7.2023, XNUMX: “No One Can Stop Talking About Justice John Marshall Harlan“; Comment from Jamelle Bouie).

In a guest post in the New York Times the law professor also sits down Sonja B. Starr from the University of Chicago with the judgment of Supreme Court apart in detail. Among other things, she criticizes the fact that the court - despite the visible consequences of racial inequality in many areas of life in the USA - shows reservations about the criterion of "race" in social policy and uses the legal figure of the "color blindness of the constitution". Sonja B. Starr Missing from the judgment on affirmative action is whether the court will also reject other criteria that can promote social integration. In this context, she writes about a “pro-diversity policy”, i.e. a policy that accepts the diversity of society and wants to promote it - without the criterion of “race”. The professor is skeptical: “It remains to be seen how far it will go Supreme Court will continue to pursue the path of colorblindness...The decisions of the lower courts show a less radical path” (nytimes.com, July 10.7.2023, XNUMX: “The Next Battle Over Colorblindness Has Begun”). 

What does this Supreme Court decision mean?   

The Süddeutsche Zeitung examines this question in a report on this judgment:

“It is difficult to predict how the racial makeup of U.S. universities will change as a result of Thursday's (June 29.6.2023, XNUMX) decision. On the one hand, the US population itself is becoming increasingly ethnically diverse, so whites are expected to no longer be the majority in the country before mid-century. On the other hand, the financial resources and thus the chances of attending university for ethnic minorities are often worse than those of whites, which is also an original argument for Affirmative action was. However, it can be assumed with certainty that the decision will encourage further polarization of sentiment in the USA. Even president Joe Biden has already found unusually sharp words when he said in reaction to the court ruling Supreme Court in his current position, especially from his predecessor in office Donald Trump influenced composition is “not normal!” (sueddeutsche.de, June 30.6.2023, XNUMX: “What is “Affirmative Action” – and what will now change at US universities?”).

The intensity of the academic debate following this ruling shows how much the history of slavery, which now seems to be a long time ago, still concerns the USA. Racial segregation in the southern states was abolished in 1954. Subsequently, a variety of steps were taken to integrate ethnic minorities, especially the black population. And yet it's still bubbling beneath the surface. Further socio-political steps are required. The repeal of the Affirmative action from durch Supreme Court In my opinion, this was done by the wrong authority. Politics – i.e. legislation and the government – ​​is primarily responsible for shaping the increasingly diverse American society. “The court used to show restraint when it came to major social issues,” he said Christian Zaschke in the Süddeutsche Zeitung firmly. “The fact that the current court does not shy away from actively reshaping society in a conservative sense was demonstrated last year with the abolition of the nationwide right to abortion and now with the abolition of the Affirmative action confirmed" (sueddeutsche.de, June 29.6.2023, XNUMX: “The extended arm of the Republicans”).

Blockbuster Ruling #2:  Further Restrictions on LGBTQ Rights

In a previous essay on this weblog I explained how the themes of the Culture War – Abortion, LGBTQ, censorship of textbooks, art and culture, education policy and parental rights – have determined political debates in the USA. They will probably also play a role in the 2024 election campaign, but will no longer be at the center of discussions. Ron De Santis initially focused his presidential campaign entirely on these issues, but later made a thematic shift. This should be in the DeSantis chapter still be talked about. (My previous essays: “Culture War – The battle over how Americans think and feel“-May 30.5.2023, XNUMX; “The "red wave" didn't materialize...“-- January 12.1.2023, XNUMX).

In general terms: A goal of conservative politics Culture War is to tell people in the United States how to live their private lives. The LGBTQ community has been at the top of the hate list in recent years Culture Warrior shifted. Charles M Blow, a commentator of New York Times describes these current and upcoming conflicts as the “battle of the century”. To legally secure same-sex marriage, President Joe Biden on December 13.12.2022th, XNUMX Respect for Marriage Act sign and thereby put into effect. The New York Times described this law as a “tectonic shift in public opinion,” a milestone in securing the rights of LGBTQ people. The law was passed in both chambers of Congress with votes from both parties. Among other things, it prohibits states from invalidating the validity of a marriage performed in another state based on gender, race or ethnicity.

But the conservative majority in... Supreme Court On June 20.6.2023, XNUMX, found a way to slightly reverse the legal status of same-sex marriages. A legal dispute that seemed insignificant at first glance developed Supreme Court to a model case of Culture War. The court voted 6-3 Lorie Smith, an evangelical web designer Colorado right. Despite a state law Colorado, which prohibits discrimination against LGBTQ people by businesses that offer their services to the public Lorie Smith refuse to design a website for same-sex couples for religious reasons. The 1st Amendment to the Constitution, which enshrines the free exercise of religion, prohibits the federal government from doing so Colorado, to force the web designer to create a design that contradicts her beliefs, he decided supreme court.

Lower courts have generally ruled in favor of same-sex couples when bakeries, florists and other businesses have refused them their services. With this decision, in which two fundamental rights had to be weighed against each other - the right to freedom of expression and free exercise of religion and LGBTQ rights - the Supreme Court continued its recent practice of ruling in favor of religious people and groups, especially conservative Christians, the New York Times firmly. 

The future consequences of this judgment are also difficult to predict. Lorie Smith, The winning web designer noted that if the state had won, it would be able to force artists to do things that contradict their religious principles. The opposing side assumes that this ruling will punch a hole in all anti-discrimination laws. The service and business world can now refuse to serve black people or Muslims, for example, and seriously present all sorts of strange reasons for doing so (sources: nytimes.com, June 30.6.2023, XNUMX: “Gay Rights Ruling – Supreme Court Backs Web Designer Opposed to Same-Sex Marriage”; sueddeutsche.de, June 30.6.2023, XNUMX:  “Supreme Court restricts LGBTQ rights and thwarts Biden”).

The journalist Kate Shaw points out in a guest article in the New York Times points out that since the appointment of the judge Amy Coney Barrett in 2020 the Supreme Court In most cases involving religious issues, the Christian plaintiffs were right. Kate Shaw fears that in the next few years religion could receive an even higher status in the US legal system. She sees a significant difference to the court's previous decisions: “While, historically, members of small religious groups were protected from discrimination in previous decisions on religious freedom, in the most recent cases the believers of mainstream Christian religions are the winners. 

Shaw points out that the free exercise of religion is undoubtedly an important American value protected by the Constitution and traditions. However, she adds, almost warningly: “But this is not the only such value.” (nytimes.com, July 8.7.2023, XNUMX: “The Supreme Court’s Disorienting Elevation of Religion”; Guest post by Kate Shaw).

Blockbuster Ruling #3: The American federal government may not waive student loan repayment obligations

On June 29.6.2023, 6, the Supreme Court decided with the same majority of 3:XNUMX judges that the federal government was not entitled to partially forgive less wealthy university graduates of their student debts. The formal legal justification: A law is required for this. However, this is not to be expected given the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. 

To fully understand the impact of this decision, I would have to explain in detail what a university degree costs in the USA and how it is financed by students. The Süddeutsche Zeitung explained this as follows: Young women and men can only afford a high-level education by borrowing money... “In total, more than 45 million people are $1,6 trillion in debt due to tuition fees, which is roughly equivalent to the economic output of Brazil or Australia” (sueddeutsche.de, June 30.6.2023, 19: “Supreme Court restricts LGBTQ rights and thwarts Biden”). In view of the Covid-2020 epidemic, the Trump administration suspended repayment obligations in March XNUMX Joe Biden had extended the suspension. The payments were due again from October this year.  

With the Student Loan Forgiveness Plan hatte Biden More than 20 million people – depending on their income – want to have their repayment obligation waived by $10 – $20 million. Six Republican states and two individual plaintiffs had sued against it - “The arch-conservative majority of judges voted 6:3 in their favor,” wrote the Suddeutsche Zeitung. 

Similar to the Supreme Court ruling of June 24.6.2022, XNUMX, which overturned the right to abortion, this decision will also have political consequences. On the one hand, probably at the ballot box and, on the other hand, in future initiatives by the Democrats not to leave students with high debts at the end of their studies to start a new phase of life (nytimes.com, July 1.7.2023, XNUMX: “Supreme Court Decisions on Education Could Offer Democrats an Opening”). 

What’s next at the Supreme Court?   

Recently, a new field of work for constitutional lawyers has been developing after around 20 Republican-governed states quickly passed more or less restrictive regulations for the advice and care of transgender minors. “The disputes that initially took place at the political level and in parliaments have moved into the courts” (nytimes.com, October 3.10.2023, 14: “Young People Left in Limbo as Battle Over Transgender Care Shifts to Court”). In at least XNUMX states, those affected and LGBTQ organizations have filed lawsuits, partially stopping the implementation of these laws. One consequence of these developments is that when it comes to transgender care – similar to abortion – a legal patchwork with different regulations has emerged and continues to emerge in the states. “The political and legal chaos is likely to come from Supreme Court which currently has a 6-3 conservative majority and has long been an arbiter of legal issues surrounding LGBTQ rights,” writes the NYT and mentions another consequence of the current uncertain legal situation: “In the meantime, transgender minors are in a state of limbo, unsure whether they can fill their next prescription for puberty blockers or hormone therapy.” 

According to the landmark judgment of the Supreme Court of June 24.6.2022, XNUMX, which overturns the current law on abortion and assigns decision-making authority to the states, not all battles have been fought yet. In its new session, the Supreme Court with a lawsuit against the more than 20 years ago by the Food and Drug Administration approval of the abortion pill mifepristone deal with. This drug is currently used to terminate pregnancy in more than half of cases. 

After the “remarkable conservative victories” in decisions of the Supreme Court – can New York Times gives an example of the repeal of the Affirmative action and the further curtailment of LGBTQ rights - the newspaper asks how far the court will go to limit the "power of the executive" - ​​the possibilities of the "administrative state" through regulations of the various branches of government such as Food and Drug Administration – to continue to prune. This “power of the administrative state” has long been a thorn in the side of conservatives in the United States. The upcoming court rulings will not only affect the area of ​​food and drug supervision; The supervisory authorities for occupational safety and health but also environmental protection would also be affected. “Recent developments suggest that the six Republican nominees are continuing to shift the law to the right” (nytimes.com, October 1.10.2023, XNUMX: “A Battered Supreme Court Returns to Confront a Challenging Docket”). This “disempowerment of the executive” may sound democratic at first glance, but a shift in competencies, for example in environmental protection, also means reducing the respective expertise and - with doubtful results - strengthening the influence of lobbyists.

That decisions of the Supreme Court have a direct impact on political events and elections, has become clear at the latest since the abortion ruling of June 24.6.2022, 2022. It turned out that the conservative judges lag behind the attitudes of American society. This ruling contributed significantly to the Republicans losing the majority in the US Senate in 7.11.2023 and only narrowly holding on to it in the House of Representatives. The midterm elections on November XNUMX, XNUMX in several states confirmed this trend. In Ohio A whopping majority of voters voted to secure the right to abortion in the state constitution. In Virginia was a key goal of the Republican governor Glenn Youngkin, to ban abortion only after the 15th week of pregnancy. He emphasized that this was not a strict ban but just a limitation. “A ban is a ban,” Democrats argued. Another goal Youngkins in these elections was, next to the House of Representatives of Virginia also to capture the state Senate. The Republicans lost the majority in both chambers on November 7.11.2023, XNUMX (nytimes.com, November 10.11.2023, XNUMX: “American Elections Are About Abortion Now”; Guest commentary by Tom Bonier).

Part of the GOP has maneuvered itself into a dead end on the issue of abortion. "If the Republican Party were a normal political party, it would be capable of strategic adjustments... But consider the recent Republican candidates' debate on November 8.11.2023, XNUMX, in which the candidates continued to emphasize their opposition to the inclusion of transgender people in everyday life in America." … “If God created you to be a man, you compete against men in sports,” Senator explained Tim Scott from South Carolina when summarizing the debate (nytimes.com, November 10.11.2023, XNUMX: “The G.O.P’s Culture War Shtick Is Wearing Thin With Voters”; Comment from Jamelle Bouie). A few days later, on November 12.11.2023th, XNUMX Scott withdrew his bid for the Republican presidential nomination (nytimes.com, November 12.11.2023, 24: “Tim Scott Suspends 'XNUMX Campaign, as His Sunny Message Failed to Resonate”).

Encouraged by recent success in Ohio a coalition of organizations and activist groups has begun to... Florida to collect around 900 signatures for a petition with the aim of enshrining the right to abortion in the constitution. Not an easy task. Similar to in Ohio had in Florida the Republican governor and presidential candidate Ron De Santis with its Republican majority pushed through a law banning abortion after the 6th week of pregnancy. Lawsuits are ongoing against this law; its entry into force is suspended for that period. In Florida The previous 15-week period still applies at the moment. However, different than in Ohio, where the constitutional initiative was successful with 57 percent of the vote, are in Florida 60 percent required to be successful. Those behind the initiative are confident. Surveys showed that more than 70 percent of “Floridians” would agree to the initiative (nytimes.com, November 11.11.2023, XNUMX: “Ohio Voted to Protect Arboriculture Rights. Could Florida Be Next?”).

If the initiative is successful and there is a vote, it would have to Ron De Santis, one of the most vehement culture warriors, defended his six-week law, for which he also received criticism from within his own ranks. Donald Trump has his competitor DeSantis announced that banning abortion from the 6th week of pregnancy was a bad thing and a terrible mistake. However said Trump nothing about his ideas on this issue. Apparently he doesn't want to disappoint his supporters, alienate the moderates or even mobilize the progressives against him (nytimes.com, November 10.11.2023, XNUMX: “American Elections Are About Abortion Now”; Guest commentary by Tom Bonier).

Another result of the midterm elections confirms that the broad public opinion on this issue differs significantly from the ideas of the Republicans. In Virginia After an intensive election campaign that received nationwide attention, Danica Rom elected by the Democrats as the first transgender woman to the state Senate. She won the majority by a margin of less than 2 votes. Her opponents had invested several million dollars to make her identity known. “You’re scared of ‘trans’,” commented Danica Rom (nytimes.com, October 8.11.2023, XNUMX: “Danica Rom Will Become the First Transgender State Senator in the South”).   

A constitutional question in connection with the upcoming primaries is likely to arise Supreme Court busy soon. The question is whether Donald Trump can be admitted or excluded from the Republican primaries in various states. In Colorado and Maine appropriate procedures are underway with the aim of Trump on the basis of Amendment 14, paragraph 3 of the US Constitution (participation in insurrection or insurrection) to be inadmissible to the primaries, an action that has never happened before in American history.

Back to “Affirmative Action”

The keyword “affirmative action” was and is about the fundamental question of how inequality in a diverse society can be prevented or its consequences can be balanced out through political action. This task is complex and riddled with pitfalls – a real challenge for politicians. The Supreme Court has now declared the previous political solution to be null and void. What to do?

In a report by New York Times explained Thomas B Edsall, why the Democrats are not using this ruling for a political campaign, similar to what they did after the abortion ruling on June 24.6.2022, 2020. That ruling sparked an outcry among moderate and liberal voters alike, which significantly influenced the 2024 election results and could still play a role in XNUMX. After Affirmative actionJune 2023 decision overturning race-based college and university admissions preferences met with only a mild outcry. The majority of Americans were and are opposed to repealing abortion rights, but did not support the programs Affirmative action. 

Thomas B Edsall has interviewed economists and social scientists about this complex and collected data from Economist/You Gov published. Accordingly, 59 percent agreed Affirmative ActionSupreme Court ruling on; 27 percent were against it. To the specific question of whether colleges and universities should also consider the “race” of the person being admitted when making admissions, 25 percent answered “yes” and 64 percent answered “no”. The political reactions to the abortion ruling were so serious not least because “Pro Life” organizations and also the former vice president Mike Pence Immediately after the ruling of June 24.6.2022, XNUMX, which transferred regulatory authority to the states, they announced that they would continue their campaign to completely ban all abortion. Opposite that found “Affirmative Action” There was little support among the general public before and after the 2023 verdict.   

The of Edsall The scientists interviewed cited widespread developments and attitudes in the public: Although there was and is a trend to the left when it comes to the abstract question of equality in society, people do not always agree with the practical measures involved. In the NYTReport from Thomas B Edsall It states: “There has been a continued movement to the left on the issue of equality when it comes to abstract description, but far less agreement when the equality agenda is translated into specific policy, for example Busing or Affirmative Action.”

The political scientist notes that this looks like a contradiction James A Stimson from the University of North Carolina, “…the crucial point, however, is that they (the general public) do not make the connection between the problem and its solution. That's why it has Affirmative action a very problematic story. The public is capable of supporting political goals (such as racial balance in higher education), but rejects the means to achieve them" (nytimes.com, November 15.11.2023, XNUMX: “Overturning Roe Changed Everything. “Overturning Affirmative Action Did Not”; Guest post by Thomas B Edsall).   

In a previous guest article in the New York Times quoted Thomas B Edsall various scientists on the effects of the abortion ruling of June 24.6.2022, XNUMX. Norman Ornstein from American Enterprise Institute believes that this decision will be the unique helping factor for the Democrats: "The fact that red states (states with a Republican majority) are moving in an increasingly extreme direction - including banning abortion after rape and incest, with reputation, how women bleed to death after an untreated miscarriage, recognizing that doctors are fleeing to other states because they are being criminalized – will fire up voters in the suburbs and young voters.” 

Robert M. Stein, a political scientist at the Rice University notes that the majority of voters still support abortion rights, but direct interest in the issue is declining. But also Stein adds that Republican lawmakers are doing themselves a disservice by continuing to make abortion an important issue instead of dampening discussion about it. “The recent conviction of a mother in Nebraska, who had gotten her daughter abortion pills shows the true face and effects of the Dobbs ruling and the restriction of the right to abortion” (nytimes.com, September 27.9.2023, 1860: “This Is Going to Be the Most Important Election Since XNUMX”; Guest post by Thomas B Edsall).

The election campaign is in full swing - is there a new edition of Biden ./. Trump?

An overview

Elections will take place in the United States on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. The most important decision of this day is undoubtedly being noticed worldwide: Who will be the next President of the USA? Almost a year before the election, there are many indications that there will be a new edition of the duel Biden ./. Trump  will come. It is difficult to estimate what Bidens Declaration dated December 5.12.2023, XNUMX means: If Trump If he is not running, he will consider whether to enter the race. The original wording: “If  Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running” – the word “If” in particular leaves a lot open and gives room for speculation. Like: What if at the end Kamala Harris against Nikki Haley would compete? Two women in the fight for the US presidency... This has never happened before in the history of the USA (nytimes.com, December 6.12.2023, XNUMX: “Biden Says ‘I’m Not sure I’d Be Running’ if Not for Trump”). It is unclear whether, in addition to these two likely candidates from the parties, other candidates will run as “independents”. There are currently interested parties. 

In addition, all 5.11.2024 members of the House of Representatives, in which the Republicans currently have a wafer-thin majority, will be elected on November 435, 34. 5.11.2024 members of the Senate will also be elected. The Democrats currently have a narrow majority in this chamber of the US Congress. I don't want to speculate about the outcome of the congressional elections. Many elected officials and officials will be up for election on November XNUMX, XNUMX at the state and local level. Votes on very different initiatives in different states can be interesting – also for “big” politics. Something like this Ohio, where an initiative to secure the right to attrition in the state constitution may have to be decided.

Worries about the level of the election campaign

Before I describe individual aspects of American politics, I want a campaign speech Donald Trumps from November 11.11.2023th, XNUMX in Claremont, New Hampshire, for which he received a lot of criticism in the USA and whose diction and objectives can worry not only Americans but also Europeans. As is well known, has Trump with his speech on January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX, he incited his supporters to storm the Capitol. He has now been charged. The speech in Claremont contained similar explosives and could one day help supposed “patriots” take the law into their own hands again to “save” their country. Excerpts from the speech in the The Washington Post Reading it gives cause for concern. The appearance Trumps watching on TV is scary. This speech Trumps has triggered an extraordinary public discussion of fascism in America, which I will report on in more detail in Part 2 of this work, which is yet to be published. 

That Donald Trump Regularly covering his opponents with ridicule and contempt is evidence of poor style. Ron De Santis he repeatedly calls “Ron DeSanctimonious”. To the delight of his followers, he made fun of it during an appearance on October 11.10.2023, XNUMX DeSantis Wear cowboy boots with high heels to appear taller. Trump With such, he gives the impression that he has to make others smaller with derogatory statements in order to appear big himself.

Back to the speech Trumps on 11.11.2023/XNUMX/XNUMX in Claremont, N.H. There were statements in it that were much more than just bad form. “We assure you that we will exterminate the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs who live like vermin within the borders of our country, who lie and steal and cheat in elections... They will do anything, whether legal or illegal, “To destroy America and the American dream” (washingtonpost.com, November 12.11.2023, XNUMX: “Trump calls political enemies ‘vermin’, echoing dictators Hitler, Mussolini”).

In the speech described himself Trump once again as a victim of a system that is out to hunt him down and his supporters. A “message of revenge and resentment” could be heard from the speech as he finally described himself as a “proud election denier,” meaning: one of the large group of Republicans who do not recognize the 2020 election results.

That Trump Using the term “Vermin” (pests, vermin) for his political opponents triggered extremely critical reactions: “This is the language of dictators to instill fear,” said Timothy Naftali from the School of Public Affairs at the ColumbiaUniversity. “When you dehumanize opponents, you take away their right to participate safely in a democracy because you are saying that they are not human. This is how dictators act.” Hearing such formulations echoed across Europe from the United States, the model country of a democracy, is very disturbing. What's next?

The “Vermin” speech on November 11.11.2023, XNUMX was not the first rhetorical misstep Trumps. In an interview on immigration in early October, he said the following: “Nobody has any idea where these people come from, we know they come from prisons. We know they come from institutions for the mentally ill and asylums for the feebleminded. We know they are terrorists. Nobody has ever experienced anything like what we are currently experiencing. This is very sad for our country. It poisons the blood of our country. It's very bad and people come in with illnesses. People come with everything you can have.” There is no evidence that the immigrants come from prisons and psychiatric hospitals (nytimes.com, October 5.10.2023, XNUMX: “Trump Escalates Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric With ‘Poisoning the Blood”).

Trump uses easy-to-understand and descriptive language. He makes it clear that he feels no empathy for refugees and immigrants. When taken to its logical conclusion, he wants to say: Undocumented immigrants are the cause of the world's evil; They shouldn't come to the United States, they don't deserve our pity. Trump appeals to the hard-heartedness of his compatriots. He takes into account that such statements will trigger opposition, even from within his own ranks if in doubt. After giving a campaign speech on December 19.12.2023, XNUMX in Iowa After making similar statements, he was criticized by several Republican senators, including Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader in the Senate. But he also received encouragement, for example from J.D. Vance, the Republican senator Ohio who said “it is objectively and obviously true that illegal immigrants are poisoning the blood of the country.”

The broad contradiction from the middle of society was disruptive Trump obviously not. His critics held out quotes Hitler's “My Struggle” towards and Trump replied that he had never read the book. Already on December 16.12.2023, XNUMX he had New Hampshire made similar statements. Achieved with such sentences Trump  his following. In the eyes of the general public, they obviously do him no harm. But how do his evangelical followers react? Trump convinced Christians? Could they have doubts in the face of such harsh statements? Build for them Trump in his speech that Christians in America were being attacked by the Democrats. He will set up a task force at the federal level to combat anti-Christian prejudice because “they are after Christians.” (nytimes.com, December 16.12.2023, XNUMX: “Trump, Attacked for Echoing Hitler, Says He Never Read ‘Mein Kampf’”).

Maybe you had in Trump staff fears that such statements could get things out of hand and there were attempts from the campaign to explain this. Steven Cheung, the spokesman of the Trump campaign described the statements as “normal phrases of everyday life. Anyone who believes this is racist or xenophobic is living in a different reality, consumed by senseless indignation.” (nytimes.com, 5.10.2023: Trump Escalates Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric With 'Poisoning the Blood'").

A third example of Trumps heated election campaign rhetoric should also be mentioned (trump-Quotes from nydirect@nytimes.com, December 6.12.2023, XNUMX / The Morning):

“The final battle will be fought in 2024.”

“Either they win or we win. And if they win, we won’t have a country anymore.”

“Our country is going to hell…”

Trump has increased his rhetoric far beyond the volume of the previous two campaigns. He has claimed that “the blood-soaked streets of our once great cities are now cesspits of violent crime” and that Americans are living “in the most dangerous time in our country’s history.”

Election campaigns, not least in the USA, are not a matter of kid gloves. But these examples show: The level Donald Trumps will further divide American society. Some of the media and civil society criticize Trumps Failures, but this is annoying Trump not. On the contrary: he sees himself as a victim. His fans seem to like this and a larger portion of the Republican Party accepts it. The Democrats like Trumps Criticize failures, but they are “the others”. As long as there is no widespread resistance within the GOP leadership, Trump carry on as before.

The New York Times reports what consequences the heated climate can have in the deeply divided American society. At the FBI There is growing concern about the threat to his agents. Last year, officers shot and killed a man who walked into the office of the FBI in Cincinnati, OH wanted to break in. In Tennessee A man is accused of carrying out an attack on the office of FBI in Knoxville to have planned. He is already charged in connection with the storming of the Capitol on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX, where he attacked police officers and planned to murder federal officers who checked on him.

All kinds of threats are published on social media and photos of weapons are shown. Federal authorities and local institutions are on high alert to protect law enforcement agencies and judges involved in criminal cases against Trump are active. A particularly serious case occurred in the state Utah. A 9.8.2023-year-old man was born there on August 75, XNUMX FBI officials shot, who has already received several threats - including against Alvin L Bragg, the district attorney of Manhattan - had appeared. On Facebook he mocked that FBI: “To my friends in Federal Bureau of Idiots: I know you’re reading this.” As president Biden to an event in  Salt Lake City was announced, he posted that he would be M24 rifle “Dust off” and get his camouflage suit out of the closet. When the police approached him with a search warrant, there was an exchange of fire in which the man was fatally shot.

This is what she writes about New York Times: “This shooting occurred at a time of extraordinary polarization in American politics. The three indictments of the former president Donald J. Trump are fodder for his supporters and allies who are using his growing legal troubles to fuel their narrative about the Justice Department opposing Trump is being upgraded to knock the leading Republican out of the race for the White House. Trump and his supporters counter objections to his incendiary criticism of the Justice Department and on FBI. Only legitimate concerns would be addressed (nytimes.com, August 6.8.2023, XNUMX: “Utah Man Accused of Threatening Biden Is Killed by F.B.I.” Agent").          

Election campaign stage one: The primaries - The fight for the candidacy

Trying to write about all the details of the American election campaign would go beyond the scope of this paper. There are the inherent rules of the primaries, in which members of the respective party usually determine the candidates for the presidential election. However, there are also states, for example New Hampshire, where “independent voters” are also allowed to vote in the primaries. Experience has shown that less tactical aspects play a role, such as whether an applicant actually has a chance of being elected in the later election - whether he or she is “electable”. In the primaries, partisan and programmatic aspects are in the foreground. In case of doubt, the candidate who represents the party's ideological ideas the loudest wins. 

The antiquated system of electors should also be mentioned: Depending on their size, the states are entitled to a different number of electors in the general election. They – and not the voters – determine who becomes president. Whoever received the most votes in each state receives all of the state's electoral votes. According to this system, whoever receives the most electoral votes is elected. It is entirely possible that the person elected did not receive the majority of all votes in the country. This was e.g. B. when choosing Donald Trump the case in 2016. Hillary Clinton had achieved the majority of votes, Trump however, the majority of the electoral votes. So ultimately 5 or 6 decide swing states, who will be president of the USA.               

In summary, if you want to become President of the United States, you have to face two very different groups of voters in two elections. Voters in the primaries primarily expect specific statements from the program catalog of the respective party. The applicant for the candidacy must “serve” the members of the party. The actual choice requires a completely different strategy. If in doubt, the candidate also needs votes from population groups that the party has less of an eye on. When in doubt, a tightrope act - the candidates appear in the parties' primary debates with different focuses than later in the presidential election campaign.

The power and influence of donors and donors in election campaigns should not be overlooked, as this is an extremely expensive matter in America. Advertising in the media alone, especially on television, costs millions. This is how you plan Nikki Haley solely for pre-election advertising on television Iowa and New Hampshire to invest about 10 million dollars (cbsnews.com, November 12.11.2023, 10: “Nikki Haley’s campaign announces $XNUMX million in ad spending for Iowa and New Hampshire”). The Republican primaries in Iowa will take place on January 15.1.2024, XNUMX and in New Hampshire on January 23.1.2024rd, XNUMX.

“The fight to get into the White House is expensive,” states the Baden-Württemberg State Center for Civic Education in a dossier of questions and answers about the US election in November 2020. It gives figures on election campaign costs. According to this, almost $2016 billion was spent on the presidential election campaign by all candidates in 2,6. For 2020, the costs are estimated to be even higher: just the election campaign between Biden and Trump cost around 5,2 billion dollar.

In the USA there are no government subsidies for parties. In addition to direct donations from citizens and organizations, the so-called Super PACs play an important role as huge collection points. However, these tax regulations prohibit actively interfering in the election campaign strategy of the candidates they support. I describe that and how to do this in the section above Ron De Santis.  Lack of funds was - among other reasons - one reason that the former Vice President Mike Pence and also the senator Tim Scott from South Carolina have already given up. More of the remaining field of applicants will follow during the primary elections. 

The Republicans' first three televised debates

The Republican Party (GOP) has announced in the run-up to the Primaries four television debates between the candidates were organized. At the first debate on August 23.8.2023, XNUMX were Nikki Haley as the only applicant and 7 other applicants. On September 27.9.2023th, 7, XNUMX people stood in front of the cameras (Nikki Haley and 6 men) and on November 8.11.2023th, 5 there were still XNUMX people – Nikki Haley and 4 men. The fourth and so far last debate took place on December 7.12.2023th, XNUMX Tuscaloosa, Alabama instead of. Next to NikKi Haley stood Ron De Santis, Chris Cristie and Vivek Ramaswamy on stage. 

Jamelle Bouie from the New York Times made the following almost tongue-in-cheek conclusion after the fourth debate: “Since none of these people have a real chance of becoming the next Republican nominee for president, these ratings should be seen as a judgment about their performance rather than their suitability for the presidency look at the office. On this basis has Christie earned high marks for his ability to provide clear and straightforward answers to most questions and for his attempt to DeSantis to put pressure on them to do the same.” (nytimes.com, December 7.12.2023, XNUMX: “’He’s a Clown! And Not Even One often the Good Ones’: Winners and Losers of the G.O.P. Debate").

The clown comparison in this headline comes from Jamelle Bouie and refers to Visvek Ramaswamy. Additionally wrote Bouie: “I don't know what else you can say about someone who declares January 6th in the same sentence Inside Job (the crime committed by someone closely associated with the victim), supporting the large population exchange conspiracy theory, and ultimately suggesting that every conspiracy theory heard is true.”

Gail collins from the New York Times quoted with a view to Ramaswamy the competitor Chris Christie: “He’s the most disgusting braggart in America.”

Donald Trump stayed away from all four debates. This shows, if nothing else, what he thinks of his opponents.

The purpose of these debates, which are broadcast on television across America, is to introduce the candidates to the general public. What do they support and what do they not support? How convincingly do they appear to represent their points of view? And above all, the applicants should show that they can win in the sequence of debates and their stature, become more convincing and set themselves apart from their opponents. 

An example: After the 3rd debate on November 8.11.2023th, XNUMX in Miami judged David French from the New York Times the applicant Tim Scott as follows: “I don’t know why Scott is still in the running. Everyone else on stage has a niche. DeSantis is still Trumps main competitor and the representative (French uses the name here Avatar from the American science fiction film “Departure for Pandora”) of the new right. Haley has some momentum and represents what is meant by Reagan is still there. Christie attacked Trump. Ramaswamy invokes Trump. But what does Scott? There is nothing special about his candidacy, and there is no obvious path for him to take either DeSantis or Haley  and least Trump could surpass” (nytimes.com, November 9.11.2023, XNUMX: “’She Certainly Beat All the Boys’: Winners and Losers of the Third G.O.P. Debate”).

On 12.11.2023 has Tim Scott, the senator from South Carolina, gave up the race.

As in the previous two debates, eight columnists from the politics department took part New York Times even after the third debate on November 8.11.2023th, XNUMX Miami a balance sheet. They sat Nikki Haley ranked first in all three debates. “She certainly beat all the boys” – “She beat all the boys,” said Gail collins firmly. The temporary UN ambassador during the Trump Presidency and former governor of South Carolina used the debates - parallel to her election campaign - to make a name for herself nationwide. It now competes in surveys conducted by various institutes and universities Ron De Santis for second place, behind Trump. However, he is - still by a large margin - at the top of the Republican candidate list. “Can Nikki Haley Beat Trump?” – “can Nikki Haley Trump beat?” asked the columnist on November 18.11.2023, XNUMX Ross Douthat (nytimes.com, 18.11.2023). Trump has only in the past DeSantis attacked as its most serious competitor. It should only be a matter of time before he does too Haley takes aim. Maggie Haberman from the New York Times expects this to happen when their approval ratings rise to around 25 percent and become dangerous for him (Maggie Haberman on CNN “The Situation Room”, November 30.11.2023, XNUMX).

After the third debate on November 8.11.2023th, XNUMX, the NYT columnists Ron De Santis to 2nd place and therefore behind Haley, which she had always identified as the “winner” of the debate. Gail collins remarked to DeSantis ambiguous that it is very, very difficult to imagine him moving upwards - to anywhere. 

In third place is Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, the one so far Trump has criticized most consistently. Jamelle Bouie from the NYT writes to Christie's Application: "Chris Christie seems to know he has no realistic chance of becoming the Republican nominee.”

Next in order of New York Times follows Senator Tim Scott from South Carolina. However, he withdrew from the race on November 12.11.2023, XNUMX, a few days after the debate. For a short time, the black senator seemed like a beacon of hope for parts of the GOP. However, he was also an applicant who couldn't find an answer to the question: How to deal with Donald Trump?

Finally, fifth and last is the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. The diplomatic judgment of Gail collins about this applicant: “If you are a real outsider, you have to be interesting and, above all, loud and irritating.” Ross Douthat put it much more clearly:  “There was an attention-seeking troll.” (nytimes.com, November 9.11.2023, XNUMX: “’She Certainly Beat All the Boys’: Winners and Losers of the Third G.O.P. Debate").

The verdicts after the fourth debate

At the fourth and final debate on December 7.12.2023th, XNUMX in Tuscaloosa, Alabama were just Nikki Haley and three men there. In order of “winners” and “losers”. New York Times there were only slight shifts:

1. Chris Christie -- “This was the best Christy. He brought Ramaswamy to keep quiet, defended Haley and acknowledged the reality of Trump. The Republican primary voters should embrace people who are willing to tell them unpopular truths say. But there is very little evidence that they do.”; ( Sarah Isgur, NYT).

2. Nikki Haley -- “She knew she would be a target tonight, and she was. She held up reasonably well but she wasn't as sharp as in previous debates. Her best moments were her sharp retorts; Their greatest advantage was that their main attackers, DeSantis and Ramaswamy were grumpy and rude. She criticized Trump but only his politics and never his character”; (Peter Wehner, NYT).

4. Ron DeSantis --  "He trudged evasively and stuck to his script DeSantis through his tiring Culture Warrior number. He acts more excited about that Trump Anthony Fauci didn't fire than about that Trump was indicted for trying to overturn an election and found guilty of sexual abuse. He's trying too hard, way too hard, to make an impression on his base. DeSantis is a weak man pretending to be strong”; (Peter Wehner, NYT).

5. Vivek Ramaswamy --  “He may be hated by the other candidates, by the viewers and by the pundits but he continues to present himself as the thematic successor Trumps - a role with a large constituency in today's G.O.P." (Daniel McCarthy, NYT).

      

The basic question for all Republican candidates: How do you keep up Donald Trump?

Donald Trump has further deepened America's divisions during his time in office, and he continues to do so. Although in a whole series of election objection proceedings no evidence was found to support his constantly repeated claim that the election on November 3.11.2020rd, XNUMX was “stolen” from him, he continues to talk about the “stolen election” and many Republican voters Voters believe him. Trump He now has a whole series of criminal cases with a total of 91 charges on his hands, as well as civil cases, and yet he leads all polls by a large margin over his Republican opponents. Around Trump to be thrown out of the race for the GOP nomination DeSantis, Haley and whoever, many voters from the supporters Trumps pull over to yourself. But how can this be achieved? The basic question for Mikki Haley and the other applicants is theoretically quite simple: How do I introduce myself Trump? But in reality, no one seems to have found a sensible strategy yet. Donald Trump By staying away from all four Republican debates, he showed the others what he thought of them. Before the last debate, he called on the Republican National Committee to cancel further debates (edition.cnn.com, November 29.11.2023, 4: “Trump will attend super PAC fundraiser instead of XNUMXth GOP debate”). So what do you do about this “elephant” in the room? 

In this situation one should expect that the competitors Trump attack or at least criticize the “front runner”. But this hardly happened in the 3rd debate on November 8.11.2023th, XNUMX. “Again, the candidates did little to clearly distinguish themselves Mr. Trump to distance himself from someone who has refused to engage in direct confrontation with his rivals on the open stage.” (nytimes.com, November 9.11.2023, 6: “XNUMX Takeaways From the Republican Debate”). There may be fear behind this behavior Trump? An example of what happens to outspoken critics - although it was years ago now - is the congresswoman liz cheney from Wyoming. She represented staunchly conservative principles and was the chairwoman of the Republican Conference third in the Republican rankings in the House of Representatives. But Cheney said about Trump publicly, what others - if at all - only announced privately. Her group reprimanded her and stripped her of her position. In the 2020 elections, she has already won in the primaries against the von Trump supported Harriet Hageman verloren. liz cheney did something after that Trump denied to this day: she has admitted her defeat. 

In her recently published book “Oath and Honor – A Memoir and a Warning” She writes that she was fully aware that her criticism of the then President Trump jeopardized her political career. She did it anyway. The then MP John Rutherford from Florida accused her of being rebellious and not standing by the “brand”. Cheney's Answer: "John, our brand is the Constitution of the USA." It didn't help her at the time, because Trump had – and still has – that GOP He has a firm grip on him and his fans are “strongly” behind him. Trump has the term conservatism redefined in America and tailored to itself (nytimes.com, November 30.11.2023, 6: “XNUMX Takeaways From Liz Cheney’s Book Assailing Trump and His ‘Enablers’”).

The GOP nominee and the candidates differ in their approach to the “front runner” in several ways:

• Trump to ignore; (Mike Pence did this at the start of his campaign)
• Trump overtake on the right; (tried this Ron De Santis long time)      
• Trump attack frontally; (does this Chris Christie still)
• Trump to court; (tried this Vivek Ramaswamy)
• Move past Trump “gently”; (Nikki Haley sees itself as a representative of the nightTrump-Generation).

But all of this has helped the opponents so far Trumps few. The attempts from the Trump Reservoir Breaking out one group of voters or another always resulted in alienating a group that had previously won. 

Ron De Santis had secretly relied on the various legal proceedings Trump on the neck would weaken it. But this has not happened yet; the opposite is the case; DeSantis' Poll numbers collapsed and he had to restructure his campaign in terms of content and personnel. Pence, Scott and Burgum are no longer in the running. 

The summer of 2023 was busy Astead W Herndon, a political journalist New York Times together with a colleague with the question of whether the legal proceedings Trump couldn't be more or less fun, as criteria such as "showmanship" and "celebrity" were attractive to some voters - especially in the 2016 election campaign. However, they rejected this idea in view of the fact that the lawsuit opening dates, for example in New York, far less Trump fans had arrived than expected. During the appointments it was observed: “Trump looks miserable. And even though Republican voters have rallied behind him, and even though he is the front-runner in the race for the Republican nomination, despite mounting legal troubles, he appears to be preoccupied with the fact that his freedom is in jeopardy.” Trump has subsequently turned into the victim role and continues to speak of the “stolen election of 2020”  (nydirect@nytimes.com, - The Morning, June 15.6.2023, XNUMX: “Trump’s political style”).

From all this we can conclude: Trumps Opponents still don't know how to deal with him. The situation is still uncertain and the further development – ​​especially with regard to the problems Trump’s – is not foreseeable. At the end of November 2023, seven weeks before Primary caucuses (Caucuses) in Iowa, provides CNN in an analysis that the former president is the overwhelming favorite for the GOP presidential nomination and with a repeat of the duel with the politically ailing president Joe Biden be calculated. To the original question: “How do you keep up?” Donald Trump? " it says in the CNN analysis somewhat ambiguous: "Haley and DeSantis are trying something similar this year: they take Trump as a political giant worth mentioning…” (edition.cnn.com, November 27.11.2023, XNUMX: “With seven weeks until Iowa caucuses, Republican primary stakes sharpen”).

Michelle Cottle from the New York Times assesses the current situation similarly. Different than 2016 appears Donald Trump to a certain extent as the incumbent whose dominance appears insurmountable. In New Hampshire, where the Republican primaries will take place on January 23.1.2024, XNUMX, announced loudly CNN poll In mid-November 2023, 52 percent of Republicans eligible to vote said they had already made their final decision. The values ​​for the “pure” ones are completely different. Trump fans. Of these, 83 percent have already made their final decision. The opponents Trumps This means that only 17 percent of the “Trumpies” hit. How “rock hard” and firmly put together it is Trump block in New Hampshire is also shows that 57 percent of Republican primary voters are convinced that Trump has the best chance of winning the election in November 2024. They do not accept the doubts of his opponents that Trump is not “electable” to the general U.S. electorate. In other words: the “Trumpies” are convinced that – despite his major legal problems – he will appeal to the general electorate (edition.cnn.com, November 16.11.2023, XNUMX: “CNN Poll:  Trump holds significant lead in New Hamshire GOP primary, while Haley moves into second place”).

“But the race is not over yet, not a single vote has been cast yet. And for all of Trump's advantages, he's carrying some heavy baggage that's adding an air of instability to the primary," writes Michelle Cottle. The average values ​​of the forecasts for New Hampshire waren on December 18.12.2023, XNUMX as follows: 

Trump 43,5%;  Haley 18,9%;  DeSantis  10,2%;  Christie  12,3%  and  Ramaswamy  7,3%.

Michelle Cottle sees DeSantis in a bad position: “If he is in Iowa (The primary elections will take place there on January 15.1.2024, XNUMX) both behind Trump as well as behind Haley lands and possibly in New Hampshire is defeated a second time - where he is only in fourth place according to the polls - is his claim (compared to Trump) being the more electable one is done.” Cottle keeps the message Haley's, to be the face of a new generation, unencumbered by Trumpian drama as the better path to success. “However, whether she will reach many Republicans is the million-dollar question.”  nytimes.com, November 25.11.2023, XNUMX: “Why the Next Seven Weeks Are So Critical in the Race for President”).

To put it in Swabian terms: we don't know anything precise. But in Iowa and New Hampshire decisive steps are being taken for the Republican candidacy.  

…And you’re out! – Mike Pence, a tragic figure in Trumps orbit

Mike Pence, the former Vice President under Donald Trump deserves a few words of farewell. He has Trump Served faithfully and honestly for four years - in the truest sense of the word - and in the end he became a tragic figure. Mike Pence, a devout evangelical Christian, stood as governor of Indiana just in a close race for re-election and was honored to be in 2016 Donald Trump asked him whether he would be willing to become his “running mate”. After a few days of consideration and consultation with his wife Karen, After consultations with political friends and advisers and, he said, after times of prayer, he agreed to serve and accepted the offer Trumps to become Vice President of the USA  (nytimes.com, October 29.10.2023, XNUMX: “The Devil’s Bargain Pence Couldn’t Escape”). Adam Nagourney, the author of the NYT report, also mentions the title of the Pence memoirs: “So Help Me God.” Undoubtedly has pence chose this title with full conviction. And Nagourney also clearly describes the ambivalent relationship between pence zu Trump: He never felt entirely comfortable with the carefree manners Trump, that playboy Queens, Businessman and casino operator whose business is in the Democratic world New York flourished successfully. 

Mike Pence brought a significant share of business into the company at that time “Trump Presidency” one: The votes of the evangelicals, the group of voters in America who were politically inclined towards the Republicans, but who also Donald Trump and initially couldn't do anything with his escapades. “Now he had a Sherpa who could guide him and for Trumps Credibility was ensured and this played a big role in 2016,” says Tim Phillips, a conservative and close friend and advisor of Pence. The Vice President may have tried Trump none of this has been made public. On the contrary: probably with stomach cramps Mike Pence kept silent or Trump even defended. I remember the pictures on TV: pence was responsible for the topic of “Corona” and regularly appeared in front of the cameras with relevant experts. After some time you have to Trump recognized the importance of these public appearances and took over the “show”. Stood with a straight face Mike Pence often there, including in that press conference Trump asked the experts whether it would help to inject dishwashing liquid against Corona...

Adam Nagourney writes in his NYT article, Pence I never learned how to relate to myself Trump and identifies deep cultural and personal differences between the taciturn Midwestern governor and the flashy one New Yorkers, who never plays by the same political rules as Pence. The asymmetrical political relationship is broken Trump- after the legal appeal channels against the results of the presidential election on November 3.11.2020, XNUMX had been exhausted - began to implement a perfidious plan in which the vice president was intended to play a decisive role. The one from Trumps lawyer Kenneth Chesebro The hatched plan was already used in the second impeachment trial Trump publicly known and now plays primarily in criminal proceedings Georgia ./. Trump and others an essential role because of the attempt to overturn the 2020 election results. The lawyers Kenneth Chesebro, Sidney powell and Jenna Ellis have in the process Georgia has already entered a guilty plea and agreed to cooperate with the prosecution. 

Roughly described should be followed Chesebros Plan different states – among others Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and others—in addition to the election results reported on the prescribed date Bidens a second electoral slate (Alternate Elector Slate) in favor of Trump in Washington dc Submit. pence should then, in his capacity as President of the Senate, when the results from the states are formally determined on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX, the results from the states with “duplicate reporting” either in favor of Trump evaluate or reject both messages and thus Trump To provide time for further legal challenges (nytimes.com, August 8.8.2023, XNUMX: “Previously Secret Memo Laid Out Strategy for Trump to Overturn Biden’s Win”). Mike Pence however, has steadfastly refused to play this dubious game. The further course of history is known: at the event on January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX in Washington dc demanded Trump called on his supporters to march to the Capitol and fight “like hell” to save their country. During the storming of the Capitol, they chanted Trump supporter "Hillside Mike Pence" and he, along with other deputies, had to be taken to a safe place via a back staircase at risk of his life. In the subsequent second impeachment trial, only 7 Republican senators voted Trump found guilty; too little to exclude him from holding public office in the future. If he wins the 2024 election, he could become president of the United States again and possibly pardon himself.  

Because of the “false electoral lists”, charges were brought against 2023 Republicans in July 16 who had been placed on the fake lists. A grand jury in Nevada filed charges against 6.12.2023 Republicans on December 6, 9 for forgery and submitting false documents. In the worst case scenario, you could face 15 years in prison and a $000 fine. Kenneth Chesebro, The person who hatched this plan is called as a witness. He has a similar procedure in Georgia admitted his guilt and agreed to cooperate with the prosecution. A tricky situation for the defendants: the “inventor” of the scam is facing them as a key witness. There will be little to hide in the process (nytimes.com, December 6.12.2023, 2020: “Nevada Charges Republican Party Leaders in XNUMX Fake Elector Scheme”).

On December 6.12.2023, 10, a corresponding procedure was initiated against XNUMX “false electors” from the Republican Party Wisconsin ended with a comparison. The 10 Republicans agreed not to serve as electors in the 2024 election and accepted the victory of biden No penalties were imposed (nytimes.com, December 6.12.2023, 2020: “Fake Trump Electors in Wisconsin Accept Biden’s XNUMX Win in Settlement”).  

Mike Pence For a long time it was difficult to express itself publicly Trump to distance himself, even though he had already mocked him by telephone on New Year's Day 2021 with the words "You are too honest". In the later election campaign pence Sell ​​T-shirts with “Too Honest” printed on them (sueddeutsche.de, August 6.8.2023, 2.8.2023: “Trump’s former helper is now a dangerous key witness”). As a precautionary measure, even before he had received a summons to appear in federal court, he defended himself against it. It wasn't until August XNUMX, XNUMX that he declared that the American public needed to know that he was Trump and his advisors urged to overturn the election results. In a campaign speech that day, he put it very broadly: "Anyone who puts themselves above the Constitution should never be president of the United States." He replied Trump, he has pity on him pence who can't get his foot on the ground in his attempt to become president (nytimes.com, August 3.8.2023, XNUMX: “Pence Says Trump Pushed Him ‘Essentially to Overturn the Election’”). In fact it came Pence campaign never really got going. He gave up the race on October 28.10.2023, XNUMX. 

You have to take it with you afterwards Mike Pence have pity? Bret stephens from the New York Times put it this way: "I'm sorry but I like all the talk about "Mike Pence is a hero” is not. He was more than four years Trumps faithful “enabler,” his beard for the evangelicals, his ever-nodding “yes man.” He was silent for eight weeks after the 2020 election when his boss was busy denying the results... And if pence on January 6.1th If he had tried to overturn the election, he would now have a lawsuit on his own.” (nytimes.com, 7.8.2023: Gail collins and Bret stephens – The dialogue: “If Mike Pence Is a Big Hero, We’re in Big Trouble”). Pity or a hero? Trump has at pence confirmed that someone from Trump is accepted as long as it pleases the boss. If not, he becomes a tragic figure Trumps Orbit.

More applicants drop out

Said goodbye on December 4.12.2023th, XNUMX Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota out of the race for the Republican nomination. They also got out Will Hurd, the former congressman Texas and Larry Elder, the conservative talk radio host California (nytimes.com, December 4.12.2023, XNUMX: “Doug Burgum, Wealthy North Dakota Governor, Ends White House Run”). Will Hurd  left a message worth considering: "Trump's presidential candidacy is based on trying to stay out of jail and get his supporters to pay his bills" (sueddeutsche.de, August 2.8.2023, XNUMX: “Anyone who puts themselves above the Constitution should never be President of the United States”). Haven't been there for a long time Perry Johnson, a businessman Michigan and Francis Suárez, the mayor of Miami. On November 12.11.2023th, XNUMX also has Tim Scott, the African-American senator South Carolina discontinued his campaign.

Republican party friends are now guessing Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, also to get out of the race because he could Ron De Santis and Nikki Haley in the area code in New Hampshire in the race against Donald Trump Take away votes. But Christie will probably be in New Hampshire still test out his standing, because the so-called independents are allowed to vote in the primary and this could be for Christie be advantageous (nytimes.com, December 4.12.2023, XNUMX: “Some Republicans Have a Blunt Message for Chris Christie: Drop Out”). He will stay in the race at least until the primaries to see what is still “in it” for him.

Ron DeSantis – A fading star

It's running in the campaign of Ron De Santis hasn't been around for some time. When he won re-election as governor of 2020 Florida won by a landslide, he became known nationwide and was considered the rising star of the Republicans for the time afterward Trump; and DeSantis let it be known that he has higher ambitions. Some advised him to wait until 2028 to run for the presidency, when Trump is no longer there. But DeSantis threw the hat into the ring on May 24.5.2023, XNUMX. At first everything seemed to be going well for him; DeSantis was also seen as a beacon of hope for the Republicans Trump didn't want. But now, a few weeks before the first primary elections Iowa and New Hampshire It is clear that his campaign has had little effect so far. In Iowa he is far behind Trump and in New Hampshire, where the Republicans will vote on January 23.1.2024, XNUMX Nikki Haley passed him with 18,9 percent and he is only in third place with 10,2 percent. A whole range of reasons are given in the press. 

The relation between DeSantis and Trump is tense. Before the first gubernatorial election on November 6.11.2018, XNUMX Trump made an endorsement for him. Went in 2020 DeSantis at a distance – he needed Trump no more and he takes offense at something like that. He calls his current rival “DeSanctimonious” (the hypocrite) and covers him with ridicule. While DeSantis in August 2023 on the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines campaigned, left Trump a plane with its advertising is circling above the site. And another plane should be mentioned, the one above State Fair grounds an advertising banner read: “Be Likable Ron!” was written on it and thus referred to a weakness of DeSantis, who often appears “wooden” and aloof in his appearances. The Council: "Be Likable Ron!” comes from the Republican congressman Matt Gaetz, of DeSantis 2018 prepared for the gubernatorial election. It is not known who flew this plane (thedailybeast.com, 12.8.2023).

Is programmatic Ron De Santis to be attributed to the right wing of the Republican Party. During his time as a member of the House of Representatives, he belonged to the conservative group Freedom Caucus at. In Florida With the support of the Republican majority in the state legislature, he began implementing a strictly socially conservative agenda: A law prohibits abortion from the 6th week - women often do not know that they are pregnant at that point. New state rules stipulate that preschools and schools are not allowed to cover LGBTQ topics, the so-called Don’t Say Gay – law. A campaign was launched under the heading “Strengthening Parental Rights” that requires school libraries to sort out certain books or keep them locked up. The accusation of censorship is in the air. During his performances he gave himself DeSantis as a consistent champion of the Culture War against the woke Mind Virus, which he described as a “form of cultural Marxism” – whatever that means. DeSantis announced: "Florida is where Woke goes to die” – loosely translated: “Florida shall Woke hunt down.” A definition of the catchphrase  “woke” he didn't deliver. (I wrote about this topic in my post “Culture War – The Battle for Americans’ Thoughts and Feelings” reported on this blog on May 30.5.2023, XNUMX).

But: What in Florida arrived, apparently has in the national presidential campaign of DeSantis not quite drawn. “Woke” and the fight against “Woke” was for some conservative politicians - not least for Ron De Santis - to the common metaphor to express their dislike of “left-wing” views race, gender and sexuality to announce, but - that's how the New York Times stated: “The fight against “woke” probably has less political impact than they think.” That DeSantis with the battle cry “woke” against Disneyland in Florida went into the field, acknowledged Christy Boyd (55) from Pennsylvania with the note: “If you don’t like what Disney do, don’t go. The government is not responsible for this.”  (nytimes.com, August 6.8.2023, XNUMX: “Are G.O.P. Voters Tiring the War on ‘Wokeness’?”). The assumption of New York Times is determined by a result of the Times/Siena survey from July 2023, in which potential voters in the Republican primaries across the USA were surveyed. Given a hypothetical election alternative between a candidate focused on “fighting radical woke ideology” and a candidate focused on “law and order on our streets and at the border,” only 24 percent voted for him “Woke Fighter” out of. This is particularly problematic for Ron DeSanis, that among these is aimed at combating “woke” programmed voters 61 percent Trump preferred and only 36 percent were in favor DeSantis pronounced (nytimes.com, July 31.7.2023, XNUMX: “Trump Crushing DeSantis and G.O.P. Rivals, Times/Siena Poll Finds”).

In addition, from the DeSantis campaign repeated financial problems. “Never Back Down” the Super PAC, the DeSantis supported, had almost $2023 million in cash on hand at the end of June 97. A few weeks later, on August 23.8rd. – the day of the 1st Republican debate in Milwaukee, WI – explained Jeff Roe, the top strategist of “Never back down“, a group of donors said they urgently needed $50 million. A large part of this amount should be spent by the 2nd debate on September 27.9.2023, XNUMX. Just for the campaign Iowa, where the first primary elections will take place on January 15.1.2024, 5, they want to spend $XNUMX million a month because DeSantis must Trump in the next 60 days and “now” set themselves apart from the rest of their rivals. 

But despite high campaign spending, it was by then for DeSantis didn't go well. The New York Times reported the following forecast numbers to the Republican electorate on August 4.8.2023, XNUMX:

• Iowa: Trump 44%, DeSantis 20%, Scott 9%, Ramaswamy 5%, Haley  4%,  Pence  3%,  Burgum and Christie 1% each.
• USA numbers: Trump 54%, DeSantis 17%, all others 3% or less.

The New York Times notes that the efforts of DeSantis in Iowa had a certain effect, but the challenge Trump To beat here depends on a whole range of factors (nytimes.com, August 4.8.2023, XNUMX: “Trump Leads G.O.P. in Iowa, but His Hold is Less Dominant”).

On December 1.8.2023, XNUMX the NYT: “The group behind Ron De Santis has more money than those that rivals – including Trump- support. Spending a lot of money hasn't benefited his position so far." (nytimes.com, August 1.8.2023, 34: “DeSantis’s Super PAC Burned Through $XNUMX Million as He Slid in Polls”).

The details of this “big spender” are covered in an article by NYT from December 22.12.2023, XNUMX. “Never Back Down” had the election advertising in the first primary election states (Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada) raised on a large scale. With 100 paid full-time employees and 37 volunteers, potential Republican primary voters were systematically visited - often several times - and spoken to at the front door. Alone in Iowa Election workers knocked on front doors more than 801 times. The preparation of these activities was complex and time-consuming. The helpers had to start with the biography of Ron De Santis and become familiar with his family; his political activities as governor of Florida study and practice the practice of “knocking on front doors”. The main aim of these activities was and is to motivate potential Republican voters who have not yet made up their minds to go to the primaries. All in all: a tedious undertaking that also causes mishaps, which are of course exploited by opponents and the media. The “door knockers” don’t all come from there Iowa but from far away, perhaps from California or Georgia; this can lead to difficulties. I found the reference in particularly amusing NYT report, that “door knocker” the DeSantis squad revealed that they actually Trump consider him to be the better candidate. 

A sentence in the report indicates the problem Ron De Santis in his campaign – and not just in Iowa— is struggling: “In fact, no amount of door-knocking could be the biggest challenge DeSantis can overcome: He is not Donald Trump. " A probably ironic statement. But it also applies to Niki Haley and the remaining candidates still in the running (nytimes.com, December 22.12.2023, XNUMX: “How DeSantis’s Ambitious, Costly Ground Game Has Sputtered”). 

A few days before Christmas there was some bad news for them DeSantis campaign: Occurred on December 16.12.2023, XNUMX Jeff Roe, the chief strategist of the Super PAC “Never Back Down” back. He is not the first person to resign or be fired, likely due to internal disagreements.  Donald Trump wrote about it on his social media channel “Truth Social”: "Jeff Roe is out – GAME OVER for DeSanctimonious” – “Jeff Roe is gone - the game is over for DeSanctimonious" (nytimes.com, December 16.12/17.12.2023, XNUMX: “Jeff Roe, Top Strategist for Star-Crossed DeSantis Super PAC, Resigns”).

The Super PAC has that DeSantis campaign taken

As already announced, I now want to describe how the Super PAC ““Never Back Down” in the summer of 2023 step by step the direction of the DeSantis campaign took over. Not least a tax balancing act that could have consequences, because a Super PAC is a large fund-raising agency and is entitled to finance, above all, expensive advertising campaigns. However, he is prohibited from determining the tactical direction of an election campaign. In the connection of DeSantis and “Never Back Down” The question already arises as to what it means that the Super PAC organizes the election campaign events DeSantis is there as a “special guest”? In the New York Times it is noted that “Never Back Down” do something that is happening for the first time in American politics: the group ““Never Back Down” organize almost all areas of the presidential campaign, although she is prohibited by tax law from contributing to the strategy DeSantis and his team coordinated. “A top dance around the regulations on campaign financing,” said the New York Times to this. Already in July 2023 DeSantis more than a third laid off their teams. Among the election campaign priorities was ““Never Back Down” potential donors – and therefore also the DeSantis campaign know through a memo that they want people from the Trump camp with content that appeals to them: common sense, perseverance and stability and a leader with a vision, a family and with Casey. Casey desantis, the wife of Ron De Santis mentioned Jeff Roe In this memo, which serves as a strategy instruction, it is not without reason: As a former television presenter, she is in a better position to sell the candidate to the electorate than the sometimes somewhat wooden candidate himself. And actually she stepped up Ron and Casey desantis together with two of her three children in August 2023 Iowa State Fair in Des Moines together.

Jeff Roes Memo for the backers was basically a short stage direction to the DeSantis team. But how could this reach the addressee without violating the tax regulations for the Super PAC? The New York Times learned this from an anonymous source: Jeff Roe had posted the memo on his company's website. 

Mr DeSantis was angry about it (nytimes.com, August 31.8.2023, 50: “DeSantis Super PAC’s urgent plea to donors:  ‘We need XNUMX million bucks’”). 

Ron De Santis lurches

Big programmatic speeches are rarely given in the US election campaign. For the candidate, it is more about reaching as many voters as possible personally, making a good impression in each appearance and setting themselves apart from their political opponents through small but easily understandable pinpricks; In other words, to appear convincing as a person.

After launching his campaign in spring 2023, the governor of Florida can't get enough of the term “woke” in the Culture War to pull. But his calls against it were of use “Wokeness” off quickly; The survey numbers didn't get any better for him, on the contrary: the gap closed Donald Trump became bigger, not least because DeSantis made tactical mistakes. The New York Times wrote from “Unforced Errors” in early July 2023. At the time lay DeSantis about 30 points behind Trump, and the spokesman for his super PAC publicly acknowledged that Trump the absolute “front runner” and DeSantis an “uphill battle” – a battle against the mountain. So his team had to counter allegations - including from the Republican side - because DeSantis shared a provocative video on social media that was originally posted by someone else Twitter user mixed together with LGBTQ images and against Trump had been used. This older video was widely viewed as a “homophobic piece of work.” It begins with a scene from 2016 in which Trump says he will do everything in his power to protect LGBTQ people. 

The DeSantis team pimped up the video even further, drew a connecting line to the one I presented in this paper “Verdict #2” (“Further restrictions on LGBTQ rights”) and showed at the end Ron De Santis with sparkling eyes and the headline: “The Pride event in St. Cloud was canceled after DeSantis signed the Child Protection Act.” (The term Pride event refers to the Pride month June in which the LGBTQ community promotes tolerance and diversity). 

This election campaign campaign - pointedly directed against Trump - tried to highlight the big difference between DeSantis and Trump to highlight:  “Trump wants to protect the LGBTQ but DeSantis protects the children.” But the whole thing went completely wrong DeSantis drew criticism from both Democrats and Republicans. Sarah Longwell, a moderate political strategist wrote on Twitter: “The advisors who think it is effective,  Trump “Overtaking on the right” in this way should be fired.” Adam kinzinger, the former Republican congressman and outspoken Trump critics threw dem DeSantis team before: “Scandal after scandal is the only way these guys can run their election campaign” (nytimes.com, July 1.7.2023, XNUMX: “DeSantis, Seeking Attention, Uses L.G.B.T.Q. “Issue to Attack Trump”).

And in between the weather was on the other side: Als DeSantis on Independence Day (July 4, 2023) in a parade in New Hampshire, marched in that state with an early primary election date, a storm broke out and the television broadcast images of the candidate dripping.  

In an interim report, the New York Times determined that DeSantis did not present himself as a “naturally gifted campaigner” and he did not manage to climb up in the polls. “His carefully choreographed public appearances have provided little fodder for headlines after his campaign until recently shielded him from potential unplanned unpleasant encounters with voters and the media. “Describes it in just a few words New York Times the difference between Trump and DeSantis: "Mr. Trump, "The gifted showman always succeeds in attracting media attention and coverage, diverting it away from his rivals and also smothering other campaigns' attempts before they become a serious threat." (nytimes.com, July 5.7.2023, XNUMX: “DeSantis Campaign Continues to Struggle to Find It’s Footing”).

No doubt, his advisors and his opponents know his weaknesses DeSantis, when he is attacked in a debate. “DeSantis can hardly digest blows,” says a chief strategist for the Democrats in the NYT  quoted. His fundamental problem in a conversation is that he either attacks or explains. He never tells a story. “He never reaches people's hearts.” His advisors therefore recommended that he speak out “likable” (lovable, likeable) to write in capital letters on his notepad (nytimes.com, August 18.8.2023, XNUMX: “For DeSantis, an Unforced Error Amplifies a Daunting Debate Challenge.”).

Anyone who followed the media reports about the election campaign in the USA in July and August 2023 could, indeed had to, come to the conclusion that the campaign of Ron De Santis, the Republicans' former hope, is in a dead end. DeSantis had financial and personnel problems and its strategic and programmatic approach had no effect. A survey by University of New Hampshire showed for this state in which the Republican primaries will take place on January 23.1.2024, XNUMX, Donald Trump at the top with 37 percentage points, followed by DeSantis with 27 percent. Published on July 31.7.2023, XNUMX New York Times the numbers of their Times/Siena poll for the entire United States. Accordingly, Republican voters were in the lead Donald Trump with 54 percent, followed by DeSantis with 17 percent. Trump  At the end of July 2023, he had a whopping lead of 37 percent over the governor of Florida. Nikki Haley was in 3th place at the time with 5 percent. In the meantime she has improved even further (nytimes.com, July 31.7.2023, XNUMX: “Trump Crushing DeSantis and G.O.P. Rivals, Times/Siena Poll Finds”). The Süddeutsche Zeitung headed her report on the Times/Siena poll with: “Wrong target group, wrong strategy” and explained: “On the one hand, given the stagnating surveys, it was urgently necessary to change something, on the other hand, it is now even clearer that DeSantis has no charisma whatsoever. That's not ideal for a presidential candidate, to say the least. In addition, his team has decided that the governor will no longer focus on combating a rather vague phenomenon like "the 'woke' “America”, but that he also talks about concrete politics every now and then.”  (sueddeutsche.de, August 1.8.2023, XNUMX: “Wrong target group, wrong strategy”).

On December 8.8.2023, XNUMX the New York Times dass Governor DeSantis his troop erneut mixed up – for the third time in less than a month: the previous manager General Peck was fired and replaced with a loyalist from the governor's office. He had already reduced the number of staff in his campaign by a third after fundraising income fell. DeSantis, so that New York Times still looking for a team and a political message that goes with Donald Trump could keep up (nytimes.com, August 8.8.2023, XNUMX: “DeSantis Upends Campaign Leadership as Trump Looms and Urgency Grows”). A few days earlier it said New York Times the following depressing sentence: “Even allies have noted that his campaign has so far failed to find a coherent message about why voters are for him and not for Trump should be correct (nytimes.com, July 30.7.2023, XNUMX: “DeSantis Jabs at Trump’s Legal Trouble as He Resets His Campaign”). To put it bluntly: DeSantis has still not found an answer to the million-dollar question: How and with what programmatic approach can you become a conservative Republican? Trump and also take part of his electorate with him?

This is particularly difficult for them Trump opponents, after he had not taken part in any of the four Republican debates to date. Here is an example that DeSantis' Difficulties with the Trump issue clarified: In an interview with Jake Tapper, a star presenter from CNN tried on July 17.7.2023, XNUMX DeSantis, against Trump to put a few delicate pinpricks: This should have taken a more clear stand on January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX to stop the insurrection at the Capitol (nytimes.com, July 18.7.2023, 30.7.2023: “DeSantis, in Rare CNN Interview, Defends His Struggling Campaign”). On July XNUMX, XNUMX he took up the topic Trump impeachment again and formulated the ambiguous sentence in front of reporters: Would have Trump "If the swamp were dried up, as he once promised, he wouldn't be in the ink he is in today." (nytimes.com, July 30.7.2023, XNUMX: “DeSantis Jabs at Trump’s Legal Trouble as He Resets His Campaign”). And finally, as if he had Trump never criticized in the slightest because of his behavior on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX, explained DeSantis on August 4.8.2023, XNUMX, he will Trump pardon if he is convicted of his attempts to overturn the 2020 election (nytimes.com, August 4.8.2023, 2020: “DeSantis Dismisses Trump’s XNUMX Election Theories as False”).

It would be absolutely presumptuous if I tried to do so from a distance DeSantis and give advice to others on how to cope Trump should handle. But I wonder how effective it can be if DeSantis in view of the 91 charges against Trump explains: “I mean it’s not fair,” and with that Trump still confirmed in his victim role? So he won't let anyone out Trump pool pull over to you. To do this he would have to find a clearer approach, this or that Trump voters makes you think (nytimes.com, December 24.12.2023, 2023: “What Went Wrong for Ron DeSantis in XNUMX”). 

“What went wrong…?” Described in a detailed report Shane Goldmacher, Nicholas Nehamas and the experienced one NYT journalist Maggie Haberman the diverse problems of the DeSantis campaign. They described the developments between the DeSantis team and the Super PAC “Never Back Down” as a “slow-motion implosion” that left even the most ardent supporters empty and demoralized. Jeff Roe from “Never Back Down” had already darkly predicted in June 2023: “New Hampshire is where campaigns die.”

In any case, it is interesting and exciting to follow the American election campaign from a distance. It will later serve – in all its details – as a study object for German election researchers and strategists. The extraordinary thing about what's happening in the US right now is that a very promising candidate is saddled with a big bag of charges. The Republican opponents are trying - each in their own way - Trump to be treated gently so as not to upset his reservoir of voters. However, they can only win the candidacy if they manage to “siphon” voters from this reservoir. An unprecedented balancing act. Have to at some point Haley & Co however the Trump phalanx convincingly explain why Trump will not be allowed to become President of the United States again. Mike Pence and Tim Scott and others are now out of the running. After the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire the ranks are likely to continue to thin.

Ron De Santis changes its program focus

In Florida did it work. There has Ron De Santis as governor with the help of the Republican majority in the state legislature Culture War Laws say goodbye. He entered the race for the Republican presidential nomination with a similar agenda. Although he already knew around the middle of 2023 that he had to change the content of his election campaign, on July 17.7.2023, XNUMX he did Tega Cay, South Carolina once again its long “worn topics” presented: The alleged "indoctrination" of children by "left-wing" teachers, the need to deploy the military to the southern border to stop the "invasion of our country" and also how much he Mr. Trump disappointed that he Dr. Anthony S. Fauci didn't fire for fighting Covid-19 was partly responsible. 

A day later he moved to an airplane hangar outside of Columbia, South Carolina once again his old roller against everything he considered “woke” Damn: He railed against the programs to strengthen diversity, equity and inclusion and the “political Woke actions” such as drag shows - the Ministry of Defense had already banned these a month earlier. He also proposed reinstating Trump's ban on hiring transgender sailors, soldiers and Marines and promised to stop funding the cost of gender reassignment surgery for active-duty service members. 

rose particularly violently DeSantisam on the same day as part of an interview with CNN again in the Culture War a. As the moderator Jake Tapper When asked how he planned to treat the approximately 1 million transgender adults in America, DeSantis dodged the question, citing a “very, very small percentage of the population. “I would respect everyone but I wouldn't turn society upside down.” These statements show how difficult it is DeSantis did and still does, the little meaningful ones Culture War themes to give up. He made a significant contribution to the spirits of... Culture War to let out the bottle, which have now spread in the Republican-controlled states.

Poker for Ukraine

Im CNN interview on July 18.7.2023, XNUMX Jake Tapper The question of providing additional funds to Ukraine was also raised. For weeks, Republicans in Congress have been blocking the release of additional funds that Ukraine urgently needs. DeSantis Here too, the answer was very vague: “The goal should be a sustainable and lasting peace in Europe, a peace that does not reward aggression.” As a foreign policy expert Ron De Santis never appeared. His answer sounds as vague and dangerous as the statement Trump, As US President, he could end the Ukraine war in one day.

Two reports in the Heilbronn voice dated December 12.12.2023, 12.12.2023 make it clear that the USA and the EU are in the same predicament when it comes to supporting Ukraine and are in danger of losing their geopolitical credibility. It was on December XNUMXth, XNUMX Volodymyr Zelenskyy in again Washington D.C., to urge the urgency of further military aid. On the same day took place in Washington at the conservative institution Heritage Foundation a meeting was held to discuss a program for a renewed TrumpPresidency went. The Heilbronn voice quoted from a report in the British newspaper Guardian, after which the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the event of Heritage Foundation was there to discuss with Republican members of Congress the final termination of aid to Ukraine (Heilbronn voice, December 12.12.2023, XNUMX: “Desperate Mission”). What an idea: The Hungarian is making world politics in America against the EU as Putin's “submarine”?

In the same issue of Heilbronn voice reports the European correspondent Katrin Pribyl about the summit meeting of EU heads of state and government in Brussels planned for December 14.12.2023, 50, on the agenda of which, among other things, the release of a further XNUMX billion euros to the Ukraine was standing. This requires unanimity, but the Hungarian Prime Minister has announced that he will not agree (Heilbronn voice, December 12.12.2023, XNUMX: “Why the summit could really fail”). Orban did not give in; A decision on the EU's billions in aid is to be made at a special summit in January 2024.

What a crazy picture: Viktor Orban - Katrin Pribyl calls him the “European troublemaker in chief” in their report and “Putin's Trojan Horse in the EU – is in America and Europe, the of Putin to let attacked Ukraine jump over the sword. If he succeeded, he would certainly be a guest of honor at the victory parade Moscow be invited. Can Scholz's coffee break trick work again in January?

In an election event - also on December 12.12.2023, XNUMX - DeSantisn also commented on and played in the debate about American aid to Ukraine Israel and the Ukraine against each other: Israel, the reliable ally of the USA in the Middle East, is alone there and needs the support of the USA. The Ukraine On the other hand, Europe has and is therefore no longer dependent on the USA. DeSantis This repeats the instructions from the leadership of the GOP and also those from Trump, who is ready - perhaps also out of personal revenge Zelenskyj—Putin to give a free hand in this conflict. There is also cause for concern that Americans' willingness to support the Ukraine threatens to tip over. 55 percent of Americans believe Congress should not approve further aid; 51 percent say the US has done enough. At a previous one CNN poll in July 2023, 45 percent of Americans said Congress should approve more aid; At the time, 48 percent said the US should do more. In February 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion, 62 percent still thought the USA should do more (edition.cnn.com, August 4.8.2023, XNUMX: “CNN Poll: Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine in war with Russia”).

It is surprising that the internationalists and experienced foreign policy experts of the Republicans in the Senate have agreed to the short-sighted game of the extreme wing in Congress. He is aiming for a “barter deal” with the Democrats, in which more Ukraine help with concessions on migration policy and the further expansion of border facilities Mexico be linked. “The President of the Ukraine made an urgent request to America for more help for his country in the fight against Russia, but was told by Republicans that his problems were not their focus." (nytimes.com, December 12.12.2023, XNUMX: “Republicans Sideline Zelensky With Border Demands, Imperiling Aid Package”). And also in Washington the novel - just like in Brussels – about further help for the Ukraine no decision was made before the Christmas break.

Republicans like the Senator Mitch McConnell know that it is in Ukraine War about much more than the “delivery” of parts or the whole Ukraine an Russia is about a geostrategic conflict - not between "East" and "West" as before - but between autocratic and democratically governed countries. Adrienne Watson, The spokeswoman for the US National Security Council commented on the development of the war: “Russia is watching the debate in Congress very closely.” Other experts added that Putin believes that his strategy of wearing down the West is slowly being successful (nytimes.com, December 12.12.2023, XNUMX: “Russia Has Suffered Staggering High Losses, U.S. Report Says”).

Mike Johnson, the recently elected new one speakers of the house who repeatedly opposes help for them Ukraine voted, blamed that White House, it failed to set a clear course for victory Ukraine to explain how this had been demanded by Republicans as a prerequisite for further aid. The Republican Senator Lindsay graham from South Carolina declared President Zelenskyj during his visit Washington: “There is a problem here. It has nothing to do with you" (nytimes.com, December 12.12.2023, XNUMX: “Biden Says Russia Is Celebrating U.S.” Divisions Over Providing Aid to Ukraine”). The Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley from Oregon reminded Republicans of the prehistory of World War II: “Appeasement would be a big mistake. We must not follow Chamberlain's footsteps." (CNN, December 12.12.2023, XNUMX: “State of the Race”).

And what else?

At the end of the first part of this paper, a look at various other political content DeSantis campaign: On July 31.7.2, 23, the governor of Florida presented his “Political Plan for the American Economy.” The main focuses of the plan are:

• Repeal of President's Climate Change Policy Biden; Continued focus on fossil energy;
• reducing relations with China;
• Cutting government spending.

(Source: sueddeutsche.de, August 1.8.2023, XNUMX: “Wrong target group, wrong strategy”).

Especially when it comes to the issue of climate change Ron De Santis given his preference for fossil fuels, he is always in need of explanation. Florida is a state with a lot of nature worth protecting; Florida but is also increasingly affected by the consequences of climate change. The hurricanes coming from the Caribbean are becoming more powerful and more frequent.

During his campaign for governor in 2018 DeSantis promised, not just the waters and the Everglades of Florida to protect, he had also recognized that people are contributing to the exacerbation of climate change, which is now increasingly threatening them. Meanwhile, scientists continue to point out that the growing strength of hurricanes Florida ravages caused by man-made global warming, DeSantis However, has retreated to the old Republican line: climate change is a natural phenomenon and is not accelerated by human behavior - such as burning fossil energy. In August 2023, when asked about his climate plan, he replied: “I will Joe Bidens “Tearing up the green New Deal.” DeSantis wants the nature and environment in Florida protect and preserve, because swimming, boating, fishing and hunting are very popular and profitable here. But he also wants to increase domestic oil and gas production and combat the mandatory use of electric vehicles.

Behind such ideas lies the fact that in the United States the causes of climate change and what should be done about it are often not treated as scientific questions but are defined politically. About half of the American population believes that climate change is “mostly” caused by human activity. However, the attitudes of supporters of the two political parties show a completely different picture: only 22 percent of Republicans believe climate change is man-made; among Democrats it is 75 percent. 

DeSantis It should be clear that, given society's deep divisions on the issue of climate change, he will not be able to score points with the Republican electorate with forced climate policy. The New York Times reports: “Speaking in the election campaign DeSantis not often about what environmental policies he would make as president. In general terms, he suggests that it would be good to reduce fossil fuel emissions and then adds that the free market is better suited to this than government initiatives. In other words: DeSantis either has no own climate policy ideas or deliberately doesn't talk about it (nytimes.com, September 8.9.2023, XNUMX: “DeSantis, Leading a State Menaced by Climate Change, Shrugs Off the Threat”).

The complexity of the climate policy challenges Florida is presented in a comprehensive report by the New York Times described. It involves the docking of large cruise ships in the port of Key West and the related questions and problems. (They will be similar in too Venice visible). In 2020, environmental activists in the region of Key West introduced three initiatives with the aim of better protecting the surrounding sea and limiting the number of passengers on cruise ships to 1 people per day. Before Corona have almost 1 million passengers on cruise ships every year Key West visited; not least an employment and income factor for the island. However, the state legislature — with the approval of Gov DeSantis – the restrictions were lifted a year later. Meanwhile, a well-heeled hotel owner, who also owns one of the piers Key West operates, applied to the state to be allowed to expand the port in order to be able to serve even larger ships with higher numbers of passengers. The decision on this is piquant for the governor, not least because various companies owned by the private pier owner DeSantis campaign donated almost $1 million. Things became even more complicated when the environmental organization Safer Cleaner Ships discovered that the company had provided false information about its income and thereby avoided higher taxes and disembarkation fees. Upon request from the New York Times was informed by the state that the matter had been investigated and would not be pursued further.

Also regarding the size of the in Key West There are unanswered questions when docking cruise ships. In the past, larger ships came to the piers than the existing contracts permitted. The state granted temporary permission for this last year. The current proposal to allow larger ships is intended to solve this problem. The Governor wanted to decide on this with his cabinet in December 2023 (nytimes.com, November 25.11.2023, XNUMX: “DeSantis Faces Critical Decisions on Cruise Ships in Key West”). (About a new decision Florida No reference could be found on the internet to date).

How much Ron De Santis tried again and again, the “better TrumpHis most recent statement on the matter shows that he is Affordable Care Act – the one below Obama introduced health protection; the law therefore becomes ““Obama Care” mentioned. Donald Trump had tried in 2017, during his presidency, ““Obama Care” However, the attempt to have it repealed failed in Congress. Now he has announced that if he is elected he will try again. Ron De Santis has – to a certain extent as the “echo” Trump’s – announced on December 3.12.2023rd, XNUMX, “Obama Care” to be replaced by another law. There is undoubtedly still a lot of room for improvement in the American social system. But neither Trump or DeSantis have made suggestions as to what could be used instead of ““Obama Care” should come. This project also includes both Trump as well as most DeSantis in a political quandary because ““Obama Care” is popular in America. In a survey in May 2023, 59 percent supported it Affordable Care Act. However – so that New York Times - The announcement to “replace” the law may have an advantage in the Republican primaries, as only 26 percent of Republicans support this health care law (nytimes.com, December 3.12.2023, XNUMX: “DeSantis Says He Would Pass a Bill to ‘Supersede’ Obamacare”).

Christian Zaschke, the correspondent of Süddeutsche Zeitung in New York has the following interim balance sheet in August 2023 DeSantis campaign drawn: “At the start of his campaign DeSantis as the only Republican politician who is the high favorite Trump could become dangerous. A good two months later it is largely valid Washington's as the most overrated candidate in the field” (sueddeutsche.de, August 1.8.2023, XNUMX: “Wrong target group, wrong strategy”).

The first Republican primaries will take place on January 5.1.2024, XNUMX Iowa instead of. A survey published on December 11.12.2023, XNUMX shows a bad picture for the Trump opponents: “The only one who gained ground in the first-choice state is Mr. Trump.” This is 51 percent – ​​in October it was 43 percent. In second place is in Iowa Ron De Santis with 19 percent, followed by Nikki Haley with 16 percent. Haley has gained ground since October, but according to the latest survey it has made no further progress. DeSantis was initially less noticeable Iowa concentrated, where he received prominent election recommendations. But given his weakness in New Hampshire, where he is only in fourth place, his campaign expects a strong result in the caucus events in Iowa. A new support group there has started advertising against Nikki Haley to switch. Different than originally DeSantis concentrate Haley on New Hampshire. She is the strongest competitor there Trump, however, is still far behind this (nytimes.com, December 11.12.2023, XNUMX: “Trump Gains in Iowa Poll, and DeSantis Holds off Haley for a Distant Second”).

Nachdem Trump in Iowa his lead DeSantis has expanded to over 30 percent, this has its attacks Trump somewhat aggravated. On December 10.12.2023, XNUMX he threw Trump to “X” (formerly Twitter) Cowardice because he has so far refused to take part in the Republican debates. However, this accusation did not resonate with Republican voters (nytimes.com, December 11.12.2023, XNUMX: “DeSantis Accuses Trump of ‘Cowardice’ for Refusing to Dabate Rivals”).

After the primaries in Iowa on January 15.1.2024, XNUMX, New Hampshire on January 23.1.2024, XNUMX and Nevada We will see more clearly on February 6.2.2024, XNUMX. The field of applicants will probably continue to thin out.

To be continued ...

 

Preview of part 2:

• The likely opponents: Biden vs Trump;
• The two parties: Democrats and Republicans;
• The Fascism Discussion in the United States;
• What if? The consequences of a choice Trumps for the USA and Europe.