America lurches...

Post photo: Trump supporters shortly before storming the US Capitol | © Tyler Merbler - https://www.flickr.com/photos/37527185@N05/50812356151/

In my previous post “Unusual self-doubt in America — Europe must become more dynamic“ from February 14.2.2022, 6 I described the self-doubt and the inner turmoil in politics and society in the USA. These developments are clear after four years of Trump's presidency. The events of January 2021, XNUMX, unique in American history, were particularly serious, when the incumbent president called on his radical supporters to storm the Capitol in Washington to prevent the constitutional transfer of power. The pessimistic view of the country's future has not yet disappeared in the USA, as large parts of Trump's party and his voters still "believe" that Trump's election was "stolen" by the Democrats and by dark forces.  

My new perspective describes these developments and uncertainties in the United States, which can be seen with an outsider's view. It is clear to me that this paper, which has become quite long and detailed, is far from being able to describe all the details of what happened. In the course of writing, new aspects of the "rolling" in American politics and society became visible again and again. I wish for patient readers.

America lurches – with consequences for Europe

"America is back" - "America is back" proclaimed Joe Biden after his inauguration as President of the United States last year. And indeed: America has reappeared on the world stage as the leading power of the liberal, democratic states. Signed on 15.7.2021/XNUMX/XNUMX Joe Biden and Angela Merkel can Declaration of Washington, in which they reaffirmed their countries' readiness for close cooperation for peace, security and prosperity in the world. 

Among other things, the declaration laid down the common commitment to democratic principles, values ​​and institutions as the basis for relations between the two countries:

“Together we will uphold the rule of law, promote transparency and good governance, and support civil society and independent media. We will stand up for the rights and dignity of all people and fight injustice and inequality wherever they occur. We uphold the universal values ​​that lie at the heart of the United Nations Charter and are united in our commitment to respect human rights everywhere, including by confronting and responding to violations of human rights in concert. We must act now to prove that democracy can live up to the expectations of the citizens of our countries and democratic leadership can live up to the expectations of the world.”

The passage of the Declaration of Washington, dealing specifically with Europe and the need for close cooperation between the US and European countries:

“More than three decades after German reunification, we will continue to work tirelessly for a Europe that is united, free and at peace. Where foreign powers pose an obstacle to the realization of this goal, we will join together to jointly strengthen our defenses, build our resilience and increase our solidarity. NATO will continue to be the cornerstone of this effort, and our commitment to Article 5 is written in stone. We emphasize the need to build on our alliances and partnerships to meet the challenges of the future – including cyber threats, energy security, disinformation, corruption, departure from democracy and electoral interference.”

I would like to point out once again: This declaration was signed on July 15.7.2021, XNUMX. Such an explanation would not have been possible with Biden's predecessor. From today's perspective, two aspects are particularly noteworthy:

Donald Trump was voted out as US President. It was now a matter of repairing the severely disrupted relationship between the USA and Europe and dispelling the doubts raised by Trump about the NATO defense alliance. the Washington Declaration was the detailed formulation of the Biden promise "America is back!"

It would be around seven months before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.2.2022, 24.2.2022, in violation of international law. Had Putin read the statement carefully, he should have realized that the US and its allies would respond with great solidarity. But Putin misjudged this point of view and Ukraine's willingness to resist. He has done his country and Europe a miserable service. In Europe there was one on February XNUMXth, XNUMX turning point.

“America is back!” – it was high time. It is inconceivable what an awkward situation Europe and the EU would have gotten into if Trump had still been President at the time of the Russian invasion. Trump, who admired the world's autocrats, whom Putin supported in the 2016 election; the same Putin whom Trump trusted more than his own secret service at the meeting in Helsinki on July 16.7.2018, XNUMX. Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Ukraine hardly stood a chance from a president Donald Trump to be supported against the Russian attack, after all they had initiated the first impeachment proceedings against Trump.

“America is back!” – the USA is back on the world political stage. But domestically, the United States and American society have not calmed down even 1 ½ years since Trump was voted out of office – on the contrary. "America is back – but where are the Republicans going?” I had overwritten my observation of February 27.2.2021th, XNUMX. Even today, this question cannot be answered unequivocally. The American midterm elections will be an important pointer - midterms on November 8.11.2022th, 2024. All members of the House of Representatives, some of the senators and a large number of political office holders in the states are then elected. The "battle noise" is therefore already correspondingly loud. And it will become even louder if Trump officially declares that he wants to run for president again in XNUMX. A depressing prospect for Europe and the world. Another four years of Trump could not be "sat out" again without serious damage.

In the following I want to write about the current situation and the possible developments in America and in particular about the following topics:

• The current House of Representatives investigation into the Storming the Capitol on 6.1.2021/XNUMX/XNUMX;

• Various landmark decisions of the Supreme Court: suspension of the right to an abortion; gun law; climate policy;

• The political and social divisions in the USA and the resulting negative future prospects for the country.

A few press headlines should describe the negative future prospects in the USA in mid-2022:

         "Trump Is Still a Threat" / Trump is still a threat"

            (nytimes.com, 12.6.2022; opinion comment from Charles M Blow)

         "America May Be Broken Beyond Repair"

           (nytimes.com, 27.5.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX; opinion comment from Michelle goldberg)

         "America is Shattering"

          (sueddeutsche.de, 1.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX; opinion comment from Hubert Wezel)

The coup of January 6, 2021 - the processing

Was it an attempted coup instigated by the President Donald Trump or a demonstration of disaffected citizens expressing their right to free speech? The events on January 6, 2021 in Washington DC are interpreted so differently, which are processed as a "storming of the Capitol" by an investigative committee of the US House of Representatives. In view of the brutal images that went around the world for days after January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX, the downplaying of some Republicans sounds downright outrageous. After all that the investigative committee has brought to light, some senators may secretly regret not having solved the "Trump problem" in the second impeachment trial. The "Big Lie," Trump's "stolen election" narrative, still dominates the Republican Party. But it may also be the case that some are counting on the forgetfulness of the voters. 

On June 9.6.2022, XNUMX, the committee of inquiry held its first public session. The committee is boycotted by Republicans; however, the two dissidents of the party, liz cheney from Wyoming and Adam kinzinger from Illinois, worked closely on the committee. You are among the 10 Republicans who supported Trump's indictment in the second impeachment trial in the House of Representatives. 

Led by the Democratic MP Benny Thompson from Mississippi and his deputy liz cheney the committee viewed mountains of image and video material, evaluated press releases and heard around 1.000 witnesses in many private meetings. Around 45 employees work for the committee, including former public prosecutors and lawyers. The final report will be difficult in terms of content, because professional work is being done for it.

In the now 8 public sessions, essential results were presented and other important witnesses were questioned under oath. These witnesses have repeatedly reported how Trump and his supporters, especially after legal means of contesting the election failed, used tricks, threats, and incitement of Trump supporters to attempt to confirm the election of Joe Biden to prevent the President of the USA. All in all, culminating in the ignominious storming of the Capitol by a heated mob on January 6, 2021. Trump tried to challenge the election result with 61 lawsuits. In 60 cases, the objections were dismissed as poorly founded. However, Trump and his supporters are still spreading the “Big Lie” about the “stolen election” today. They have not provided any solid evidence to support this.  

The previous public hearings of the committee showed, on the one hand, Trump's lousy attempts to block the result of a fair election by all means - and in the end by violence; a performance that the world's autocrats are sure to enjoy. However, there was also a certain satisfaction that the country's structures held up. Upright Republicans who didn't want to play along in their president's evil game have always played a part in this. However, how will the Republican leadership take the final report of the committee, whose work they have described as a propaganda event? And how will Americans react in the coming elections? Will they recognize the urgent call to you from the Committee: Protect the American Constitution and Democracy! She was on the brink!

It would go far beyond the scope of this paper if I wanted to describe in detail the previous 8 public meetings of the committee. The hearings will continue after the summer break. On June 9.6.2022, 20, around 9 million television viewers saw the first session. The aim of the XNUMX committee members was and is to bring the context and background of that attack on American democracy closer to the general public, which plunged the political system into a crisis of confidence.  Benny Thompson said in his introduction: "Donald Trump was the center of the conspiracy. and Donald Trump, the President of the United States, encouraged the mob of internal enemies of the Constitution to march on the Capitol to try to overthrow American democracy" (nytimes.com, 9.6.2022/6/XNUMX: "'Trump Was at the Center': Jan. XNUMX Hearing Lays Out Case in Vivid Detail").

Six weeks later, at what was initially the last public hearing on July 21.7.2022, XNUMX, the Republican MP summed it up Adam kinzinger from Illinois summarizes the current status of the investigation as follows: "Wherever one may stand politically, whatever one may think of the result of the elections (2020), as Americans we have to agree on one thing: Donald Trump's conduct on January 6 was a gross breach of his oath of office and a total neglect of his duties to our nation" (nytimes.com, 22.7.2022: "Jan. 6 Hearings Invoke Patriotism to Urge Voters to Break With Trump”). 

During these 6 weeks, the Americans received comprehensive insights into the processes and context of January 6, 2021 and into the active participation of the President and his aides and advisers. Far more impressive and moving than the frequently shown images of the storming of the Capitol, however, were the live testimonies of the committee's respective witnesses. Mostly convinced Republicans spoke here - the shock of what they had experienced was often reflected in their faces: they had witnessed the chaos at the Capitol themselves and often had not yet fully processed it, for example when Serena Liebengood burst into tears; her husband, the police officer Howard Liebengood, took his own life after the events of January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX.

"What I saw was a war zone," the police officer said Caroline Edwards, one of more than 150 members of the police who were injured on January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX. “I saw police officers lying on the ground. they bled. They vomited. I slipped in the blood of the people. It was a bloodbath. It was chaos" (nytimes.com, 9.6.2022/6/XNUMX: "'Trump Was at the Center': Jan. XNUMX Hearing Lays Out Case in Vivid Detail").

At the 4th hearing on June 21.6.2022, XNUMX, two convinced Republicans appeared as witnesses who Trump had wanted to use for his illegal machinations. The two conservative states of Arizona and Georgia had fallen to Biden – Trump wanted to turn the results there upside down with weird methods.

Rusty Bowers, the Republican Speaker of the Arizona State Legislature reported how he countered Trump's request to create confusion by filing a second list of Trump electors alongside the official and legal list of Biden electors and Vice President Mike pence possibly to cause the results of Arizona to be rejected when determining the official election result on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX. "I didn't want to be used as a pawn," said Bowers before the committee. "You are asking me to act against my oath," he countered. To the question of bowers, how one could legally issue a second list of electors answered him John Eastman from Trump's personal team of advisors: "Just do it and let the courts decide." There was a legally sound reasoning Eastman not to that.

Bowers was punished for his refusal. After refusing the Trump people's request, a truck drove through his neighborhood and announced that Bowers be a pedophile. With tears in his eyes, he told the committee about the harassment his daughter, who was seriously ill, also had to endure – she died last year (nytimes.com, June 21.6.2022, XNUMX: “Panel Ties Trump to Fake Elector Plan, Mapping His Attack on Democracy”). His emotional appearance before the committee, where he espoused the traditional values ​​of the US Constitution, was not honored by his Arizona party. In the Republican primary Rusty Bowers thrown out of the race (IPG press service, 23.8.2022;  Stephanie Muravchik & Jon A Shields: “Armed for the Party Congress”).

Also reported in the 4th hearing on June 21.6.2022, XNUMX Brad Raffensperger, the Republican Secretary of the Interior of Georgia about a similar experience to hers Rusty Bowers had to do. Raffensperger was personally urged by Trump in a lengthy telephone call on January 3.1.2021, XNUMX to “find” enough votes to overrule Biden’s victory in Georgia. Later became Raffensperger's Woman harassed with sexual text messages. In the house of Raffensperger's Daughter in law was broken into.

Cassidy Hutchinson was close at hand in the White House

At her hearing on June 28.6.2022, XNUMX Cassidy Hutchinson, the 26-year-old former employee of Mark Meadows, the chief of staff of Donald Trump in the White House, one of the key witnesses of the investigative committee. She spent two hours reporting what she saw, heard and experienced at the White House on January 6th. Hutchinson also received telephone threats prior to her hearing: a person told her that he knew about her testimony the next day and that he wanted her to know he was thinking of her. He knows that she is loyal and does the right thing when she makes her sworn statements. Thus Hutchinson had the apparent attempt to influence the witnesses of the committee vice chairmen liz cheney reported. 

It may have been like a movie scene when the President smashed his dinner plate in a fit of rage and the ketchup dripped off the wall. That little detail Hutchinson's Statement testifies to the impetuosity of a man who liked to describe himself as a "very even-tempered genius". The description of this scene came as no surprise to other Trump employees, the reports New York Times. "However, watching their testimonies under oath and live on television showed how upset President Trump was during the last perilous time in the White House." should be removed from office because he appeared unable to carry out his official duties. 

Significantly more serious than the smashed plate story, however, was what Hutchinson reported from accounts of those directly involved in the Trump rally before the storming of the Capitol. There, Trump was informed that armed people were going to the event. Trump's response: "I don't give a damn they're armed. They're not here to hurt me. Turn off the (...) metal detectors and let my people in. You can then march to the Capitol. let people in Turn off the (…) machines!”

This statement proves: Trump knew that later in his speech he called on armed people to go to the Capitol to fight "hellishly". In his speech he announced that he would be present at the Capitol. His security guards didn't do him that favor and took Trump back to the White House. There were contradictory statements Hutchinson's Report that she later heard from reports from those involved that there was a scuffle between Trump and security guards in the President's limousine. She had told a story she only knew from hearsay; in a preliminary investigation this detail would not be very important.

The New York Times concludes its report on the statements of Cassidy Hutchinson "The President was brought back to the White House, where he watched the proceedings (at the Capitol) on television for the rest of the day - he was not upset at the violence being unleashed on his behalf, but that the election result was not changed" (nytimes.com, 28.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "A President Untethered"). 

The statements of Cassidy Hutchinson shed new light on whether Trump committed a criminal offense by asking his fans to march to the Capitol and fight like hell. Legal experts say that knowing there were gunmen among the protesters and having said he wanted to take them to the Capitol puts him closer to a criminal investigation. It was also discussed in the White House. Pat Cipollone, the chief counsel at the White House believed that taking part in the march to the Capitol could have serious consequences: "We would then be accused of all sorts of wrongdoing." Not least the obstruction of Congress in determining the result of the electoral college on January 6 (nytimes.com, June 28.6.2022, XNUMX: "Cassidy Hutchinson's Testimony Highlights Legal Risks for Trump").

On the afternoon of January 6, 2021, the White House must have been like an agitated chicken coop. As violence around and inside the Capitol escalated, staff and family members tried in vain to persuade the President to call for moderation from his supporters. "Mark, we have to do something," said Pat Cipollone to chief of staff Mark Meadows. "They even yell that the vice president should be hung up." Meadows:  "You heard him Pat. He believes Mike deserved it. He thinks they're not doing anything wrong." (nytimes.com, 28.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Trump Urged Armed Supporters to Capitol, White House Aide Testifies").

Only 187 minutes later could President Trump be persuaded to call the mob at the Capitol. In it he asked the perpetrators to go home and added: "We love you. You are special people" (Heilbronn voice, July 23.7.2022, XNUMX: "No call, nothing, zero").

what likes Cassidy Hutchinson persuaded them to make these serious statements in the committee of inquiry. Trump then attacked her: He knew Hutchinson Not. She is a "third-rate upstart" and a "maniac" who is spreading lies for a partisan witch hunt (Heilbronn voice, 30.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Witness: Trump acted like crazy"). In the same report describes the Heilbronn voice the young woman as a convinced Republican. She is the Chief of Staff's most important assistant Meadows been. "For ten months, the now 26-year-old worked in the White House, just five doors down Oval Office and thus removed from Trump". In summary, she said in the committee of inquiry: “It was unpatriotic. It was un-American. We watched the Capitol desecrate because of a lie" (sueddeutsche.de, June 30.6.2022, XNUMX: "From enthusiastic assistant to key witness against Trump").

I cannot go into the many legal issues addressed in this section of my paper. What Trump and his troops concocted after the lost election was illegal. White House counsel has repeatedly tried to convince Trump that he lost the election. Vain! At the committee hearing on 16.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX, the former appeals judge made J. Michael Luttig - a committed Conservative - policy statements I've been following on CNN. lousy spoke with deliberation, almost seeming to weigh the words before speaking them. He didn't talk with foam at the mouth - on the contrary. lousy said in the investigating committee: "Could have pence met the President's expectations (Trump had pence pressed for a long time to reject the election results of various states on January 6.1.2022th, XNUMX) it would have triggered the first constitutional crisis since the founding of the republic" (nytimes.com. 17.6.2022/6/XNUMX: "Amid Jan. XNUMX Revelations, Election Lies Still Dominate the GOP"). That was a clear and unambiguous statement. But Trump and many of his supporters don't seem to care. They still believe that Trump's election was "stolen".              

At the 3rd hearing on June 16.6.2022, XNUMX, it became known that the lawyer John Eastman, who had advised Trump on his attempts to turn the election results on their head and who spoke at the Trump rally before the storming of the Capitol on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX, later asked Trump to put him on the list of pardons at the end of his set term of office (nytimes.com, 17.6.2022/6/XNUMX: "The Biggest Surprise of the Jan. XNUMX Hearings So Far"). At least six Republican members of the House of Representatives have made the same request to the White House (nytimes.com, 23.6.2022/6/XNUMX: "Jan. XNUMX Panel Outlines Trump's Bid to Coerce Justice Dept. Officials"). The discussion about whether a criminal investigation should be opened against Trump is in full swing.

The Supreme Court delivers explosive election campaign issues - an overview

The United States Supreme Court has delivered what Republicans have come to expect of it over the past few months. He announces one conservative fundamental judgment after the other. During the presidency of Donald Trump three new judges could be appointed and this resulted in a whopping conservative majority in the nine-judge body. Supreme Court justices are appointed for life. The conservative majority of 6:3 votes that has now been reached has already announced three notable decisions:

1. The nationwide abortion law that had been in force since 1973, which was based on a ruling by the Supreme Court, was repealed, with the result that the individual states now responsible had to pass a patchwork of regulations - from a practical total ban to the continuing right of women to decide on an abortion - has already arisen or will arise in the near future. In 22 states, regulations are already in force that make abortion extremely difficult or practically impossible. Other states will follow. In about 20 mostly democratically governed states, abortions remain (initially) legal. In these states there will be fierce conflicts in the future about the irreconcilable contradiction between women's right to self-determination and the protection of unborn life. This makes the midterms on November 8, 2022 particularly significant (sueddeutsche.de, June 25.6.2022, XNUMX: “Where abortions are now prohibited and where not”). I will go into further details of the Supreme Court's decision elsewhere.   
2. On June 23.6.2022, XNUMX, the Supreme Court overturned important provisions of the New York State gun law, contrary to the opinion of the majority of Americans. the Süddeutsche Zeitung summarized the significance of this ruling as follows: "The toughest gun laws in America have been in New York since 1911. Last week it was lifted" (sueddeutsche.de, July 1.7.2022, XNUMX: "Against the will of the people"). An editorial of New York Times The title of this judgment is: "The Supreme Court puts the right to bear arms above people's lives" (nytimes.com, 25.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX; editors). For example, the ruling overrode the requirement that carrying a concealed weapon requires a permit that was only granted after reasonable justification. Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York State, commented on the verdict: “We have enough gun violence problems as it is. We shouldn't pour any more fuel on the fire" (nytimes.com, June 23.6.2022, XNUMX: "Supreme Court Strikes Down New York Law Limiting Guns in Public"). The conservative judge Clarence Thomas based the reasoning of the majority of Supreme Court justices on a more recent interpretation of the Second Amendment of the US Constitution, which enshrines the right to bear arms and: “…which lies hidden somewhere in the 27 words of the Second Amendment “ (nytimes.com, June 25.6.2022, XNUMX: Editorial: “The Supreme Court Puts Gun Rights Above the Human Life”). You have to, one could also say, “believe” in this right hidden in the Second Amendment, willy-nilly. Over time, this decision will spill over into other states that have had stricter gun laws up until now. The judgment appears given the standing mass shooting totally out of date in the US. 
3. A verdict passed by the Supreme Court on June 30.6.2022, XNUMX will have catastrophic environmental consequences not only for America but for the climate around the world, because air pollution does not stop at national borders. It was decided that the American environmental protection agency EPA (Environment Protection Agency) is no longer entitled to impose restrictive requirements on coal-fired power plants regarding their CO² emissions. This must be regulated by federal law - a decision that takes climate protection in the USA ad absurdum, because due to the majorities and voting mechanisms (filibuster rule) in the Senate, effective climate protection rules will be virtually impossible in the United States in the future. A catastrophe indeed, as the US is the world's second largest air polluter after China. 

Similar to the reversal of important parts of the New York gun law, the Supreme Court has also updated earlier rulings "conservatively" in this decision. As recently as 1984, conservative judges had confirmed the competence and jurisdiction of administrative agencies such as the EPA. The judges admitted in 1984 that they were neither experts (e.g. on climate issues) nor public officials and would therefore leave such decisions to other bodies. In other words: in 1984, the Supreme Court found itself unable to make political decisions that came about as a compromise in the public discourse after long discussions and considerations. Today's conservative majority on the Supreme Court sees it very differently. The environmental authority is only given responsibility for "probably unimportant regulations". Clear authorizations from Congress are required on “crucial issues”. Just like in 1984, the question still arises today: where are the experts who know the details of climate and environmental protection? Basically, the political ideas of the Republicans, which have developed over decades and reached their peak under Trump, are now being implemented by this judgement: distrust of experts and elites, the decision-making power of the state executive must be kept within narrow limits. In the past, this was done by reducing the budget, but today it is also possible through the decisions of the Supreme Court, which has a completely different composition. 

In an editorial of New York Times it is stated: "The decision is a warning shot to the administrative state. The current conservative majority of the Court is engaged in a counter-revolution against the norms of American society and seeks to curtail federal regulatory efforts to protect the health and safety of the population" (nytimes.com, July 1.7.2022, XNUMX: "The Supreme Court Sabotages Efforts to Protect Public Health and Safety").

Also in a background report by Heilbronn voice the keyword "revolution" is used with a view to the Supreme Court. My concern about the future developments of state and society in the USA, which I express with the words "America lurches" have described in the analysis of Heilbronn voice from Karl Domens approved. He writes on the keyword with a view to the most recent judgments of the Supreme Court Ability to act:  “Guns, abortion, climate protection – in just a week, the court has changed the United States more profoundly than President Biden, with his shaky majorities, is likely to achieve in all four years of his presidency. At the same time, the political system seems increasingly paralyzed because the President and Parliament are not pulling in the same direction, the wafer-thin majorities in both chambers are only on paper and the Republicans, who have shifted to the right, only rely on obstruction instead of compromise.” Elsewhere in his analysis writes Doemens not without bitterness: "But the social realities are indifferent to the constitutional fundamentalists" (Heilbronn voice, July 2.7.2022, XNUMX: “Revolution of the radical robed wearers”; Analysis of Karl Domens).

A shocking description that makes one fear for the political and social future of the leading power in the free-democratic world. I have looked to America with great sympathy for many years. But I am very skeptical about the elections on November 8.11.2022th, 2024 and the presidential elections in XNUMX. Could Americans vote Trump back into the White House? And then what? Which questions will be decisive? The existence of the country's liberal-democratic order structures or the gas prices at the gas stations? 

Coincidence or design flaw? The unique opportunity Donald TrumpHis ability to move three Supreme Court justices to his liking during his presidency made these far-reaching decisions possible. The cancellation of Roe vs Wade and with it the abolition of women's right to decide on an abortion themselves, the relaxation of the already weak gun laws and the weakening of climate protection in an anyway little regulated economy seem to have fallen out of time. “Is same-sex marriage law next?” is the headline of a guest post in the New York Times (nytimes.com, 30.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Is the Right to Same-Sex Marriage Next?"; guest post by Kenji Yoshino). The socio-political step backwards is discussed and lamented in the United States. It is difficult to predict whether he will be noticed by the general public and whether he will play a role in the coming elections.

The columnist Gail collins captioned her post in the opinion section of New York Times: The Supreme Court is pushing us back... way back." With a slightly ironic undertone, she poses the question: "Where do they want to take us?" making the husband happy and the house spotless...everything else was selfish.” Towards the end of her post, Gail collins Deadly serious: “Obviously things have changed now. However, the tipping of Roe set back for some time, and before we are pushed back any further, it should be remembered that birth control is a central point in the life story of women in the modern world" (nytimes.com, 29.6.2022; Gail collins: "The Supreme Court Takes Us Back...Way Back"). And formulated with a view to the Supreme Court Ezra Klein, another opinion columnist who New York Times: "America's age of legal norms is over. Today we live in the age of power." Klein even questions the raison d'être of the Supreme Court: "Dobbs is not the only reason to question the legitimacy of the Supreme Court" (nytimes.com, 30.6.2022; Ezra Klein: "Dobbs Is Not the Only Reason to Question the Legitimacy of the Supreme Court").

Undoubtedly, the Supreme Court has had a number of campaign issues for the past few weeks midterms (the midterm elections) delivered in November this year. Charles M Blow, is confident: It is common experience that the governing party – i.e. the Democrats – with the midterms Lose seats, but this time women are furious as hell at losing their rights and may therefore go against the wisdom of the ages. "It seems that women see more clearly than men what dangers are coming and what courage it takes to fight them" (nytimes.com, 29.6.2022; Charles M Blow: "Women Will Save Us"). By election day on November 8.11.2022th, XNUMX, the consequences of new laws in a number of states will become visible: surveillance, prosecution and possible punishment of the newly defined “sinners”. The Culture War (culture wars) enter a new phase in the USA Andrian Kreye in the Süddeutsche Zeitung Celebration. “For a long time now, voters have been much easier to mobilize with moral furor than with issues such as security, prosperity and justice. That will change America, and the decision against climate protection will also change the rest of the world. Trump's legacy in the Supreme Court has set a fuse that we don't even know where it will end. But it leads to a future that the majority of people in America don't even want" (sueddeutsche.de, July 1.7.2022, XNUMX: "Against the will of the people").

A closer look: gun mania, attempts at control and crying parents

"The only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun" — The only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun." This wisdom proclaimed Wayne LaPierre by the powerful gun lobby organization NRA (National Rifle Association) 2012 after mass shooting an der Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut in which 27 people lost their lives. Such and similar slogans have been heard in the past and are still heard today after every "mass shooting" in the United States - not only from the NRA, but also from politics – mostly from Republicans. This speaks to the notion, ingrained in American society, that the country is made up of "good guys" versus "bad guys" and that the "good guys" can only win if they are armed with all sorts of weapons. The manufacture and sale of all kinds of weapons is a lucrative business in America. That's why the NRA spend a lot of money trying to convince politicians, also with campaign donations, that any restriction on gun ownership is a bad thing.

The NYT journalist Michelle goldberg wrote in her recent column, “Guns are the number one cause of American child deaths. Many conservatives see this as a price for their idea of ​​freedom.” Goldberg noted that after each mass shooting gun sales are increasing. Republicans responded to the massacre of uvalde - 24.5.2022 school children and 19 teachers died there on May 2th, XNUMX - with the serious demand to arm the teachers. Goldberg Called it chilling irony that the more senseless violence stalks America, the more the paramilitary wing of the American right is being strengthened. “The real nightmare isn't primarily that the constant repetition of nihilistic terror doesn't change American politics—it doesn't. Rather, a nightmare is that we just stumble on, helpless, while things take a turn for the worse" (nytimes.com, 27.5.2022; Michelle goldberg: "America May Be Broken Beyond Repair").

The Second Amendment to the Constitution, which has been in force since 1791, is the basis of the ever-new disputes at all levels of politics and administration and has the following wording:

"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

"Since a well-trained militia is necessary for the security of a free state, the right of the people to own and bear arms must not be interfered with."

Describes how firmly the 2nd Amendment is anchored in the way conservative Republicans think and believe Michelle goldberg in her NYT opinion column. she quotes Blake Masters, a leading Arizona Republican: “The 2nd Amendment is not about duck hunting. It's about protecting your family and your country. What did the Taliban do first when they Joe Biden left to Afghanistan? They took away the weapons from the people.” In this worldview, it concludes Michelle goldberg, weapons are a guarantor against exaggerated, too far-reaching action by the state. In this notion, any attempt to regulate guns counts as 'state sprawl'. Not long ago, the Arizona Republican ran an ad showing him wielding a semi-automatic rifle; the explanation: "This weapon was not made for hunting. It's designed to kill people.” If you add the words “family” and “property” to this, you can create a highly emotional election campaign. With the slogan: "The Democrats want to take your guns away from you!" elections can be won in some parts of the USA. However, recently there has been some movement on the issue of guns; this will be discussed later.

Back to the 2nd Amendment. How are the 27 words of the original text to be interpreted today? The 2nd Amendment was added to the US Constitution over 200 years ago. Literally or in the historical context of that time? What were "arms" in 1791 and what are "arms" today? "Is a modern AR-15 rifle comparable to a colonial-era musket?" New York Times asked. It should at least be noted that modern rifles have a much higher firepower than the muskets of the colonial era. And yet Richter goes Clarence Thomas, who recently formulated the Supreme Court's majority decision repealing a 100-year-old New York state statute assumes that modern weapons also fall under the special protections of the constitution. And at the same time, newer protections intended to prevent the dangers of modern weapons are being declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court because they are not "analogue" to the historical protections (nytimes.com, 1.7.2022/15/XNUMX: "A Supreme Court Head-Scratcher: Is a Colonial Musket 'Analogous' to an AR-XNUMX?"; guest post by Joseph Blocher and Darrell AH Miller). Where is the contradiction here?

To understand the gun craze in the United States from a European perspective, you have to look at its roots. I mentioned the 2nd Amendment. The constitution is accorded far more respect and reverence in the USA than in Germany, for example. This worship has a religious component. "The Myth of the 'Good Guy With a Gun' has Religious Roots" - "The myth of the 'good guy with a gun' has religious roots," reads the headline of another guest post in the New York Times. 

Peter Manseau, the author of several books on religious and historical subjects, reports that a number of arms manufacturers see themselves as fulfillers of a Christian mission.

The owners of the armory Cornerstone Arms in the state Colorado stated that they had the name of the company – corner stone in German Cornerstone – chosen because "Jesus Christ is the cornerstone of their business, family and life." The 2nd Amendment is "the cornerstone of the freedom we enjoy as American citizens." Peter Manseau quotes from a study that Evangelical Christians in the US own guns at a higher percentage than other religious groups. Also, the manufacturer of the AR-15 rifle that the shooter mass-shoots in Uvalde, Texas considers selling arms as part of his Christian mission. Also Greg Abbott, The Texas governor has drawn a connecting line to religion after an earlier shooting: The problem is not the guns but the hearts without God. However, the warning in seems important to me Peter Manseau NYT op-ed to paint the line connecting firearms and religion “with too rough a brush”: Evangelical influence on US gun sales, use and marketing does not mean Christianity is to blame for the recent spate of shootings is", because in buffalo, in uvalde and also in other places Christians were among the victims. But it still has to be examined to what extent Christian ideas contribute to that gun culture and the mass shootings, because they help to keep the country well armed (nytimes.com, 23.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX:  "The Myth of the 'Good Guy With a Gun' Has Religious Roots"; guest post by Peter Manseau).

Describes a very special aspect of the American gun mania Patty Davis in a guest post New York Times. Davis has experienced the effects in her own family - her father, the former US President Ronald Reagan barely survived a gun attack in 1981. She describes the incident soberly: “There were many 'good people with guns' that day. That made no difference. Four men were shot dead within seconds.” The guest post is captioned: “How Gun Violence Changed My Father Ronald Reagan, and Our Family” (nytimes.com, 5.7.2022).

Patty Davis describes another root of the American gun mania: Den wild West and the glorification of his story on the big screen and on television, the playgrounds of the Good Guys with a Gun". Davis describes how in her youth in the 1950s western series such as Gunsmoke and The Life and Legend of Wyatt Earp dominated the programs on television. "The men had guns and someone always got shot." But she also describes what gun violence does to the lives of those affected: "You are never the same again when gun violence comes into your life. There are the deep wounds of those who have lost children, relatives, friends - like recently in uvalde and Buffalo happened - for the survivors as well as the children of parkland, whose lives have changed forever, life isn't the same anymore. You wonder when it will happen again; part of you is always wary, always suspicious of strangers...". And she predicts a lousy future for her country: "In a country where everyone is afraid of the other because they may be carrying a hidden weapon, there is a weak country where everything is possible. Fear is the breeding ground for autocracies and history teaches us that the reason democracies collapsed was an atmosphere of fear.”  

Enough is enough! Public pressure became overwhelming

After the recent mass shootings in Buffalo, NY with 10 dead and in Uvalde, TX, where 19 school children and 2 teachers died, the Republicans could no longer sit out the protests and demands from the public and the media to finally “do something”. In uvalde the myth of the "good guy with a gun" was taken to the point of absurdity, because "the good guys", the police who arrived quickly at the scene of the crime, initially waited outside the school building until the requested reinforcements arrived. It took more than an hour before she stormed the building; for 21 people any help came too late. 

Led by the senators Christopher S Murphy (Democrat of Connecticut) and John Cornyn (Republicans from Texas), a compromise that was unusual by American standards was found within a short period of time, breaking the 26-year blockade by Republicans in Congress against any tightening of gun laws. President Biden has that Bipartisan Safer Communities Act signed on June 25.6.2022, XNUMX and noted: "With God's will he will save many lives." New York Times wrote, "This legislation is the most important gun regulation passed through Congress in nearly three decades, but it does not include Democrats' proposals for more gun control."nytimes.com, 25.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: “Biden Signs Gun Bill Into Law, Ending Years of Stalemate”). 

In the Senate, 15 Republicans voted with the Democrats for the compromise, lifting the law above the 60-vote hurdle of the ominous filibuster rule. The Senate vote was 64:34; Despite all the pressure, two-thirds of Republican senators voted against stricter gun laws. In the House of Representatives, the result was even more depressing: Only 14 Republicans voted for the law. But at least it came through! How difficult much of the Republican Party and its supporters are with the issue of gun control became clear when the Republican Party of Texas lost its Senator John Cornyn officially reprimanded for his involvement in negotiating the compromise (nytimes.com, 21.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Bipartisan Gun Bill Clears Initial Vote in Senate").     

Two bitter drops of bitterness spoil the joy

Was it the irony of fate or mere coincidence? The joy on June 23.6.2022, XNUMX, the day on which the Senate voted, which was unusual by American standards Bipartisan Safer Communities Act was spoiled by a Supreme Court decision. The Supreme Court had a hundred-year-old state statute New York overridden which had restricted the carrying of guns in public. The new conservative majority in the Supreme Court said that while states have the right to ban guns in particularly sensitive public places such as schools, courthouses and government buildings, the category of "particularly sensitive public place" should not be overly defined . The judge Clarence Thomas explained the majority decision of the court: "To put it simply, there is for the state New York no historical basis, the island Manhattan Defining it as a “sensitive place” only because there are a lot of people around there and the protection is provided by the New York police.” To me, this is a cynical statement. What difference does it make whether a person in the Metropolitan Museum – which may have been defined as a “sensitive place” – or in the busy Central Park a firearm was killed where the Supreme Court held that the shooter was allowed to carry a gun? In my opinion, anyone who places the right to own a gun above the right to life and physical integrity seems to be chasing after a phantom. 

A representative of Gifford's Law Center – founded by the former congressman Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona, who survived a 2011 gunshot with serious injuries, described the June 23.6.2022, XNUMX dilemma as follows: "The Senate has finally reached a two-party compromise on reforms, largely because a group of Republican senators from their constituencies heard that finally something had to be done.” Then the Supreme Court swept all satisfaction under the carpet with a completely different interpretation of the gun problem than that represented by the Democrats, the independents and even many Republicans. "How can all this continue?" he asks Gifford's Law Center. And indeed, with this new Supreme Court reasoning, not only did the state's hundred-year-old law become law New York "done". Similar provisions in other states, such as California and New Jersey, have also become obsolete. There is a risk that the existence of the just decided Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, such as the extension of background checks for gun buyers under the age of 21 or the rule that allows states to temporarily remove guns from people deemed "dangerous" are immediately questioned. The ban on assault rifles and the ban on installing larger magazines, repeatedly demanded by the Democrats, was not enforceable when the new law was passed. It must be expected that the conflicts over gun control will immediately start all over again. 

It may sound cynical when I say that the next mass shooting is foreseeable anyway or – on closer inspection on July 4th – has already happened. Six people were killed and scores injured when a 22-year-old gunman in the city Highland Park, Illinois - near Chicago shot spectators at the Independence Day parade with an assault rifle. The second bitter fly in the ointment I wrote about in the chapter title. What an ugly twist of fate: Not even on 4th of July, the highest civil holiday in the United States, Americans are safe from rising gun violence. 

Auch Patty Davis, the daughter of the former President Ronald Reagan, has addressed the Supreme Court's recent decision in her op-ed: "When the Supreme Court recently ruled that Americans have the right to carry concealed guns in public, I chilled inside. Now, alarm bells don't just ring at the sight of a dodgy guy with a backpack or that person wearing a thick jacket on a hot day. Now even the inconspicuous person who is hardly noticed could suddenly reach into their pocket and pull out a gun.” 

At the end of her guest post describes Patty Davis a less than optimistic outlook for her country: "Democracy thrives when citizens feel empowered by their country, when they feel empowered in their rights and confident that government is making their lives safer, not more risky. Democracy is drowning in the dark waters of fear, and that is what we are experiencing right now – we are swimming for our lives and wondering why a strident minority wants to drown us.” (nytimes.com, 5.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "How Gun Violence Changed My Father, Ronald Reagann, and Our Family”; guest post by Patty Davis).

Also the NYT columnist Michelle goldberg does not answer the question of stricter gun laws in the USA very optimistically. She sees the future development even darker than Patty Davis. "It will not be possible to change gun laws at the national level as long as the Democrats are dependent on cooperation with a party that is keeping the possibility of an uprising open." Goldberg gives the Republican Party an absolutely bad testimonial, which is still being "eaten up" by Trump's "big lie" and the "stolen election." A Republican party conference in Texas, for example, decided on a very right-wing platform that expressly states that that Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected President of the United States. It was also decided that homosexuality was an “abnormal life plan” (nytimes.com, 19.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Texas Republicans Approve Far-Right Platform Declaring Biden's Election Illegitimate"). 

Americans must decide for themselves who will have the majority in the Senate and House of Representatives in November 2022 and whether Donald Trump will be their presidential candidate again in 2024. But this decision by the Americans has decisive repercussions for Europe and the EU that go far beyond gun laws. In a comment of Süddeutsche Zeitung describes Daniel Brossler the role of Germany after the turning point: "The task is to arm yourself for the worst case - a world with Wladimir Putin, but without Joe Biden“ (sueddeutsche.de, June 12.6.2022, XNUMX: "Turning in time, second part"; comment by Daniel Brossler).

The United States is gripped by an outdated Second Amendment gun myth. The Second Amendment may have been justified long ago when the newly independent republic feared that the former colonial rulers in London would try to bring back the American colonies. This was also a time when in the young United States - except perhaps in the cities of the East - "law" was far away and everyone had to defend themselves, their families and their property. Although those days are long gone, many people in the United States, including the majority of Supreme Court justices, still believe that the right to own a gun should take precedence over the right to life and physical integrity. Michelle goldberg has addressed the vacillating stance of the Republican Party, which, if in doubt, will also accept an attempted uprising like the one on January 6, 2021 if it is a question of staying in power. This is also one of the reasons why I titled my paper “America Lulls”.

Addendum: The gun mania in America continues

Could it be that the gun mania in America has taken on a life of its own and those who have fallen for it have lost touch with real world events and the interests of the people? On May 24.5.2022, 18, an XNUMX-year-old was in the Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas eipenetrated and murdered 19 school children and 2 teachers with an assault rifle. This tragedy was the last straw. For the first time in 26 years, Senate Democrats were able to convince enough Republican senators to finally “do something”: Bipartisan Safer Communities Act to be decided in Congress. 

The shooter in uvalde was 18 years "young" at the time of the crime; he bought the gun legally when he turned 18. the New York Times reported a trend reversal: Years ago, the perpetrators were like that mass shooting often males in their mid-20s to 40s; at 6 of the worst 9 mass shooting between 2018 and mid-2022, the perpetrators were 21 years old or younger. Young people are disproportionately responsible for gun violence – and they are also disproportionately the victims.

In light of this development, a federal judge's decision appears in Fort Worth, Texas from August 25.8.2022, XNUMX almost out of time. The judge proposed by President Trump - so the report of the New York Times noted – will make it even easier for 18 to 20-year-olds to acquire handguns in the future. The decision is not yet final. However, it is an example of how the gun lobby is practically testing how court decisions can overturn existing restrictions on gun ownership. In Texas Years ago, 18 to 20 year olds could not get a gun license. However, last year a law came into force that provided exceptions to this general ban. For a gun organization, this easing did not go far enough, they wanted "guns for all", went to court and were successful. Judge Mark T Pittman from the Texas-North District Court gave a far-fetched explanation: Back then, at the time of the American Revolutionary War - the Declaration of Independence dates from 1776 - many young people aged 17-20 years would have fought; Texas could not produce a single law from its inception that banned this age group from carrying a weapon in self-defense (nytimes.com, 25.8.2022/21/XNUMX: "Judge Strikes Down Law Barring Adults under XNUMX From Carrying Handguns").   

The report by the New York Times not mentioned. However, it seems downright cynical to me that wartime conditions are used to justify why young people are allowed to carry weapons in peacetime without restriction. It will also be in the future Texas and in other American states mass shooting and give crying parents. 

A closer look: The USA on the way to religious fundamentalism?

Katherine Stewart, journalist and author of the book “The Power of Worshipers: Inside the Dangerous Rise of Religious Nationalism" has recently in the New York Times about the annual conference of the association “Road to Majority Conference" in Nashville, Tennessee reported. Compared to previous events of this type Stewart three development trends:

1. the violent rhetoric of the group's top personnel has increased significantly;
2. the theology of Dominionism – this is the belief that "right thinking" Christians have a biblical mandate to control all aspects of government and society - now explicitly held;
3. the movement's strategists are downright dizzy with the legal means at their disposal Supreme Court with the dismantling of Roe vs Wade (overturning the 1973 ruling giving women the right to have an abortion).

Superficially, this exaggerated Kulturkampf can be described as internal affair of American politics and society. But a statement in Stewart's The report makes you sit up and take notice: Although it is quite common to hear combative noise at political events, the violent rhetoric has recently been directed far more against one's own compatriots than against geopolitical opponents outside. The keynote speaker at the conference, the former President Donald Trump said: "The greatest danger to America is not our enemies from outside, however strong they may be. America's greatest danger is the destruction of our country by its own people. And you know what kind of people I'm talking about.” Katherine Stewart In addition, reports that the speakers at the conference outdid each other in badmouthing the "people" Trump was talking about here: The Democrats are "the evil", "tyrannical" and "the enemies from within", who are fighting a war guided the truth. 

mark robinson, the Vice Governor of North Carolina said: "We are in a pitched battle to save this country." He quoted a passage from the Paul letter, which Christian nationalists often use: "I don't know about you, but I have picked up my pack, I have laced my boots, I have put on my helmet, I have put on my full armour." The movement, it writes Katherine Stewart, prepare the “patriots” to continue the assault on democracy in 2022 and 2024 (nytimes.com, July 5.7.2022, XNUMX: "Christian Nationalists Are Excited About What Comes Next").

those described here Christian nationalists have been active in America for many years. However, the Trump presidency has brought them strong support and official blessings from the White House. For these groupings, the abolition of Roe vs Wade the inner-American culture war is far from over. The goal of their biblically based mission can be summed up in this short denominator: Total shaping power, domination and control of American politics and society by an intolerant minority of Christian fundamentalists. These provide the autocrats of this world with the material for mocking free democracy and wanting to defeat it in the end. But this does not seem to bother the Christian fundamentalists. Europe needs to be concerned that larger sections of American politics and society are so aggressively self-absorbed. Regardless of what might happen in the world out there.  

In the following I want the already mentioned judgment of the Supreme Court from June 24.6.2022th, XNUMX, with the Roe vs Wade was repealed in 1973 and has brought scores of women across America to the streets to protest. In fundamental decisions of Supreme Court the question of how to interpret the American constitution is always at stake. The heated discussions about the appointment of judges in the Supreme Court makes it clear that the laws of the US Constitution are not set in stone equally for all time. The content of the terms changes; social and political conditions continue to develop. The interpretation of the constitution is therefore not only about legal issues, but always also about power issues. 

Donald Trump would have the unique opportunity during his term of office to hold three of the nine judge positions of the Supreme Court to be filled again. This quickly resulted in a conservative majority of 6: 3 in the nine-member body - and exactly like that, 6: 3, was the end of June 24.6.2022th, XNUMX Roe vs Wade sealed. All three judges appointed during Trump's term (one woman and two men) voted to overturn Roe vs Wade voted. 

Christian Zaschke, the correspondent of Süddeutsche Zeitung in New York, With a view to a decision by the Supreme Court planned for 2023, wrote that some conservative judges in the USA see themselves as "originalists”; they interpret the constitution as the founding fathers must have meant it literally back in the 1770s. However, most of the lawyers who are currently speaking are of exactly the opposite view (sueddeutsche.de, July 9.7.2022, XNUMX: "The end of democratic conditions is imminent"). In view of the current majority in the Supreme Court, further decisions that have been made today must be expected.

The stack of newspaper reports and comments on the repeal of Roe vs Wade and the consequences is getting higher every day. It is therefore not possible for me to present all aspects - they will one day fill entire bookshelves. The 1973 decision that has now been pulped was a masterpiece in the interpretation and development of American law. A masterpiece not least because the term is in the constitution "Abortion" - "abortion", "termination of pregnancy" - does not occur at all. The 13 English colonies declared their independence on July 4, 1776; The War of Independence did not end until October 17.10.1777th, XNUMX, when the English troops after the lost battle at Saratoga had to surrender. It can be assumed that the delegates of the Federal Assembly, which met in 1787 in Philadelphia to draft the constitution, there were other pressing issues than the question of whether the term "Abortion" should be in the constitution. The lawyer Carol Sanger - she teaches at the New Yorker Columbia University – cites a key reason why this term is not in the Constitution: “The American Constitution is a blueprint for government and explains the responsibilities and rights between the federal government and the states. The founding fathers couldn't possibly put everything in there" (sueddeutsche.de, 11.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "If you have a baby in the USA, you are on your own"; Interviewed by Nicola's friend with Carol Sanger).

But how could the Supreme Court rule in 1973 that American women have the constitutional right to choose whether to have an abortion?

It worked then - and it works today, after the repeal of Roe vs Wade – the question of who decides on the number of children to be born in a family and, if an abortion is permitted, who determines the scope within which it can be carried out with impunity? 

The Roe vs. Wade Decision 1973:

Women have the right – based on their right to privacy – to terminate a pregnancy until the fetus is viable (then up to 28 weeks of pregnancy; later up to 24 weeks). However, after the third month of pregnancy, the state may only prescribe the abortion procedure if this is necessary to protect the health of the woman (sueddeutsche.de, June 24.6.2022, XNUMX: "In the USA, the national right to abortion falls").

In another 1992 decision, the Supreme Court upheld the 1973 principles that women have the constitutional right to terminate a pregnancy until the fetus has reached viability.)

Carol Sanger describes in the above-mentioned interview - it was given before the decision of the Supreme Court on June 24.6.2022, XNUMX - how the abortion debate in the USA has changed over time: "For years, the right has made a great effort that Roe vs Wade can be tilted. They've been working on it since 1992, but the policy behind it has since changed. It is now less a moral than a political question, which is due to the merger of Catholic opponents of abortion with evangelical groups. The movement has grown stronger, it has swelled, like a wave. Then Trump came along, and what also fueled the issue was the introduction of same-sex marriage, because that was one of those things that you can really hate if you're conservative. Now the only issue left is abortion, and it has become increasingly important for politics to appease core conservative voters.”

Even after the verdict of June 24.6.2022, XNUMX, the violent cultural-political disputes in the USA will continue. You have now settled on the political level between the conservative Republicans and the various organizations of the Pro Life movement (Right to life) on the one hand and the liberal democrats and the organizations of Pro Choice Movement (right to freedom of choice for women) on the other hand. In a report by New York Times is talk of decades of uncompromising ideological battle between those for whom the decision to terminate a pregnancy is a right and those for whom it ends the termination of a life. Therefore, the judgment of the Supreme Court of June 24.6.2022, 24.6.2022 triggered violent protests on the one hand and great jubilation on the other. “The XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX ruling sent a shockwave that has spurred conservatives to fight for each individual state and Democrats have decided to make abortion rights regained the central issue of the midterms close" (nytimes.com, 24.6.2022/6/3: "In 50-to-XNUMX Ruling, Supreme Court Ends Nearly XNUMX Years of Abortion Rights"). Before the Roe vs. Wade verdict Since 1973, there was an unmanageable patchwork quilt of states in the USA with varying degrees of strictness regarding abortion regulations. Now that the landmark judgment of 1973 has been overturned, this patchwork quilt will be back. The new conservative majority in the Supreme Court had had the judge in charge Samuel A Alito Jr argues Roe vs Wade was a monstrous mistake from the start.

It would go beyond the scope of this paper to detail the respective arguments of the majority and minority judges. Differing viewpoints on individual questions were also put on record from the majority group. For example, the question arose as to whether, after the Supreme Court's decision repealing a constitutional right, there was a risk that other rights would also be repealed. Judge Breath attached importance to the statement that the judgment of June 24.6.2022, XNUMX only concerned the right to an abortion and no other right. Judge Clarence Thomas, who ultimately carried the majority decision with said it was after the annulment of Roe vs Wade but it is logical that the court should now review previous decisions, such as contraception, homosexuality and same-sex marriage. An obvious reference to conservative organizations, which the Supreme Court, with its conservative majority, would like to take up. It is also an indication that the culture war in American society will continue with undiminished severity. The cancellation of Roe vs Wade was just the beginning. 

Given the judge's insinuations Clarence Thomas It is not surprising that the Democrats in Washington DC aktively to secure the right to same-sex marriage, which until now – similar to the right to an abortion “only” was secured by an earlier decision of the Supreme Court – to be secured by law. On July 19.7.2022, 267, the House of Representatives passed the Respect for Maryage Act which recognizes same-sex marriage at the federal level. In the decision, 47 Republicans along with Democrats voted in favor of the law. This number of Republican supporters is far from a majority in their faction - more than three quarters of Republicans voted against the law. But the level of Republican support is remarkable for a party where social conservatism has been the litmus test for decades, the report says New York Times noted. However, the consent in Senate highly uncertain. Of the 50 Republicans, 10 would have to approve the law to Filibuster Rule to overcome (nytimes.com, 19.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "House Moves to Protect Same-Sex Marriage From Supreme Court Reversal").

A strange-looking justification by Richter Breath for cancellation of Roe vs Wade be quoted. Breath argued, among other things, the 1973 justification for Roe vs Wade was "extraordinarily weak" and had devastating consequences. "Far from reaching a nationwide solution to the abortion issue Roe and Casey sparked heated debates and deepened divisions.” It was time to respect the constitution, which would put the abortion issue back in the hands of popularly elected MPs (nytimes.com, June 24.6.2022, 6: "In 3-to-50 Ruling, Supreme Court Ends Nearly XNUMX Years of Abortion Rights").

About the consequences of the cancellation of Roe vs Wade  and "putting the abortion issue back in the hands of elected MPs" is yet to be discussed. However, the judge's comment strikes me as a red herring Alito, Roe vs. Wade have "ignited heated debates and deepened the division in the country." The reason for the "heated debates" since 1973, however, was that the abortion opponents Roe vs Wade could not or did not want to accept from the beginning and had written the abolition that has now taken place on their banners. Apparently judges Breath also ignored the announcements of the radical culture fighters, the repeal of Roe vs Wade be just the beginning. The hints of his fellow judge Clarence Thomas, it is only logical that the court is now reviewing other constitutionally granted rights, shows the future direction of the American Culture War on. The disputes are then fought in the legislatures and before the courts of the 50 states. With the cancellation of Roe vs Wade There will be a legal and political patchwork quilt over abortion in America. Attempts by culture fighters to patronize, control and ultimately punish women for following a legal position that lasted from 1973 to 2022 will continue.

Ross Douthat, the conservative opinion columnist New York Times assumes that the disputes will not stop after the judgment of June 24.6.2022, XNUMX. He wrote a comment on it, captioned "The end of Roe is just the beginning" (nytimes.com, 25.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "The End of Roe Is Just the Beginning"). However, forecast Douthat completely different political front lines and goals. He writes of a "social vision" below that of today pro-life activists would complement the "suspicious and punitive" elements of their previous policies with elements of prenatal counseling and postnatal support for women. "In such a world, serious abortion restrictions would be defensible in the most conservative parts of the country - but probably nowhere else - until the long-term prospects for an America-wide abortion right improve." Douthat wrote in my opinion rightly of a “social vision”, equipped with many ifs and buts, the realization of which is not in the foreseeable future. The current fronts are not only ideologically hardened. A compromise between Pro Life and per choice, that will not sooner or later end up before the Supreme Court again, seems to me unfeasible in a country that has not yet developed a modern healthcare system. In the United States, 45 million people do not have health insurance (sueddeutsche.de, 22.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "The United States is in grave danger"; comment by Christian Zaschke). The conservatives in particular are "working" persistently to ensure that this remains the case or that the existing system is even dismantled. 

This topic is also discussed in a guest contribution New York Times addressed: “The United States is characterized to a frightening degree by being the most dangerous country in the industrialized world to give birth to a child. Overall, they are in 55th place worldwide" (nytimes.com, June 26.6.2022, XNUMX: "No, Justice Alito, Reproductive Justice Is in the Constitution"; guest post by Michele Goodwin). Can one hope that the conservatives of all people will develop a modern social policy that will be part of a progressive social policy? The conservative socio-political ideas are reflected in the fact that the 26 states in which the strictest abortion laws will soon apply also have the lowest average minimum wages. Ten of these states have so far refused to expand Medicaid the state insurance program for the socially disadvantaged (IPG press service, 4.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Oops! – In the United States, some anti-abortion advocates are pushing for the expansion of the social safety net. Are the Conservatives suddenly left?”). 

The reality is different, as can be seen in a case that has occupied the United States for days, right up to the White House. In the state Indiana the public prosecutor's office investigates a doctor who is with a ten-year-old girl from the neighboring state Ohio had an abortion. The doctor is accused of not reporting the abortion to the relevant authorities, which the doctor denies. The history of the case is oppressive; it can happen again and again in this or a similar way in the future: The ten-year-old girl became pregnant after being raped ... Yes Roe vs Wade, the previous legal basis for an abortion no longer exists since June 24.6.2022, XNUMX. In its place came Ohio one of the strictest abortion laws in the USA, which makes legal abortion after the fifth to sixth week of pregnancy impossible, even in cases of rape and incest. Hence the trip to the neighboring country Indiana, where now the doctor has also been targeted by the public prosecutor.

Two statements about this:

1. "I am so sad that our country is failing them when they need us most. Physicians must be able to get people the medical care they need, when and where they need it" (The doctor from Indiana on Twitter).
2. "A ten-year-old girl was raped in Ohio – ten years old. She was forced to travel to another state to terminate her pregnancy and perhaps save her life. Imagine being that little girl. Ten years old.” … Forcing such a girl to give birth to her rapist's child is the most extreme thing he can imagine. (President Joe Biden in an emotional statement)
   (Quotes from sueddeutsche.de, July 15.7.2022, XNUMX: "Investigations against a doctor after an abortion in a ten-year-old girl").

child pregnancies

The case described Ohio drew public attention in America to a very specific question: What happens when children have children? The figures that are given in the New York Times mentioned are not very up to date. In 2017, 4.460 pregnancies were registered in girls under the age of 15 in the United States. About 44 percent had a termination. It is noted that the numbers in this age group have declined sharply in recent decades. The reasons given for this are the possibilities of contraception and the decline in sexual activity in this age group. In Ohio 2020 girls under the age of 52 received an abortion in 15 (nytimes.com, July 16.7.2022, XNUMX: “What New Abortion Bans Mean for the Youngest Patients”).

According to this report New York Times Since the verdict of June 24.6.2022, XNUMX, almost a dozen states have enacted laws that prohibit abortion even in the case of rape and incest. It is possible that this problem was overlooked because of the satisfaction with the verdict in the hurry of the legislative process, or whether the fact that children would have children was simply accepted. The NYT report describes how rapes are not uncommon by close family members. "Barriers for young people in ban states will multiply," the report quotes a University of California medic as saying. 

statements from pro-life activists indicate why they do not want to allow an abortion even in the case of rape. Kristen Hawkins, the president of the organization Students for Life of America said, "The violence of rape is not mitigated by the violence of abortion." However, doctors caring for these youngest patients point out that this attitude completely ignores the needs and desires of young victims and their families.  

The end of Roe – A legal patchwork quilt is created

What will happen after the cancellation of Roe vs Wade happened through the decision of the Supreme Court of June 24.6.2022th, 50? After nearly XNUMX years of nationwide equality, American women were stripped of the right to choose whether to terminate a pregnancy. In place of this right, the Supreme Court has given states the right to make their own abortion laws; in individual states, earlier laws come into force again. Within a few years, a patchwork quilt of abortion laws will emerge across the United States, with vastly different definitions of what is required and what is not. The case of the ten-year-old girl in Ohio, the second part of which is in the neighboring state Indiana played is an example of the new complexity. "America's post-row-Chaos is here,” captioned it Michelle goldberg a comment in the New York Times (nytimes.com, 1.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "America's Post-Roe Chaos is Here"). At first glance, this is legal chaos, but it will result in a wide range of human suffering.

The Kulturkampf is now being waged at the 50-state level. "The Overturning of the Groundbreaking Supreme Court Ruling"Roe vs. Wade" of 1973 and the immediate ensuing bans on abortion in numerous Republican states sent shockwaves through the United States Heilbronn voice and states soberly what is to come: "Supreme Court abortion verdict further polarizes torn America" ​​(Heilbronn voice, 28.6.2022/1973/XNUMX: "Supreme Court unleashes shockwave"). The "new reality" in the republican states forced the clinics to cancel appointments that had already been made. “When I went to bed that night everything was ready. And today everything is the same as it was before XNUMX,” said one woman WestVirginia. As of June 25.6.2022, 9, abortion was banned in at least XNUMX states and was immediately officially monitored in the conservative states. In contrast, the authorities in liberal states and districts (counties) reacted cautiously. You will not violate your own values ​​by investigating doctors who have performed abortions. In Tennessee The chaos became particularly clear: the Attorney General requested that an injunction be overturned so that he could implement a law banning abortion after 6 weeks. At the same time, the District Attorney in Nashville, TN, he will not prosecute doctors who have performed abortions. 

In Kansas is abortion still legal; in the neighboring state Missouri a ban came into effect on the day the Supreme Court decision was announced. In Kansas should be an initiative of voters to decide whether abortion should continue to be protected under the state constitution. (The result of this vote was for the pro-life activists to the debacle). In Idaho, North Dakota and Texas restrictions based on previously passed legislation will come into effect 30 days after the Supreme Court's decision (nytimes.com, June 25.6.2022, XNUMX: “Americans Face New Abortion Landscape in Wake of Roe Decision”).

In Texas was already before the end of Roe decided on a perfidious legal construction that did not prohibit abortion but made it practically impossible. It was not the state that became prosecutors, but the citizenry. Anyone who finds out about an abortion can demand a large sum of money from those affected and those involved. This opens the door to denunciations and private "accounts". However, the result is that the clinics in Texas before the verdict  stopped having abortions. Also Louisiana already had a ban on abortion before the decision of the Supreme Court – in a way, in reserve, a so-called Trigger Law – approved and put into effect immediately. "This is the day the Lord made," the Republican attorney general said. Already before Roe vs Wade hatte Louisiana one of the most rigid abortion laws. Abortion is now forbidden there, even after rape and incest, and is threatened with imprisonment of up to 15 years (Heilbronn voice, June 25.6.2022, XNUMX: “Deep Frustration and Dances of Joy”).        

In Wisconsin the Democratic governor fights against the Republican majority in Parliament. It is about the validity of a hundred-year-old law that makes abortion a punishable offense even in the case of rape and incest. A court case is pending (nytimes.com, July 16.7.2022, XNUMX: “What New Abortion Bans Mean for the Youngest Patients”). 

Since the end of Roe on June 24.6.2022, XNUMX, the newspaper columns are full of reports about detailed questions about the growing chaos and the resulting problem situations. Given the scope of the Supreme Court's decision, this is not surprising. "For the first time in history, the Supreme Court has overturned an established constitutional right that touches on a most fundamental human concern: the dignity and right to choose what happens to one's body... without losing full self-determination over one's body women their position as equal members of American society,” says the New York Times the scope of the court decision and its consequences in a nutshell (nytimes.com, 24.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX; Editorial: "The Ruling Overturning Roe Is an Insult to Women and the Judicial System"). Going forward, the legal patchwork will become more complicated with each new law in one of the “restrictive” states. At the same time, new and humanely difficult fields of activity are emerging for law enforcement agencies and courts. For example, doctors who believe that an abortion is necessary to save a mother's life are accused of trying to perform an illegal abortion. the New York Times tells how women have had to endure painful experiences after a miscarriage when they turned to clinics for help. They were initially turned away because there was no "imminent danger". More than half of these cases developed life-threatening infections and other problems (nytimes.com, 17.7./18.7.2022: "They Had Miscarriages, and New Abortion Laws Obstructed Treatment"). Abortion tourism will now emerge from the restrictive to the liberal states and not all women and families will be able to afford the trip.

There is also a discussion about what bans and controls the restrictive states will come up with to prevent abortions. Will traveling to another country become a criminal offence? How will the mailing of abortion pills be handled and controlled in the future? “Closing a clinic is one thing; however, it is much more difficult to control the mailing or receipt of medication, or traveling to a state where pills are legal to get a consultation and get the pills (nytimes.com, 26.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Abortion Pills Take the Spotlight as State Impose Abortion Bans").

The reports on a completely different aspect of the verdict New York Times: The extensive ban on abortions will have a long-term negative impact on the economic development of the restrictive states. the NYT uses the term here brain drain loss of knowledge and intelligence. According to the newspaper, among the young, well-trained skilled workers in the United States, what else is happening in addition to good job opportunities in the respective states plays a role. That's why economists are warning states where powerful culture wars loom over abortion issues to be cautious. Sandy Baruah, the President of the Business Association Detroit Regional Chamber referred to the great interest of young professionals in such topics: "I don't want to stop young professionals from pursuing Michigan to come and for companies in Michigan to work.” Economically strong states such as Texas could afford to take such points of view less seriously, so Baruha, but: "Michigan must use every possible advantage.” 

In Michigan there is a heated argument going on between the democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on the validity of a nearly 100-year-old abortion ban passed by Roe vs Wade became obsolete but had never been formally repealed. A similar argument is going on in North Carolina. The Democratic Governor Roy Cooper threatened to veto any abortion ban that Republicans should pass in Parliament, saying such an abortion ban would have “negative effects on the state's economic growth.” The US Commerce Secretary Gina Raymond pointed out that states that adopt a rigid ban on abortion will collapse economically. The companies conducted awar for talentAnd with increasing numbers of women graduating from college, it's all about female talent.

The outcome of the disputes on the economic front is (still) open. Some large, conservative-governed states such as Texas, Fla and Georgia ignore warnings that, for example, anti-gay policies or laissez-faire gun laws could affect investments. This could change as the lifting of Roe in the voting behavior of women (nytimes.com, 11.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: “States With Abortion Bans Risk Losing Their Economic Edge”).

Nobody expects the American Culture War will be over with the decision of the Supreme Court of June 24.6.2022, XNUMX - on the contrary! "We must not rest until the sanctity of life is established in each and every state," said the former vice president Mike Pence, one of the leaders of the evangelical wing of the Republicans on the day of the sentencing (Heilbronn voice, 28.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Supreme Court sends shockwaves"). Some pro-life activists are calling for abortion to be prosecuted as murder. "The court decision was just the beginning..." the captioned New York Times a report on the expected clashes. That National Right to Life Committee is striving to anchor the ban on abortion through an amendment in the US constitution as a major goal (nytimes.com, June 26.6.2022, XNUMX: "The Ruling Was Just the Beginning: Both Sides Mobilize Over Abortion").

What does "imminent danger to life" mean in practice?

In the meantime, the effects of the judgment and the subsequent laws in the republican-governed states can be seen in the everyday life of the clinics and their staff. A doctor in the emergency room of a clinic in Houston, TX summed up the situation: "Having to consult a lawyer in an emergent situation is a whole new ballgame" - "Having to consult a lawyer in an emergency situation is a whole new ballgame." In Texas the legal situation was particularly complicated by the judgment of the Supreme Court and by a new regulation of the federal state. Abortion is only permitted if the mother's life is in acute danger (at risk of death). Clinics and doctors, together with lawyers, are now trying to create lists of criteria to legally limit the term “acute danger to life”. Some clinics try to decide on an abortion in individual cases in a task force. The experts are aware that a list that enumerates a number of criteria harbors certain dangers: “The medicine is too complex, the symptoms and condition of one patient are never the same as those of another, and it can quickly deteriorate .” Before the repeal of Roe vs Wade the doctor was able to offer the patient a range of treatment options. "But now it's over with this decision-making option," said the doctor dr Abigail Cutler from the university hospital Madison, Wisconsin Celebration. “My hands are tied; Not being able to help a person standing in front of me is devastating.” Cases have now come to light of women encountering serious health problems while waiting for a doctor's decision.

This uncertainty and the discussion about "having to wait until it becomes potentially life-threatening" is now occupying politicians at the highest level. In July 2022, the U.S. federal government wrote in Washington dc to the institutions of the health system and referred to the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act, a federal law that tells clinics how to behave when patients are brought to the emergency room in a critical condition, such as those who have already gone into labor. In this letter from Washington It is pointed out that an abortion must also take place in countries that are prohibited if it is necessary to stabilize the state of health of the woman. Ken Praxton, the Minister of Justice of Texas objected to this assistance in interpreting federal law. This would turn the emergency departments from clinics into “walk-in abortion clinics” – “abortion clinics with open doors.”

(The information and quotations in this section are taken from a comprehensive report by the New York Times in which, above all, the difficulties that arise in the problem states Texas, Arizona and Wisconsin to be discribed. These developments cannot be described in detail here. Roughly that in Wisconsin through the repeal of Roe vs Wade a law from 1849 came up again. While the governor and attorney general are seeking court scrutiny to determine whether this law still applies, law enforcement officials have announced they will follow the law. This has the consequence that in Wisconsin no abortions are currently being performed (nytimes.com, 10.9.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: “Medical Impact of Roe Reversal Goes Well Beyond Abortion Clinics, Doctors Say”).   

Joe Biden: Vote. vote. Vote!   

The issue of abortion is in the election campaign before the midterms on November 8.11.2022th, XNUMX, especially for the seats in the parliaments of the individual states. "For God's sake, there's an election in November. vote. vote. vote. Vote” – “For God's sake, there will be an election in November. Go vote, vote, vote, vote!” President Biden urged his countrymen. With its majority decision, the Supreme Court challenged women to use their political power to reinstate abortion laws (nytimes.com, July 8.7.2022, XNUMX: "Under Pressure, Biden Issues Executive Order on Abortion").   

The two Democratic senators Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts  and Tina Smith from Minnesota go one step further in their political objectives. In a guest post for the New York Times call for fundamental structural changes for your country:

"To repair the damage that Republicans have done to our system in their quest to control women's lives, we need comprehensive democratic reform: changing the composition of the courts, reforming Senate rules such as filibustering, and... even a correction of the outdated voting system. This allows candidates to become president even though they don't get the most votes. So could George W. Bush and Donald Trump nominate five judges who agreed to end abortion rights.” (nytimes.com, 25.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX; Guest post: "Elizabeth Warren and Tina Smith: We've Seen What Will Happen Next to America's Women". German version in IPG press service, 28.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Time to Strike Back").

________________________________________________________________________

Survey figures immediately after the judgment of June 24.6.2022, XNUMX

Almost 60 percent of Americans and two-thirds of women reject the Supreme Court's decision. 58 percent would support a federal law legalizing abortion.

56 percent of women assume that the decision will worsen the living conditions for women. 

16 percent see the decision as an improvement in women's lives.

(nytimes.com, June 26.6.2022, XNUMX: "The Ruling Was Just the Beginning: Both Sides Mobilize Over Abortion").

Poll numbers in early July 2022

61 percent of voters reject the Supreme Court's decision;

29 percent are for it.

(Nytimes.com, 12.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "A Culture Warrior Goes Quiet: DeSantis Dodges Questions on Abortion Plans").

________________________________________________________________________

Based on similar state polling results Georgia  — there, more than half of voters oppose further abortion restrictions Stacey Abrams, the Democratic nominee for governor says she will make abortion a priority in her campaign. Abrams Books it is clear that many people are dissatisfied with the Democrats in Washington in view of the economic problems and high inflation. Therefore, in the November election, the electorate will have to weigh up whether the current worries about money outweigh the undermining of constitutional rights (nytimes.com, July 21.7.2022, XNUMX: "Stacey Abrams aims to put abortion at the center of the Georgia governor's race").

US Elections 2022 and 2024 – Impact on Europe

On November 8.11.2022th, XNUMX the midterm elections will take place in the USA – the midterms instead of. In an extraordinary speech before the Independence hall in Philadelphia President Biden died on 1.9.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX midterms described as a "battle for the soul of this nation". "Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans stand for an extremism that threatens the very foundations of the republic.” The Republicans and the right-wing TV station Fox News shot back sharply. Stephen Miller, a former Trump White House adviser called Biden a "Marxist tyrant who has crossed the Rubicon." 

Biden held in Philadelphia A true American future speech: “We will make the 21st century another American century because the world needs us. That's what we need to focus our efforts on. Not to the past, not to the divisive cultural struggles, not to a policy of complaining, but to a future that we can build together.” (Text of the speech:  nytimes.com, September 1.9/2.9.2022, XNUMX: “Full Transcript of President Biden's Speech in Philadelphia”; report of New York Times: nytimes.com, September 1.9.2022, XNUMX: “Biden Warns That American Values ​​Are Under Assault by Trump-Led Extremism”; report of Süddeutsche Zeitung: sueddeutsche.de, 2.9.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Biden, the Dark Knight"; report of Heilbronn voice on September 3.9.2022, XNUMX: "Biden takes off his kid gloves").

All 8.11.2022 members of the House of Representatives, 435 of the 35 members of the Senate, the governors in 100 of the 36 states and the representatives in the states will be elected on November 50th, 9. The Democrats currently have a 50-seat majority in the House of Representatives. Each party has XNUMX seats in the Senate. The Democrats can vote with the Vice President Kamala Harris as the head of the Senate, achieve a decisive majority if all 50 Democrats agree. The complicated one Filibuster Rule in the Senate's rules of procedure, which must be overcome by a majority of 60 votes, but which may not be applied to all legislative projects, I do not want to explain in detail here. Overcoming the filibuster has become less and less successful lately and is then celebrated as a "small miracle". The current distribution of seats in the Senate, combined with the Filibuster Rule has repeatedly prevented far-reaching legislative projects in recent times. The political class in the United States seems increasingly self-absorbed - the country is stagnant. 

First survey results - fundamental doubts about the system

A first survey of New York Times To the midterms The results were inconclusive: A majority of Americans - 58 percent of those surveyed - believe that the American system of government is not working and needs major reforms or even a complete overhaul. However, the justification for this varies greatly depending on the party preference of the respondents.

Republican dissatisfaction stems from widespread but unproven doubts about the legitimacy of the national elections. Belief in the "Big Lie" is widespread among Republicans; 76 percent are of the opinion that Trump's actions after the 2020 election - including the clear request to his supporters to storm the Capitol on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX - "only asserted his rights to contest the election."

The Democrats are dissatisfied with the system of government because, although they provide the President and have a majority in both houses of Congress, the Republicans and their allies in the "Gerrymandering" cut-to-size parliaments together with the Supreme Court repeatedly succeed in thwarting the political goals of the Democrats. 

The New York Times describes a far-reaching change in the assessment of the tasks of the government for both parties. For generations, Democrats have advocated that government is the power for good and that the country needs strong government. Republicans proclaimed just the opposite; they tried again and again to limit the power of the government. Meanwhile, more and more people on both sides of the political spectrum have doubts that the government is actually trying to listen to voters' wishes. This means that both sides are dissatisfied and this shows the deep turmoil in the country. Young people are the least confident about their country's future. The NYT report quoted a 22-year-old non-partisan information technician as saying, "There's no point in voting because the country doesn't work as long as the two-party system exists." 

Of concern is the suggestion that most optimistic is a regular viewer of Fox News – that ultra-conservative home broadcaster Donald Trump looks to the future. He expects significant changes in Washington: "They vote the Democrats out!" (nytimes.com, 13.7.2022: "As Faith Flags in US Government, Many Voters Want to Upend the System"; result of Times/Siena College survey of 849 registered voters. The margin of error is plus/minus 4 percent).

"America is back" took the Europeans and the EU after taking office Joe Biden relieved to know. But here, too, both parties have developed quite different objectives – if at all. Among the Democrats, some elected officials, not least the Democratic Senator, are preventing Joe Manchin III from West Virginia, that their own president can push through his ambitious domestic political agenda. "Biden's green reforms are pending," headlines the Heilbronn voice on the 19.7.2022.  Manchin informed his party friends at short notice that he would not support a supplementary budget that earmarked money for climate protection. Among other things, subsidies for the purchase of e-cars were planned. In doing so feels Manchin on the safe side with its blockade policy. He's from the coal state west virginia, and he knows that only 1 percent of Americans see climate change as America's top concern. Gasoline prices and inflation of 9,1 percent (as of 27.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX) are burning Americans much harder (Heilbronn voice, 19.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Biden's green reforms are on the way out"). 

A side note

The description that follows shows the dilemma into which the Democrats had maneuvered themselves in around mid-July 2022. Typically, the president's party loses votes and seats in Congress in the midterm elections. But in the meantime, own mistakes also contributed to the poor reputation in public. It is therefore all the more remarkable what happened a short time later on the American political scene.

Senator Manchin not only blocked the agenda of his own party at the time mentioned. This also indirectly affected Europe. In June, the US Secretary of the Treasury Janet L Yellen signed the agreement on a global minimum tax together with representatives from 130 countries for the USA. As is well known, this is about the taxation of globally active corporations, which have hitherto avoided, with clever strategies, that they are taxed in the country where they do their business and make profits. A minimum tax rate of 15 percent was a key point of the agreement and also part of its negotiation Olaf Scholz was involved during his time as Federal Minister of Finance. On July 14.7.2022, XNUMX, Senator read Manchin hopes that the United States would ratify the agreement, and with it worldwide support for the agreements, were shattered. Manchin argued just like the Republicans in the US Senate: "We don't want to go down the international path now, which many countries don't support anyway and which puts our internationally active corporations under pressure - because this damages the American economy" (nytimes.com, 18.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: “How Joe Manchin Left a Global Tax Deal in Limbo”). The EU and above all Germany were faced with the mammoth task of having to keep campaigning for the global minimum tax – certainly not an easy task without the USA.

And again a small miracle happens

Just a few days after hearing of the end of the domestic political program of Joe Biden had written, another small miracle happened: On July 28.7.2022, XNUMX, the Southgerman newspaper, that the Democrats have agreed on a smaller climate and social package. Apparently, the colleagues had succeeded Manchin to change their minds - perhaps also with concessions - to soften them up. He will approve a $430 billion investment program for healthcare and climate protection - not without kicking Biden's original plans: "Build Back Better is dead," the senator noted WestVirginia. He was referring to Biden's original $3,5 trillion program. (sueddeutsche.de, July 28.7.2022, 15: Democrats agree on smaller climate and social package"). And the international agreement on a XNUMX percent minimum tax also seems to have been saved (Heilbronn voice, 29.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Unexpected tailwind for Biden"). 

Jamelle Bouie, an opinion columnist New York Times makes very basic statements about what happened here: "Joe Manchin is a symptom, but the Senate is sick." The second chamber of the US Congress has developed into an institution that puts the popular ideas of the House of Representatives in their place. “In the Senate popular laws die,” writes bouie, "or if they are not killed, only passed in a truncated and shredded form... The Senate was designed to keep the people in check in order to limit democracy and the possibilities of popular representation" (nytimes.com, 19.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Joe Manchin Is a Symptom, but It's the Senate That's Sick"). For background information: In the US Senate, each state has two members, no matter how many people live there. Two senators come from the state New York with 19,51 million inhabitants; two senators also come from the state of Wyoming with 581.000 inhabitants.      

What will the midterms of 2022 bring?

In normal times, the president's party loses seats in the House of Representatives, and often in the Senate as well. The voters use the midterms (midterm elections) to give a verdict on the President's work. Biden's approval ratings are currently underwhelming; only 33 percent of Americans are satisfied with his job. Even within his own party, there are voices calling for a different Democratic candidate in 2024 (sueddeutsche.de, 19.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Is Joe Biden too old for another term?"). And often the voter turnout is at the midterms less than in the elections, which are about the presidency.

After all that, the Democrats should expect to lose their majorities in Congress on 8.11.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX. Joe Biden would then become one Lame Duck (a lame duck). But times are not normal at the moment, both in terms of political issues and actors.

David Leonard, of every morning for the readers of the New York Times sorts, classifies and links the news and articles of his colleagues, wrote on July 13.7.2022, XNUMX that – despite the low approval rating for the President – ​​the Democrats and Republicans in the forecasts for the midterms are about the same. This was a surprising finding for me at first; but as already mentioned: times are anything but “normal” in the USA at the moment.

Leonhard and his colleague Nate cohn referred to a notable migration of voters that has not just become apparent: in the past, people with college degrees generally voted for the Republicans, while voters from the working class (blue-collar voters) leaned towards the Democrats. According to the two journalists, the opposite is true today. “Democrats' social liberalism—on issues such as migration and immigration, marijuana, LGBT rights, women's empowerment, abortion, and others—is increasingly attracting college-educated people while turning off the more culturally conservative, working-class voters The NYT report cites recent polls: Among registered voters without a college degree, Republicans have a nearly 20 percent lead. Among college grads for Democrats by nearly 30 percentage points(nytimes.com 13.7.22/XNUMX/XNUMX: "The Morning" - "A tight race"). However, the decisive factor will be: who actually goes to the polls and who stays at home on election day.

"Roe is on the ballot"

President Biden announced on June 24.6.2022, XNUMX, the day the Supreme Court pronounced its verdict. "Personal liberties are on the ballot." The five conservative judges and their colleague Amy Coney Barrett had ruled exactly as the politicians who made their nomination and appeal to the court possible expected. But they seem to have failed to consider, consciously or unconsciously, how American women would react to their verdict. A survey published on June 26.6.2022, 67 shows that XNUMX percent of women in the USA support the repeal of Roe vs Wade decline. 52 percent of Americans see the verdict as a step backwards for the country. But how will this repeal of a constitutional right guaranteed by the Supreme Court almost 50 years ago affect the ballot box on November 8, 2022?

Both parties are convinced that the issue of abortion can electrify their respective electoral bases. “The critical question remains whether the swing voters – especially the independent women from the suburbs, the suburban, those currently preoccupied with uncertain economic developments will turn their attention to the controversy over abortion rights” (nytimes.com, 24.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "'It's Become Real': Abortion Decision Roils Midterms, Sending Fight to States"). This headline indicates that the abortion issue will now be decided at the state level, because the Supreme Court has transferred the regulatory powers to them with immediate effect.

What was formulated as a question in the previous report – how are women in the Suburbs react to the verdict? - became more and more clear afterwards: "Women Are So Fired Up to Vote, I've Never Seen Anything Like It", overthrown Tom Bonier his guest post in the New York Times on the 3.9.2022. Bonier is a statistician, market researcher and political adviser to the Democratic Party. And he proves his enthusiasm about the huge interest of women in the coming elections with concrete numbers Kansas, where the Republicans tried to remove the right to abortion from the constitution and lost massively in the corresponding referendum. After the announcement of Roe on June 24.6.2022, 69 there was a change in the applications for entry in the electoral rolls: 3 percent of the applications were made by women; a total reversal from the six months before the ruling, when women's new claims were just 40 percentage points higher than men's. After the verdict, the women were XNUMX points ahead of the men. Bonier writes: “In the 28 years that I have been doing election analysis, I have never seen anything quite like what has happened in American politics in the last two months: women are registering to vote like never before … Given this development, everyone can Throw past assumptions out the window and expect Democrats to break all historical trends.” Bonier refers here to the popular notion that the President's party will lose seats in Congress in the midterm elections (nytimes.com, 3.9.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Women Are So Fired Up to Vote, I've Never Seen Anything Like It"; guest post by Tom Bonier).

Statements by the former president are noteworthy Donald Trump, who, due to the exceptional opportunity to nominate three conservative judges during his term of office, made a significant contribution to the repeal of Roe vs Wade contributed. While Trump publicly hailed the decision as a victory, he noted internally that it was bad for Republicans. Trump called the ominous law of "stupid". Texas which makes most abortions impossible after just six weeks by giving citizens the right to privately seek large sums of money from anyone who has assisted or assisted in an abortion. The taxi driver who drove a woman to the clinic is also considered a “helper”. Trump, too, has the female voters in his fears Suburbs in view. His internal statement makes it clear that all of this is less about the arguments of the pro-life movement,Trump thinks primarily in electoral categories (nytimes.com, 24.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "The Man Most Responsible for Ending Roe Worries That It Could Hurt His Party"). 

In addition to the topic of abortion, the previous core topic of the culture war, Evangelical factions within the Republican Party will campaign to end same-sex marriage and attack the LGBTQ community. The Republican Party of Texas has in its recently adopted new program homosexualität referred to as an "abnormal life plan". In Arizona has the Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who is backed by Trump, has been campaigning for a bill that would make visiting children illegal drag shows should be banned - a hot topic in the United States at the moment. In Florida has governor Ron De Santis — he is considered the rising star after Trump — signed legislation banning the teaching of sexual orientation and gender identity in junior high schools. This year alone, 23 states have introduced more than 300 bills aimed at restricting LGBTQ rights. This list could be extended. All of this sounds like dating Viktor Orbans Hungary, which US conservatives see as a role model. The future battlefields of Culture War are staked out. But what will become of the "Land of the Free"? It sounds almost comforting what the New York Times states in the report from which this information was derived: "Most of these ideas stand no chance of becoming law in the face of opposition from Democrats and moderate Republicans" (nytimes.com, 22.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: “After Roe, Republicans Sharpen Attacks on Gay and Transgender Rights”).

A decisive question will be in whose favor and against whom these highly emotional and ideologically charged disputes will ultimately have an effect. The religious fundamentalists among the electorate have voted Republicans in the past. But will their loud war cries deter moderate Republicans? An answer will only be possible after the election.

Demonizing the political opponent will play a major role in the coming elections. The question that arises is how much damage the extremes are doing to their own party Thomas B Edsall in an extensive treatise in the New York Times examined. One passage is notable for quoting an unnamed senior Republican: "They (the extremists in the two parties) differ in that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the squad" (among the Democrats) appear more “idealistic”. They want to get their far-left ideas through legislation. You prepare with it Nancy Pelosi (the Democratic House Majority Leader) may give a headache, but they have shown they will not go so far as to compromise government and the safety net that many families depend on.” 

The quoted high-ranking Republican describes the extreme actors in his own party, such as the MPs, much more critically Marjorie Taylor Greene from Georgia: "I hate to use a charged term, but I can't think of another: The MAGAGroup members act more like bullies - legislative bullies. When they can, they hold government bills and funding hostage for populist reasons and social media. They would even be proud to "shoot the hostages" because that would be popular with their base and on social media." (nytimes.com, 8.6.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: “How Much Damage Have Marjorie Taylor Greene and the 'Bullies' Done to the GOP?'; guest post by Thomas B Edsall).

The Democrats are watching the fierce primary clashes between the Republicans in some states with quiet joy and are hoping to be able to hold the wafer-thin majority in the Senate. Blake Hounshell quoted in the New York Times a Democratic Party strategist who described the Republican Senate slate as an “island of misfit toys”; analogously and somewhat loosely translated, a “gathering of backward little minds” – a motley collection of candidates that the Democrats hope to be able to describe as politically outside the political mainstream, as personally compressed and too close to Trump (nytimes.com, 5.7.2022; Blake Hounshell in New York Times-The Morning ). Indeed mixes Donald Trump In contrast to previous ex-presidents, he was very intensively involved in the nomination of candidates for his party and put some people on the electoral lists who are not unchallenged and accepted in the Republican Party. Trump primarily supports people who wholeheartedly believe in the “Big Lie” of the “stolen election” and proclaim it publicly. And he's using it to punish members of his party who voted with the Democrats in the House of Representatives to carry out the second impeachment trial. 

Meanwhile, the American election campaign is spilling over to Germany. On August 3.8.2022rd, XNUMX the Heilbronn voice, that the CDU chairman Friedrich Merz an event at the Baden-Württemberg state representation in Berlin with the senator and ultra-right Trump supporter Lindsey Graham canceled. The background was there, the reports Heilbronn voice, that participants close to the AfD were also expected to attend the event. (Heilbronn voice, 3.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Friedrich Merz pulls the emergency brake").

uncertainties

It can be expected that the election laws passed in many Republican states will have a negative impact on the Democrats. The restrictions on postal voting, the reduction in the number of polling stations and drop-off boxes for the ballot papers and other difficulties in voting are primarily intended to keep potential Democrat voters away from the ballot boxes. By cleverly cutting the voting districts and cutting up "party strongholds" (gerrymandering), a majority can be "cut" for one of the parties in states with the same number of seats in Congress.

Trump may not stand for election in 2022...

... but he's really involved. He's settling old scores, especially lashing out at Republicans who question the "Big Lie" and those who want to put the shockwaves of his presidency and himself behind them. At the same time, it is clear that he is preparing to fight for the White House again in 2024. Trump has not yet officially declared his candidacy, but has repeatedly hinted at it. It would therefore be a surprise if he did not compete again.

There are a variety of depictions in the American media to describe Trump's strategies. A key weakness of Trump's is his erratic and careless handling of the truth. During his tenure as President, he made 30.573 false or misleading statements (fact checker of Washington Post; quoted in Mirror online, 24.1.2021). He's still trying to prove the "Big Lie" about the "stolen election" over and over again looking backwards. The contents of MAGA program (Make America Great Again) are still central to large parts of the Republican Party and its supporters - a challenge for Europe! 

Among other things, Trump acts in arizona, a so-called swing state, who swings to the right. Primary elections were held there in August and "a number of Republicans on the list rushed to Donald J. Trump and to embrace his false narrative of the stolen election" (nytimes.com, May 5.5.2022, XNUMX: "In Arizona, a Swing State Swings to the Far Right"). There is still much ado about nothing from the Trump camp and his supporters, despite the fact that numerous courts have been unable to present evidence of widespread voter fraud.

Notably, both Trump and his former Vice President, Mike Pence, whom he has regarded as a traitor since January 6.1.2021, XNUMX, in the pre-election campaign in Arizona became active - but they supported different candidates for the governorship. Trump and Pence was once the paragon of the MAGA in the white house. Pence had been loyal to the miracle man for four years and has been written off by Trump since he – as was his job as Vice President – ​​on January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX. Joe Biden declared the winner of the presidential election. I have described elsewhere what happened on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX in Washington DC. 

Mike Pence supported in Arizona the candidacy of Karen Taylor Robson, a business woman phoenix; Trump stood behind Kari Lake, a former journalist for the TV station Fox News. Besides Taylor Robson and Brine gave it to the governorship of Arizona other Republican candidates. It was less about the political programs of the two candidates and more about the important supporters. pence in the lob Taylor Robson as the best choice for Arizona's Future. “While the Democrats are out Arizona pursuing the ruthless Biden-Harris program is Karen Taylor Robson the only candidate for governor who Arizona's secure borders and roads, empower parents, build great schools, and advance conservative values" (nytimes.com, 18.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Pence breaks with Trump again in endorsement for Arizona governor"). 

There were crucial differences in the tactical campaigning of the two candidates. Kari Lakes Fully echoing that of her supporter Trump, the strategy was, "Keep talking about 2020." She made conspiracy theories central to her campaign. Taylor Robson stated that the 2020 elections were not fair, but this issue was not the focus of her campaign. She spoke – like her supporter pence – about concrete political goals and said, for example, about wanting to complete the border wall with Mexico that had been started under Trump. (nytimes.com, May 5.5.2022, XNUMX: "In Arizona, a Swing State Swings to the Far Right"). 

In the primary elections on August 2.8.2022nd, XNUMX retained the one supported by Trump Kari Lake with 46,2 percent just the upper hand and will be against on November 8.11.2022th, XNUMX Katie Hobbs run by the Democrats, who won their primary with 72,8 percent. Taylor Robson received 44,4 percent of the votes. She had funded most of her campaign herself and had spent several million dollars more than her competitor on TV advertising alone Kari Lake. "In the end, Trump's support proved more valuable than anything else Ms. Taylor Robson could buy,” she judged New York Times (nytimes.com, 4.8/5.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Kari Lake, Backed by Trump, Wins Arizona's GOP Governor Primary").  

By early August, primaries were held in more than 30 states. Trump has endorsed more than 200 candidates; many of them entered the race unopposed or against poorly funded opponents. In Pennsylvania the "Trumpies" won, but there was in Georgia multiple defeats. There was the Republican governor Brian Kemp become a definite target for Trump because he is 2020 Joe Biden as the election winner Georgia had confirmed. Yet Kemp defeated the Trump-backed candidate hands down. Kemp must now on November 8.11.2022th, XNUMX against the well-known democrat Stacey Abrams compete, which he was only able to defeat four years ago.

The former interior minister of Georgia, Brad Raffensperger, a loyal Republican, defeated the Trump-backed candidate. Raffensperger had become known after Trump's defeat for refusing to "find" a few thousand votes for Trump Georgia to win.  Raffensperger had made important statements in a public meeting of the committee of inquiry on January 6, 2021 (nytimes.com, August 2.8.2022, XNUMX: "Where Trump's Endorsement Record Stands Halfway through Primary Season").

Kansas constitutional referendum - hope for Democrats - warning for Republicans

A special case in the round of primary elections was a referendum on August 2.8.2022, XNUMX in the conservative-dominated state Kansas. The Republicans there campaigned with power for the in the constitution of Kansas to remove the right to abortion from the constitution, in order to subsequently pass a restrictive abortion law in the Republican-controlled state parliament. The referendum thus became the first real test of the population's attitude after the Supreme Court ruling Süddeutsche Zeitung described the process as follows:

“In the 2020 elections Donald Trump won the state by 15 percentage points. Republicans have almost three times as many representatives in the local Senate as Democrats. They have thrown all their might behind the plan to remove the constitutional right to abortion. Church groups campaigned for it, the Archbishop of Kansas City in Kansas donated nearly $2,5 million to the related campaign called Value Them Both.”

The headline of the report SZ was: "For the Democrats, Kansas changes everything", because - contrary to the expectations of the conservative initiators - the attempt to abortion rights from the Constitution of Kansas to delete, rejected. "Nearly 60 percent of voters voted not to violate abortion rights... Republicans suffer crushing defeat -- Kansas gives hope back to Democrats" (quotes from sueddeutsche.de, 5.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "For the Democrats, Kansas changes everything"). Whether this change in mood by the midterms on November 8.11.2022th, XNUMX remains open.

But not only the outcome of the referendum in Kansas, but also the result of a by-election for Congress in Alaska shows that Republicans with the Culture War plated and their joy dances after the lifting of Roe vs Wade were staged too early. At the by-election in Alaska on August 16.8.2022, XNUMX, the democratic candidate won Mary Peltola. The by-election had become necessary because the longtime Republican holder of the seat in the House of Representatives had died in March 2022. The success of Mary Peltola was given special attention for several reasons: Arable land comes from the indigenous population group Alaskans and she defeated none other than Sarah Palin, the former icon of the radical conservatives tea party movement, former governor of Alaska and candidate for the vice presidency on the ticket of John McCain. Back then, in 2008, Barack Obama.  On top of that was Donald Trump personally after Alaska traveled to Palin to support. "The defeat is therefore also a defeat for Trump," she writes Suddeutsche Zeitung. Trump himself had 2020 Alaska won by a margin of 10 percentage points over Biden. The result of the by-election brought 51,5 percent for Arable land and 48,5 percent for Palin. 

A prominent issue in the election campaign was the right to abortion. Mary Peltola had advocated the preservation of this right; Abortion is in Alaska allowed. Sarah Palin had welcomed the ruling of the Supreme Court (sources: nytimes.com, 31.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Mary Peltola, a Democrat, Defeats Sarah Palin in Alaska's Special House Election" and: sueddeutsche.de, 1.9.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Palin surprisingly misses entry into Congress").       

2024 - A pivotal battle for the White House

Until the presidential election in November 2024 can and will Washington dc still much happened and still much water the Potomac River flow down. It is still unclear who the candidates of the two parties will be. With the Democrats Joe Biden as the incumbent president first access. But within the party there are also voices that doubt whether he should compete again in 2024. Could he once again excite the Democratic Party's base of voters? Would he face the tough arguments with the possible Republican candidate Donald Trump get through it again? Among other things, the question of age plays a role. Biden is now 79 years old; should he win, he would be 2025 when he took office in 82. "The job of president is a powerful challenge and the reality is, at the end of a second term the president would be closer to 2 than 90. This would be a key campaign issue," he said david axelrod, who planned the strategy for the two successful Obama election campaigns.

In the report of New York Times From which I gleaned this statement, there are contradicting opinions on the Democratic nomination question: “The Democrats need a fresh and determined leader for the 2024 presidential campaign. This can't be Biden" (Shelia Huggins, member of Democratic National Committee). Faiz Shakir, the 2020 senator campaign Bernie Sanders has conducted assumes that Joe Biden Donald Trump could hit a second time. "But should Republicans see a new face, about Gov Ron DeSantis from Florida nominate, Biden might not be the first choice" (nytimes.com, 11.6.2022/2024/XNUMX: “Should Biden Run in XNUMX? Democratic Whispers of 'No' Start to Rise").

The American climate miracle - A point for Biden and the Democrats

Elsewhere I have described how individual Democrats in the Senate left their own President out in the rain, such as the Senator Joe Manchin III from West Virginia and the senator Kryten Sinema from Arizona, when they passed the original $3,5 trillion legislative program "Build Back Better" hit the wall. But a miracle happened: On Sunday, August 7.8.2022th, 50, the Senate voted with a wafer-thin majority of 50:XNUMX plus the decisive vote of the Vice President Kamala Harris (as Chair of the Senate) dem "Inflation Reduction Act 2022" to. president Joe Biden signed the law on August 16.8.2022, XNUMX in the White House and then gave his pen to the Senator present Manchin to hand over. 

By skilfully using the provisions of the Senate's rules of procedure – the law regulates budgetary issues, among other things – the Filibuster Rule be bypassed. The 50 Republicans voted unanimously against the law, but the Democrats won with 51 votes. The greatest merit of this "climate protection miracle" - so the headline of the commentary Thomas Spang on January 9.8.2022th, XNUMX in the Heilbronn voice – due Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate Majority Leader. With great patience and prudence, with political and tactical skill, he kept his parliamentary group in line for weeks: "The parliamentary group was primarily focused on what is in the law - and not on what is not in it - although each of us wanted more ... We had to get the thread through the eye of the needle.” So brought Schumer his colleagues Manchin with the former finance minister Larry Summers together, the Manchin is said to have explained why the new spending will not lead to more inflation.

The result was legislation that enabled the US federal government's largest investment in the fight against climate change, at $370 billion. The United States wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent below 2005 levels by the end of the decade. The law will improve the services of the American health care system and there will be a 15 percent minimum tax for large companies.

Press releases on the law: 

1. nytimes.com,7.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Senate Passes Climate, Health and Tax Bill, With All Republicans Opposed";
2. sueddeutsche.de, 8.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: “Biden’s most important achievement”;
3. sueddeutsche.de: 8.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: Biden has to tremble until the last minute”; Commentary by Claus Hulverscheidt;
4. Heilbronn voice, August 9.8.2022, XNUMX: "The climate protection miracle"; Commentary by Thomas Spang).

The New York Times names an important side effect of the adoption of the Inflation Reduction Act 2022 for the Democrats: hope. Hope that the breakthrough in climate protection in the midterms pay off especially among younger voters for whom climate change is an important issue. But there is also hope for support from older people who benefit from the improvements in the performance system Medicare will benefit. 

The NYT points to a long-term change in the fundamental goals of the two political camps in the US Congress: There is less and less fighting about good laws for the benefit of the citizens. Rather, the struggle is to prevent such initiatives by the other side. In the vote on 7.8.2022/50/XNUMX, the Republicans did not meet this target. The XNUMX Republican members of the Senate voted unanimously against the investments in climate protection now enshrined in the law, for example against the promotion of solar and wind energy, against subsidies for the purchase of electric cars and against the expansion of energy-saving heating and cooling systems. But they could Inflation Reduction Act 2022 not prevent. Chuck Schumer held the 50 Democrats together until the final vote, the cliff of the filibuster cleverly circumnavigated and brought in the end Kamala Harris the package with her vote as President of the Senate over the hurdle. Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, the deputy chief of staff in the White House summed it all up happily: "The Democrats in Congress pulled it off - without help from the Republicans in Congress." And indeed, new polls when asked: "Which party should have the majority in Congress ?” for the first time this year, a majority for the Democrats (nytimes.com, 9.8.2022/8.11.2022/2024: "With Deal in Hand, Democrats Enter the Fall Armed With Something New: Hope"). But there is still a long way to go before the election date on November XNUMXth, XNUMX – and much further until the XNUMX election.   

Even with the Republicans, it is still unclear who will start the race in 2024. Undoubtedly stands Donald Trump currently still at the top of the possible list of candidates. But after everything that happened before and after 6.1.2021/2024/XNUMX - the day of the storming of the Capitol by its followers, it will not be a ticket in XNUMX Trump/Pence give more. Trump has been traveling the country for a long time, giving speeches that sound like election campaigns. And it continues to draw the crowds. Even at a major event Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on 6.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX in Dallas, TX Although he gave a long speech, he did not answer the question of whether he would run again in 2024. Christian Zaschke wrote about this in a comment in the Süddeutsche Zeitung: “Trump had so little to say that at times it seemed like he bored himself. He dutifully recited a few aggressive phrases, such as that “radical left lunatics and fascists” had destroyed the country from within and that's why it's about it go to save the USA. But he said that so often that there was only mild applause for it" (sueddeutsche.de, August 7.8.2022, XNUMX: “We talked for a long time and still said nothing”; comment by Christian Zaschke).  

explained at the end of July Donald Trump in a speech at America First Policy Institute, an institution at which about the details of Make America Great Again (MAGA) thinking about what his agenda for a second term might look like. As in his 2016 campaign, he wants to dry up the "swamp" and the "deep state". Congress is to pass historic reform, empowering the President to fire any corrupt, incompetent, or unnecessary bureaucrat. Furthermore, it should be enshrined in law that the federal government can use the National Guard to establish law and order without having to wait for the approval of the respective governor. 

Theda Skocpolo, political scientist and sociologist at the Harvard University explains what this would mean in political practice: Trump would a priori appoint like-minded, loyal, and lawless autocrats to run the judiciary, homeland security, and defense in particular. He would use the government apparatus to reward loyalists and punish opponents. The scientist assumes that the institutions in the country would not be able to survive a second Trump presidency because similar developments would take place at the state and federal court levels parallel to the federal level. "Discouragement, direct repression and public threats of violence would force most centrists and liberals to retreat" (nytimes.com, August 3.8.2022, 2025: "Trump Has Big Plans for XNUMX, and He Doesn't Care Whether You Think He'll Win"; guest comment by Thomas B Edsall).

In my opinion, there won't be a palace revolution within the Republican Party in the next two years. However, developments may occur that prevent a Trump candidacy:

• The final report of the committee for processing the events on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX will be so disadvantageous for Trump that the previously well-disposed media will withdraw their support and a serious process of rethinking among the electorate will begin;

• The Justice Department could indict Trump on criminal and tax violations. “The US judiciary is not investigating the ex-president over trifles Donald Trump", she writes Süddeutsche Zeitung (sueddeutsche.de, August 9.8.2022, XNUMX: "Disloyalty, fraud, attempted coup").

On 8.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX searched that FBI Trump's estate in Mar-a-Lago in  Florida. Among other things, it was about papers and documents that Trump had illegally taken with him when he left the White House. the Heilbronn voice reports that investigators removed at least 12 boxes of records (Heilbronn voice, 11.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: Gloomy days for Donald Trump"; further: Heilbronn voice, August 11.8.2022, XNUMX: “The air is getting thinner”; comment by Thomas Spang). Quoted on 12.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX CNN in the show New Day can The Washington Post with the message that FBI I was mainly looking for classified documents about nuclear weapons.    

The forecast of the commentator of the Heilbronn voice about the air that is getting thinner for Trump has now partially arrived. On September 21.9.2022, XNUMX, the state attorney general filed New York filed a civil lawsuit against Trump and several family members for fraud and tax violations. The accused are said to have increased or decreased their finances depending on their needs, in order to get loans more easily or to have to pay less tax. Further investigations against Trump are still ongoing, for example for taking classified documents to his private residence in Florida, for attempting to incite voter fraud in Georgia and for his role in the storming of the Capitol on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX (sueddeutsche.de, 21.9.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Trump will be impeached").

Immediately after the search, Trump, who made it public himself, said it was an attack by "radical left Democrats." He claimed the Democrats were desperate to prevent him from running for president again in 2024 (sueddeutsche.de,12.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "FBI is said to have also searched Trump's mansion for documents about nuclear weapons"). In a detailed report by New York Times is described that FBI also have secret documents marked during the search "classified/TS/SCI" - an abbreviation for "Top secret/sensitive compartment information" found. These documents may only be viewed in specially secured government offices. The search was part of an investigation into possible violations of three laws: 

• The US Espionage Act;
• a law providing for the destruction and concealment of documents for the purpose of obstructing government investigations;
• a regulation for the protection of official records and documents.

"It is not clear why Trump took these documents with him, even though he should have known that this would bring him another legal firestorm," she writes New York Times (nytimes.com, August 12/13.8.2022, XNUMX: “Files Seized From Trump Are Part of Espionage Act Inquiry”).

If Trump is no longer able or unwilling to compete in 2024 for any reason, for example because the unprecedented events of January 6.1.2021th, XNUMX catch up with him, this does not mean the end of Make America Great Again (MAGA). After a long silence, the former vice president is also digging Mike Pence the starting blocks for a presidential candidacy in 2024. For four years he had served Trump faithfully and was silent about many of Trump's escapades or even defended them. As an evangelical Christian pence tied that constituency to Trump, even though Trump wasn't exactly a "saint." When he refused Trump and his unconstitutional ideas after the 2020 election, his life was in danger on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX and he became a hero. But basically he just did what the vice president is told to do by the American constitution. pence is - in contrast to his former "boss" - loyal to the constitution. Important for any future activities: He has not changed his basic political attitudes as a conservative evangelical Christian: "I am a Christian, a conservative and a republican," he describes himself Süddeutsche Zeitung describes pence as Trump's "devout twin" - with "Christian" for pence probably means "white". After the Supreme Court's abortion ruling, he called for the fight against abortion to continue in all 50 states. Different to pence Trump avoided loud victory fanfares after the verdict, probably because he suspects that the complicated field abortion can become a boomerang for him and his party. 

On 23.5.2022 has Mike Pence in Georgia for the nomination for Republican governor Brian Kemp campaigned and thus publicly opposed Trump for the first time. For Trump was Kemp to the red rag when he constitutionally declared Biden’s election victory in Georgia confirmed. Trump has the former senator out of revenge David Perdue sent into the race. Yet Perdue has against despite Trump's support Kemp - and thus also against Trump - lost by a huge margin. The heading of New York Times describes the tactics of pence: "Pence tiptoes away from Trump and lays the foundation for the '24 candidacy" (nytimes.com, May 23.5.2022, 24: Pence, Tiptoeing Away From Trump, Lays Groundwork for 'XNUMX Run").

Auch Brad Raffensperger, the current Republican Secretary of the Interior Georgia, who had refused to "find" a few thousand votes for Trump 2021 to win the election in Georgia to win, defeated the Trump-backed candidate in the primary for the Republican nomination for Secretary of the Interior Jody Hice. Hubert Wezel, the correspondent of Süddeutsche Zeitung in Washington, asked about Trump's power in and over the Republicans and gave a cautious answer: "Trump is obviously controversial within the party, and his word is no longer automatically law among the Republicans. But there are also very few party officials who would bet house and yard that Trump would lose the 2024 primary if he did run. In any case, when you travel in Republican America, you only ever see one name on flags and posters: Trump" (sueddeutsche.de, 25.5.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "The establishment is biting back").

Resigned after the Georgia primary pence At the end of July on the same day as Trump in Washington. He wants to unite the conservative movement - a remarkable admission on closer inspection: the American conservatives and the Republican Party are not an ideologically uniform bloc. Want pence actually get into the race for the White House, he has a difficult balancing act ahead of him. He would have to win over Trump fans in large numbers without alienating them right from the start of the venture. That's why he avoids talking at length about Trump's storming of the Capitol, even though Trump's gang of thugs yelled "Hang Mike Pence" on January 6.1.2021, XNUMX. "I came to look forward, not back," said pence  (sueddeutsche.de, 27.7.2022/6.1.2021/XNUMX: "Trump's Vice Attacks"). At the same time, like many Republicans, he cheated his way around a clear statement about the events of January XNUMXth, XNUMX. You will have to do this at the latest when the final report of the committee of inquiry proves the entanglements and machinations of Trump and his helpers. 

Governor Ron DeSantis - a new conservative star is rising

Während Donald Trump once again tried to escape the dangers of his future plans - meanwhile a private law indictment came from the state attorney general's office New York added – the star of a serious competitor for the presidency in 2024 rises: Ron De Santis, the Republican governor of Florida puts himself in a clever position – just in case Trump should stay on the street. Trump is upset "because he's the 43-year-old DeSantis than his creation" (sueddeutsche.de, 7.7.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "From Trump's favorite to greatest competitor"). Writes about the history Christian Zaschke in the Süddeutsche Zeitung, Trump have DeSantis five years ago Fox News seen. "There, DeSantis, then a largely unknown congressman, drew attention to himself with sharp, strictly conservative rhetoric, with latent aggressiveness and an attitude that expressed: I won't let anyone tell me anything. Trump liked that, and when DeSantis competed for the governorship in 2018 Florida applied, he promised him his support and helped him in the election campaign.”

DeSantis is up for re-election there in November and he is campaigning without Trump: "He hardly ever mentioned the name Trump after his election," writes Zaschke. But that doesn't mean that his political agenda differs in content from Trump's. “No one else represents the cornerstones of “Trumpism” as naturally as the rough-and-ready governor from the Sun State,” writes Thomas Spang, the USA correspondent of the Heilbronner Voice (Heilbronner Voice, August 2.8.2022, XNUMX: "New Trump at the start"). However, both have DeSantis as well as most pence the same tactical problem: Both are audibly digging the starting blocks for 2024, but both are still standing to date Donald Trump In the way. Both must therefore not alienate the strong Trump fan club at the moment, because both need precisely these Trump fans in order to have a chance of moving into the White House in 2024 - should Trump's star still go down by 2024.

The media describe him as “Trump with a brain”. DeSantis. Along with right-wing Republicans, he has the far-right as a congressman Freedom Caucus co-founded. As governor of Florida he sees this state at the forefront of the culture war against the liberals and supports strict restrictions on abortion rights (Heilbronn voice, August 2.8.2022, XNUMX: "New Trump at the start"). A new law in Florida prohibits abortion after the 15th week of pregnancy, including after rape or incest. But unlike Mike Pence, who wants to continue the "fight against abortion" in all 50 states immediately after the Supreme Court ruling, DeSantis is now holding back on this explosive topic: He too may have recognized that since the referendum in Kansas became an anchor of hope for the Democrats.

Two descriptions of DeSantis agenda: 

"The DeSantis agenda would a Mega MAGA agenda - a Mega Make America Great Again - be without the whining about 2020 and without the Trump bragging. the DeSantis Agenda – he made that clear in his re-election campaign — fueling the culture war fires and would lead the GOP (the Republican Party) into a post-Trump presidency” (Alison Dagnes, Professor of Political Science at the Shippensburg University). 

The political scientist and sociologist already quoted earlier Theda Skocpol from the Harvard University expects that – with or without Trump – Trumpism will take over the Republican Party and will most likely endure. "DeSantis obviously has dictatorial leanings and would certainly act accordingly to eviscerate the federal authorities and turn the security agencies into Praetorian Guards and election manipulators as he does in Florida has already done… organizations like the networks Steve Bannons will support him and they already have ready plans” (quotes from nytimes.com, August 3.8.2022, 2025: "Trump Has Big Plans for XNUMX, and He Doesn't Care Whether You Think He'll Win"; guest post by Thomas B Edsall).

But not only this extremely conservative agenda makes DeSantis attractive to a slowly growing number of Republicans. In a comprehensive description of the political career of the governor of Florida is in the New York Times Sarah Longwell, the editor of the centre-right anti-Trump news and opinion website The Bulwark quoted with this brief statement: "They see in him someone who frees them from having to defend Trump over and over again" (nytimes.com, 13.9.2022/6.1.2021/54: "Is Ron DeSantis the Future of the Republican Party?"). Despite the public hearings of the committee investigating the events of January 2020, XNUMX, the polls for Trump have not changed significantly. But at least XNUMX percent of voters say his actions against the XNUMX election result are a threat to democracy. About half of the electorate believe Trump seriously violated federal criminal laws (nytimes.com, 22.9.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Trump Support Remains Unmoved by Investigations, Poll Finds"). However, there is a public discussion about the secret documents Trump took to his private estate and about the indictment of the Attorney General New York because of the violation of financial and tax laws just beginning. 

Back to Ron De Santis: Like Trump, he doesn't seem to value the advice of his advisory staff. Some senior officials are said to have had little contact with him for months at the beginning of his tenure. In the legislature Florida is the macabre-sounding joke that DeSantis' closest confidant is his wife Casey desantis and Jesus Christ. DeSantis, so will in the New York Times quoted by a member of his campaign team from 2018, has occupied an almost mythological place in the imagination of some Republicans (nytimes.com, 13.9.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "Is Ron DeSantis the Future of the Republican Party?").

As things stand, one of the three named candidates is likely to become the Republican presidential nominee. However, should Trump fall by the wayside in the meantime, a completely new situation would arise. Then we would have to reckon with other applicants who are primarily concerned with increasing their level of awareness. I don't need to elaborate on the fact that the Trump years damaged the country and American society. But even with the other two possible candidates, there is little hope for the United States of overcoming the deep division. pence and DeSantis are Trump students and supporters of MAGA politics. There is currently no serious alternative to this among the Republicans. 

That is why the conservative voters in 2022 and especially in 2024 are faced with a decision that has hardly been seen before: they have the choice between safeguarding the free democratic system or sliding further into autocracy. The decisive factor will be whether at least part of this electorate - despite all the admiration for Trump and MAGA - values ​​respect for the constitution and rejects further steps towards autocracy. 

What's all this to Europe? - Attempt at a summary

Anyone who has worked their way through to this point may have gotten an impression of a country and a society that is at odds with itself. In the United States, as in other countries, there is a larger segment of the population that lingers on dreams of the good old days. Many are dissatisfied with the current picture that their country offers them. They fear that with the growing diversity, the certainties, the idyll of the 1950s, will be lost "Ike" Eisenhower was its president and the traditional image of society – white, Christian and above all male – was not called into question. I'm not sure that Americans, who feel at home in this demographic, give any thought to what the concrete future of the United States could or should be. Emotions determine their imagination; they are hardly interested in politics. The number of non-voters in America has always been high, and it may be that it will continue to rise because even more people have simply resigned to the complexity of political problems and contexts.

In a 1960 pamphlet issued by the U.S. Information Service, "Democracy in the United States" the political parties were described as follows:

"...that the lack of sharp antagonisms between the two major parties in the present situation reflects the high degree of consensus that exists among the broad majority of the American people in fundamental affirmation of the existing system of government and the current social order. For this reason, it is not the goals set by the parties that differ in many respects, but only the ways they propose to achieve these goals. The free democratic constitution, the system of the free market economy, the exclusion of religious conflicts, the protection of the individual personality and other essential elements of American democracy are practically above any political discussion in the USA.

("Democracy in USA”; published by the US Information Service Bad Godesberg (1960). Note in pamphlet: US Information Service pamphlets are available free of charge from America Houses).

That description sounds like it's from another world. It hardly reflects the current state of the two American parties and US society. The ability of Democrats and Republicans to find compromises across party lines has all but disappeared - and when that happens, as recently with gun control, it is said to be a miracle. The two parties often have diametrically opposed approaches to social changes in the country, such as the issue of diversity and the protection of minority rights. It's no longer about different paths to a common goal. An important goal of the Democrats is the shaping and protection of the rights of social minorities. Republicans tend to follow more traditionally conservative principles, such as white, Christian, male. In the last few decades, for example, this has changed in the field of education Culture War developed, in which there is a struggle about the educational content to be taught in public schools and about the extent to which the state can and may intervene in the way citizens live their lives. The Supreme Court has poured fuel on the fire several times recently. To put it in general terms: America is becoming more and more self-absorbed. But on closer inspection it becomes clear: not only the two parties but also many organizations and groups of civil society are preoccupied with themselves. It is precisely this that leads to the fragmentation of society and makes political compromises so difficult. 

Thomas Spang, the America Correspondent Heilbronn voice has this dilemma of the Republicans and American politics using the example of the political cold position and the resulting primary defeat of liz cheney in Wyoming as described:

“Donald Trump has transformed what was once a centre-right party into a right-wing gossip squad, in which anti-democracy forces, conspiracy theorists, culture warriors, abortion extremists, gun enthusiasts and racists set the tone. An opposition is needed that can be elected without endangering democracy itself. That can no longer be said of the Trump Republicans.” (Heilbronn voice, 18.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: “End of an Era”; comment by Thomas Spang).

In other words, a larger portion of Trump Republicans and their supporters have lost their political stance and attitude toward their country's constitution. They only act as an echo chamber of the "great master". You can't make a state with this part of American politics. How much the "Big Lie" has eaten into the Republican Party shows that of the 8.11.2022 Republican candidates nominated so far for the November 552, 201 elections for Congress and for offices in the states, XNUMX Joe Biden completely refuse to win the 2020 elections. A further 61 doubt the result and others do not answer this question. Nearly 170 accept Biden's election fully or with restrictions (sueddeutsche.de, September 27.9.2022, XNUMX: "The election result deniers want to power").

The Trump dilemma of Americans (and others):

“If Mr. Trump runs again, he could win. But that risk cannot be avoided - we are in a situation where there are no options without dilemmas." (nytimes.com, 21.8.2022/XNUMX/XNUMX: "There Is No Happy Ending to America's Trump Problem"; guest post by Damon Linker).

"Should the Trump camp regain power and hold its ground there in the long term, the democratic system must be expected to be eroded." (sueddeutsche.de, September 6.9.2022, XNUMX: “With God and by force”; from Joseph Croitoru)

Also the journalist and columnist I value New York Times Thomas L Friedman, keeps dealing with the question of what will and could become of the United States in the foreseeable future. He recently reported on his lunch invitation to the White House on May 16.5.2022, XNUMX - "off the record" - he could therefore not write about what the President said. Given the occasion, Putin's attack on Ukraine was one of the topics of conversation, and Friedman describes the commitment of Biden and the USA to a unified appearance of the NATO and other democratic states. And then Biden's view of his own country: Biden is concerned that while he was bringing the West together, he might not be able to bring America together again.

Friedman quotes what allied statesmen said after Biden's election: "Thank God, America is back - but for how long?" This question contains the uncertainty and concern with which Europe and the EU are looking forward to the American elections on November 8.11.2022th, XNUMX. What happens if Republicans regain control of the US Congress? And what should happen Donald Trump Be re-elected President of the United States in 2024?

It is not up to the Europeans to make voting recommendations. The Americans have to decide for themselves, but the Europeans can convey their point of view. The question "What if ...?" is in the air. The future relationship between Europe, the EU and Germany and the USA will occupy us again. This fits the title of issue 7/8/2022 of the magazine Neue Gesellschaft/Frankfurt issues: “Finally make Europe! This is easy to say and write, and in reality it is full of inconsistencies. The renowned historian Heinrich August Winkler recently pointed out that even with the term "European sovereignty" the objectives of French and German European politicians are not identical: "Macron means with "European sovereignty" primarily more independence from the USA and NATO, which in no way coincides with the foreign and security policy priorities of the Federal Republic of Germany, but does reveal one Charles de Gaulle, the founder of the Fifth Republic, interpretation of French reasons of state "European sovereignty" often associated with “the further development of the EU’s association of states into a European federation, even into a European federal state, to which the coalition agreement of the traffic light expressly commits itself at the urging of the European politicians of all three parties.”

Similarly problematic describes Winkler Hence the goal of a common EU foreign policy: “The EU's claim to speak with one voice to the outside world cannot be redeemed if individual members like ... Hungary join forces with a sworn opponent of the EU like Putin's Russia. "More Europe" will therefore hardly be possible within the framework of the EU of 27." (After the election result of September 25.9.2022, 27 in Italy, another slowdown country will be added within the EU of XNUMX). 

It sounds like a member of the Heilbronner Europe Union bitter and unfortunately also realistic, if Winkler states: "The striving for an "ever closer cooperation" is, given the current situation, more realistic than that for an "ever closer union" (ipg, 18.7.2022; Heinrich August Winkler: "European misunderstanding").

Auch Heinrich August Winkler speaks the "worst case" at the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. The name Trump He does not name this, but writes that the outcome of the 2024 elections is “threatening for them”. It is hardly to be expected that the EU will solve its long-simmering basic problems in the remaining two years – such as the reform of the decision-making process through expanded possibilities for majority decisions – will be able to solve, especially those areas that will require a change in the Treaties. A step forward would therefore be if the “willing” were found to solve at least a few moderately difficult problems together – for example in refugee and migration policy.

But this is also part of the current reality: Putin's War and its consequences are at the top of the European list of priorities. 

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