Second analysis of the attack

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Post photo: man with helmet | © Pixabay

After I already on April 11, 2022 an initial analysis of the attack dared, I'm now looking at where we are a good year later. But here, too, I can only access information that is publicly available. My comrades at source should take this into account in case they come to different conclusions.

And to get straight to the point, this battle for Ukraine was won by the Russian Federation. It remains to be seen whether the Russians will also win the “great war” — not that my readers have already stopped reading in desperation.

The Russian war goal for the first (second, depending on the reading) battle for Ukraine has now been confirmed and the Russian Federation has also almost completely achieved it. Consolidation of the Crimea, establishment of a land bridge to the Crimea and further occupation of the south-eastern Ukrainian territories. But the Russians couldn't make Ukraine a landlocked country, nor did they catch up with Russian troops in Moldova. But that should Vladimir Putin didn't really expect either.

And it is becoming apparent that the Russian Federation can and will be able to keep its conquests this time as well. Now it is entirely up to the West whether to accept this again this time or whether to take up the battle for Ukraine as NATO.

Before I devote myself to this question in more detail, I would like to point out two other war aims of the Russian Federation, which are only slowly becoming apparent, and also the fears of Christian Moss from March 30, 2022 — World War III is in full swing - make it come true.

On the one hand, and now quite up-to-date, Vladimir Putin starting with the current attack on Ukraine, has now wiped out the entire Russian opposition and cleaned out its military and security apparatus; so he did exactly what Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin already practiced very successfully before him. The very last members of the opposition will soon be throwing themselves out of the windows. And with that, the last Western dream is gone, namely that the Russians will clean themselves from the inside out. The only question now is, can we treat the Russian Federation like North Korea and keep it locked away more or less successfully for decades, or do we start defending ourselves against the Russian menace?

On the other hand it has Vladimir Putin actually managed to corrupt the West as a whole and also ensured that a meaningful defense of Europe will only be possible beyond the Rhine. This means that when the Russian Federation takes on the rest of Europe after an operational break of about ten years, NATO can only engage in delaying battles up to the Rhine. How that will look then, z. B. describe the last surviving East Prussians quite well.

To make matters worse, at least the Turks, the Serbs and the Hungarians will march with the Russians, the other countries will immediately become involved in civil wars thanks to the strong Russian presence in their countries - including ours. We were able to see what that looks like back in the 1990s in the Balkans, when good neighbors suddenly cut off your nose and ears.

In doing so, we must also abandon the misconception that our governments will succeed in containing the Russian threat. So far, they have only been able to prevent or at least delay arms and ammunition deliveries to Ukraine very well, but they have quietly and secretly kept Russian arms production alive by supplying all the necessary parts.

The statement "one does not know where German industrial products end up and cannot control this" is a democratic and industrial policy declaration of bankruptcy by those responsible! Just taking the chips needed for rockets as an example: the manufacturer knows exactly what his chips are needed for and how big the market for them is — he has his own department with highly paid employees for this purpose. Another department ensures that the chips reach the customer in the right quantity at the right time. And all of a sudden, a customer's demand increases and nobody wants to know what they actually need these chips for?

One thing I've learned from this is that our industry bosses are only patriots when it comes to receiving government transfers. Otherwise they sell the world, their employees and even their own grandmother to maximize their personal profits - and our governments turn a blind eye to it.

At worst, the Russian Federation will continue to get the parts, weapons and ammunition it needs from its allies, especially when the Russian armed forces need to be rearmed during an operational pause I mentioned earlier. I can already hear German industry screaming that this opportunity should not be missed!

Do we really want it to come to this?

It would be our downfall if parts of the government, entire parties and population groups continued to cling to a final Russian victory — the Russians are already only too happy to spread the word on social media about what they will do after a victory, not only with us Germans. The well-known atrocities from the last two world wars are nothing more. And the Ukrainians who have not fled to the West are already having to endure this.

What do we need to do as soon as possible?

Even if it will not be possible in the short to medium term to help the Ukrainians get their entire country back — even today our politicians are not unanimous even on this issue! — we must ensure that the Ukrainians can continue to defend themselves against the Russian attacks. And these will continue until the Ukrainians officially agree to cede the Ukrainian parts; however, after that there will only be the operational pause I mentioned, until the Russian Federation faces the West again. And that pause then only looks like what happened in Ukraine between 2014 and 2022 — Ukrainians will continue to fall en masse for their country.

The massive support of Ukraine is necessary for two military reasons alone: ​​first, we continue to wear down the Russian armed forces, and second, we tie down enough Russian troops to prevent another major attack on the West for the time being.

To do that, the Ukrainians — they're just not trained NATO soldiers yet — will need more weapons and ammunition than we can even imagine. And we have to supply these until only our own material necessary for the training of our troops is available or we have finally started responsible armaments policy to operate (and this does not continue to make any cousins ​​or party donors, à la Airbus and Co. rich!).

In addition, the Ukrainians will again need all of their able-bodied and able-bodied sections of the population, starting with doctors and craftsmen right through to the soldiers. That's why we have to get hold of all deserters as soon as possible and hand them over to the Ukrainians and coordinate with Ukraine, who are happy to send over a million Ukrainians back to support their country. And by the way, that's the best promotion of democracy there is!

As soon as only the "stupid" citizens die for their country in a war and the "better" citizens, very often among them the children of politicians and the rich, sun themselves in safe foreign countries, one can no longer speak of a democracy - the ancient Greeks already knew that .

And since we are so emancipated in Germany and have even officially abolished gender, we could very easily train, equip and make available to the Ukraine the divisions that are so needed there. Incidentally, this relieves our housing market when the bulk of the Ukrainians who are still living with us are on our military training areas.

In addition to helping Ukraine, this is also useful for preparing for war (si vis pacem para bellum), because as soon as the Russians continue to attack, the other Eastern Europeans — at least “the better ones” — will migrate further west and not with them not only jeopardize our own existence, but also make it impossible to defend ourselves. Very practical for the Russians, who can then very easily advance through almost deserted areas and only encounter significant resistance on the Oder. It remains to be seen how NATO troops will then want to operate in such a mixed situation.

That's why we have to do it now — and much too late! — take further action! The Bundeswehr will need at least 3% of the gross domestic product over the next ten years and further national measures are urgently needed. Conscription must be extended to all Germans! Military registration must be carried out for everyone living in Germany.

The Bundeswehr must be reorganized and all ideological braids must be cut off. The soldiers must be paid better (separate salary group!) and minimum military standards must be enforced without exception. Access must also be made possible for qualified foreigners who receive German citizenship after two assignments. The Bundeswehr must receive functioning weapons and, above all, combat robots and drones and so on and immediately.

We have to create an armaments industry in Germany that functions within the NATO framework and is also embedded there - the purchase of a few F35 fighter jets can only be a first start, a drop of water in a bucket, so to speak.

We also have to train our police forces so that they can at least deal with underage bullies and family clans independently and also take on non-military security services in Germany.

The Federal Police must be enlarged and regained their combatant status; In the future, it must be able to secure flows of refugees and military operations nationwide and also be able to occupy temporary positions if necessary.

If we succeed in all of this over the next 10 years, we will have won yet another war, now a little warmer, and the Russian Federation will have to capitulate, unable to defeat a Europe that is now strong, united and bound by NATO. I bet that without the support of China and India, the Russian military will not continue to fight against Europe and the Russian system will actually implode.

And if they continue to compete, we will definitely be able to save Europe with the help of the Americans.

But if we oversleep the next 10 years, then at best we will all find ourselves in a GDR 2.0 — at least the “better” ones of us. The “very best” then live in the USA or Australia. And the "stupid" among us were buried somewhere.

But no matter how it turns out, we can slowly but surely get rid of our social system wonderland.


Worth reading article by David Petraeus and Frederick W Kagan in the Washington Post (24.8.2023/XNUMX/XNUMX): “Ukraine's counteroffensive might yet surprise critics“. Even if both see the Ukrainian successes more positively than I do, that doesn't change my further analysis.

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  • Just something to think about: by the beginning of August 2023, the whole war had probably cost the lives of around 450.000 Ukrainians and around 560.000 Russians (figures from the USA / NBC) – in total around 1 million people – 1 million families who are suffering in vain have to endure.
    And no matter who is "right" - first of all a truce has to be reached in order to end this senseless dying. Unfortunately, nothing can be heard or seen from the Europeans in particular, and so the dying goes on. And what for? Who benefits from this conflict in $$$ or €€€?
    Politically, Ukraine is no different than Russia, and the Ukrainians I spoke to ultimately don't care if they belong to Russia or Ukraine - they just don't want to end up as cannon fodder.

    • This information is likely to refer to wounded and dead, although it should be noted that these are very rough estimates. If the ratio of losses were correct, it would not bode well for the Ukrainians' defensive struggle.

      It is undisputed that in a war normal people, like you and me, have to experience unspeakable suffering. Also that there are always people who profit from a war.

      The armistice is a very deceptive thing, because the official war aim of the Russian Federation is the destruction of Ukraine, and not just as a state! Certainly, the Russian Federation would only be ready for a ceasefire if it would prevent it from being defeated — and this is very dangerous not only for Ukraine.

      The Ukraine is a young democracy that has functioned quite well so far — here I would like to point out, among other things, the most recent investigations into war profiteers (see above). The Russian Federation is a dictatorship of the worst kind. So I have to ask myself how you came to equate the two states?

      Also, I don't know which Ukrainians you spoke to. If they actually said so, then these people are a disgrace to their country!

      I worked with Ukrainians in 1997 and I have to assume that most of them have now fallen for their country. I have also spoken to many other Ukrainians over the past two years. Not a single one wants to end up as cannon fodder, but all are willing to fight for their country and families — each doing what he can.

      And by the time this unspeakable war is over, some of these people will certainly have died for their country, but at least some family members will have to mourn.

      That is more than tragic, but a demand for an alleged armistice, which by the way is currently securing the Russian Federation's war goal, is politically very questionable and a clear sign of support for the Russian dictatorship.

      • The people from Ukraine I spoke to were people from Odessa and from the Mariopol area. And none of them were keen to hold their heads up for any oligarchs – no matter where they came from. (talks were in May 2023)
        Ukraine cannot win this conflict militarily - because there will soon be a lack of soldiers because all the able-bodied sons of Ukraine are dead.
        And just because you want to stop the killing first, are you a supporter of the Russian side? In my eyes a strange view of people and the world. After all, it won't work without a political compromise, after all, Ukraine and Russia are neighbors. No matter how long the carnage lasts.

        • "For some oligarchs" — you intentionally or not denigrate Ukraine. In addition, the Ukrainians do not "turn their heads" for others, but defend themselves as a people against a misanthropic aggressor.

          That Ukraine cannot win this war alone — by the way, neither could we! — is undisputed. With the help of other democracies, however, it can definitely win this war, which is actually a war against the democracies themselves, including us.

          "Just because you..." is also a strange view of people and the world in my opinion. At least here, our ideas diverge very far. If you really wanted to stop the killing, you would have to advocate that the Russian Federation immediately cease all hostilities and genocide against Ukraine and that Russian forces leave the country as soon as possible — but you don't!

          However, I am a little curious about your proposal for a political compromise.

          • The “some oligarchs” was the gist of what the Ukrainians I spoke to said. The term can also be replaced by “the powerful”.
            Ukraine is not nearly as homogeneous as some people here in the West imagine. Especially the people in eastern Ukraine practically only speak Russian and feel that way too. Since the official ban on the Russian language in schools and offices, on signs, etc., they see themselves as second-class citizens. Incidentally, that is one of the main reasons why the civil war broke out in 2014 and was then diligently escalated by all sides in order to achieve their own goals.

            In view of the fact that "Ukraine has 450.000 fallen soldiers" (statement by the American general on NBC), I see a "victorious peace" for Ukraine as unattainable - even with massive Western support.
            If you follow your logic and you absolutely want a victory for Ukraine, then sooner or later this will inevitably mean supporting Ukraine through the deployment of foreign (NATO?) soldiers – after all, someone has to be in the planes and tanks. And that would complete the mess. Then we might very quickly have a major European conflict, and that would be very bitter for us Europeans.

            By the way, you can find interesting thoughts on this in this YouTube video by Mr. Lüning, which is well worth seeing: https://youtu.be/hf-qToJSqyQ?si=3ShcwxbnNsk2cDrr

            Are you asking about the political compromise and how it might look like?
            Well, at some point the Americans and the Russians will work this out among themselves. Maybe the Chinese mediate (because they need grain from Ukraine and Russia). Neither the EU nor the Ukrainians themselves will have anything to report IMHO. We are just the pawns on the world politics board.

          • The thing about the "powerful" who somehow oppress the Russian-speaking minority reminds me not only of the Russian propaganda in preparation for the war of aggression against Ukraine, but also more and more of the whining of far too many Germans with (Soviet) Russian roots who themselves after decades they hardly use the German language — their alleged mother tongue —, don't understand democracy properly or even reject it altogether, hate everything that comes from America or embodies western values ​​and has therefore still not arrived in our country. — By the way, in 2014 no civil war broke out in Ukraine, but Russian troops invaded Ukraine and started torturing, raping and murdering people in a completely senseless way.

            Not only do Eastern Europeans rightly fear that “oppressed Russians will soon start a civil war” in their countries, but we in Germany must also be very careful that more people with a history of immigration from Russia don’t just stab migrants on the street ( Heilbronn) or throw little Ukrainian boys off bridges (Einbeck) — which is what you do when you're not really valued as a Soviet.

            I agree with you that a victory for Ukraine is not only wanted by all democrats, but is an absolute necessity. Anyone who still hopes for a victory for the Russian Federation or even supports it in its misdeeds has no place here with us - worse still, they are a great danger to our country!

            And no, Democrats are not pawns on any board! That's just what anti-democrats want us to believe again and again. That goes very well with the term “the powerful up there”.