Post photo: man with helmet | © Pixabay
After the supposedly first season recently took its targets of attack, the second season is now being introduced to take the war goal that is now slowly but surely becoming apparent.
Even without sufficient relevant information, which is not confirmed by anyone else, I dare to make an initial analysis of the current Russian attack on Ukraine.
As early as November 2021, enough Russian troops had positioned themselves around Ukraine to be able to occupy another piece of Ukraine. Years before, it had been speculated that the Russian Federation wanted to conquer a land bridge to Crimea on the one hand and that the two self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk on the other hand wanted complete Russian control.
However, the Russian deployment in November 2021 gave rise to fears of far worse, because it had to be assumed that this was only the first squadron and that the entire Ukraine could therefore be seen as a target. In February 2022, I asked if there was any information about the second season.
From today's point of view, one has to assume that this Russian deployment was deliberately chosen to firstly put massive pressure on both Ukraine and the remaining East Europeans, but still give NATO a limited Russian attack target (no recognizable second echelon for the military!). signal, and thereby frightening all the politicians, but at the same time reassuring the NATO military.
The attack then took place on February 24, 2022 across the board (except for the Belarusian troops — here why might be most interesting) and made all western politicians fear the worst. Which, particularly in Germany, led to excessive actions by politicians.
I now assume that the advance on Kyiv was a sham attack in order to get a better grip on the target ("motivation") and to seize a chance, albeit small, that the Ukrainian government collapsing ("luck of the fit") or more likely that Germany would have forced Ukraine and the rest of Europe to proceed as it did with the annexation of Crimea ("long-term investment in western politicians").
Even if Ukraine did not surrender and the West showed an unprecedented level of solidarity (above-mentioned skipping action), one must recognize that this sham attack was very worthwhile for the Russian side.
The land bridge to the Crimea has already been established (first echelon) and it is foreseeable that the second echelon, which is generated by moving troop units and further troop reinforcements, will achieve the war goal (to get Donetsk and Luhansk completely under Russian control).
Can the Russian Federation win this war too?
I maintain that yes, because the Ukrainian troops had to accept essential losses of territory in the southeast due to the defense of Kiev and the further threat in the north of the country, which they can no longer easily reverse. You now need a good fivefold superiority yourself, which you will never have on your own.
In addition, no German politician now has to fear being arrested for supporting a war of aggression, and all those involved are becoming aware of the total costs of such a war - the talk is now of at least one trillion euros.
Therefore, by May at the latest (when Vladimir Putin is right, then exactly on May 8, 2022) the Germans motivate Ukraine and their remaining European allies that Ukraine once again relinquishes areas and people "in favor of world peace". And Ukraine will probably have no choice but to back down again.
Can the Russian Federation win this war too?
No, because it never went into these, from Vladimir Putin waged wars Vladimir Putin, but, and this makes the whole thing so powerful and life-threatening, about the freedom or slavery of all mankind.
Putin's closest ally is Xi Jinping, currently the laughing third party and already waiting for his own favor of the moment. And in Russia, contrary to the (protective) claim of Olaf Scholz, Putin is not a lonely dictator, but the head of a larger and more powerful “clique” with very good global connections.
And what makes Putin so powerful and dangerous are his allies in Europe, including the European left, the European right, parts of the S&D as well as the EPP; the latter probably more because far too many politicians are in his wages and bread (Gerhard Schroeder is not the exception).
That means if Ukraine has to back down this time too, that
- Joe Biden, who not only once again sacrifices American soldiers for Europe, but also spends hundreds of billions of dollars for Europe, will probably have been the last European-minded US President,
- The Americans, out of necessity and rightly feeling betrayed by Europe (among other things, Germany is not even meeting the 2% requirement again) will turn to the Pacific,
- the Ukrainians will come to an agreement with the Russian Federation in the future,
- the Turks also feel compelled to
- at the latest when Putin starts again and this time in the Baltic States, the EU falls apart like a house of cards and the Russian Federation only has to pick up the fragments.
My conclusion
The only thing that will save the free world now is a protracted war in Ukraine, which will force the Russian Federation and the European Union to say goodbye to the "Putin system".
The clear victims are the Ukrainians, who, if successful, must be offered not only membership in the EU but also in NATO.
The other victims of the "Putin system" are all of us Europeans, who will foot the bill for this war alongside the Americans. And it is far from certain that our democracies or even Europe will survive this.
The winners of the war, just like we Germans did after the Second World War, will be the people in the Russian Federation who get the chance to become part of the free world.
"When the war was over, the soldier came home. But he had no bread. Then he saw someone who had bread. He killed him.
Wolfgang Borchert, All works, all writings (2021:221)
You mustn't kill anyone, said the judge.
Why not, asked the soldier."
