Ukraine | Climate Disasters | gas crisis | Putin doctrine

Feature photo: Image by S. Hermann & F. Richter | © Pixabay 

If Russia invades Ukraine, what happens next?

David A. Lake enters the Washington Post on January 22, 2022, with a sobering conclusion about Ukraine. The fact that the EU plays no role at all is not only self-evident, but also completely justified!

In his contribution, he attempts to explain that the only halfway viable measure left to the US would be to support Ukrainian resistance fighters in the event that the Russian Federation establishes a satellite government in Ukraine, or, less likely, itself occupy Ukraine in its entirety.

He sees the support given to the Afghan rebels after the Soviet troops invaded in 1979 as a successful example. But he also makes it very clear that even after the US has successfully supported the insurgents, which alone will be very expensive, the success of this would then be even more expensive for the US because it will then be forced to help with the reconstruction of the country .

In the worst case, the US could even be dragged into the conflict itself — Afghanistan is a good example here, too.

Here is the relevant article in the Washington Post:

How to Avoid a Climate Disaster

Bill Gates must be one of the most famous living people ever. In any case, he is one of the richest in the world. He has been committed to well-intentioned aid projects worldwide for a long time and is probably one of the most generous people of our time.

It is probably less known that Gates reads a lot and has done so for some time own blog operates and writes book recommendations. And new to me that he also writes his own books.

His latest book is 230 pages about climate change and aims to show the solutions we already have and the technological advances we still need.

Bill Gates is convinced that we must 1. reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero in order to be able to prevent another climate catastrophe. 2. That we need to expand wind and solar energy worldwide and as quickly as possible. And 3. we have to develop and implement new groundbreaking ideas as quickly as possible in order to still be able to achieve success.

His statement is unequivocal: simply reducing greenhouse gas emissions is far too short-sighted. Nevertheless, I am convinced that if he could influence his old company Microsoft, not only to streamline Microsoft products, but also to make them efficient for the first time, we could shut down countless coal-fired power plants today.

But that's a completely different construction site. In any case, his book is a quick read and also a very good introduction to the subject.

You can purchase the book on Amazon here:

Who is really to blame for the gas crisis?

Thomas Stoelzel  and Florian Guessgen checked the facts in Wirtschaftswoche on January 25, 2022. Even if Germany needs more gas in the medium term because the nuclear power plants will be shut down in 2022 and then the coal-fired power plants will soon be shut down, this is not the cause of the current situation.

So Stözel and Güßgen take a closer look and check the validity of the current statements from all sides. In short, the Russian Federation could do more.

However, it would certainly be better for everyone involved if gas consumption were reduced overall and its origin further diversified.

You can find the corresponding article in Wirtschaftswoche here:

The Putin Doctrine

Angela Stent wrote in Foreign Affairs on January 27, 2022 about what she calls the Putin doctrine, certainly a nod to his Ukraine doctrine, where in a fundamental article he invokes the “historical unity” of Russians and Ukrainians without failing to do so to massively threaten the latter.

In her contribution, she describes the latest developments in Russia since Putin came to power, whose behavior reminds me more and more of Hitler's after the loss of the First World War. In any case, “Russian megalomania” testifies to the fact that nationally minded Russians are no less inferior to their French or German nationalist “brothers” — in this respect, Russia is simply a part of the superstate Europe whose megalomania has terrorized the world for over three centuries .

So I believe that Stent is wrong in continuing to count Russia among the world powers alongside China, India and the USA. Because Russia, like the rest of Europe, is a relic now — entirely dependent on the weal and woe of its larger neighbors. That is why Russia's last rebellion is so dangerous, and we Europeans should do our best to avoid letting ourselves be infected by this Russian (European?) megalomania — Emmanuel Macron and its potential successors are already very quick.

If there were still a responsible European policy, then it would be the task of the Europeans to convince Putin that Russia can do more for Russia with EU and NATO cooperation than to make a vain attempt to dominate Europe by dominating the rest wanting to "dominate" the world. Because the three remaining great powers will never allow this, and China only supports Russia for as long as it will be useful in the dispute with the USA.

On the one hand, Europe must keep up the threads of dialogue with Putin in order to be able to convince him after all - this did not work out with Hitler, however - and on the other hand, strengthen its defense capabilities in close cooperation with the USA and Canada as quickly as possible to prevent a Russian attack after all to fend off with as few own losses as possible.

In any case, a Russian attack on NATO will mean the end of Russia. And for everyone involved, that ending will be very costly — just think what it would cost the US and Europe alone to have to rebuild not just Ukraine, but then Belarus and the Russian Federation as well.

And that is probably Putin's greatest trump card! The Western world simply cannot (or will) afford to see all Russians suddenly become democrats and demand from the West exactly the support that Eastern Europeans already received after the collapse of the Soviet regime in 1990.

Due to the European disunity and its own weakness in democracy, Putin can continue to live and also try to get bigger and bigger pieces of the European cake.

Angela Stent ends her article as follows: "The current crisis is ultimately about Russia redrawing the post-Cold War map and seeking to reassert its influence over half of Europe, based on the claim that it is guaranteeing its own security. It may be possible to avert a military conflict this time. But as long as Putin remains in power, so will his doctrine.”

Here is the relevant article in Foreign Affairs:

"It is easy to feel powerless in the face of a problem as big as climate change. But you're not powerless. And you don't have to be a politician or a philanthropist to make a difference. You have influence as a citizen, a consumer, and an employee or employer.”

Bill Gates, How to Avoid a Climate Disaster (2021: 218)
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